How Economic and Financial Indicators Shape Bond Market Performance in Asia?

  • Zetty Zahureen Mohd Yusoff Universiti Teknologi MARA
  • Sharifah Heryati Syed Nor Universiti Teknologi MARA
  • Rozita Naina Mohamed Universiti Teknologi MARA
  • Mohamed Shahril Mohamad Besir Universiti Teknologi MARA
  • Nik Rozila Nik Mohd Masdek Universiti Teknologi MARA
  • Nor Lela Ahmad Universiti Teknologi MARA
  • Anusara Sawangchai Universiti Teknologi MARA
Keywords: Macroeconomic, Lending Interest Rate, Inflation, Stock Market Performance, Gold Price, Asia

Abstract

The focus of this study is to examine the effects of macroeconomic and financial indicators on bond market performance in Asia countries. This study utilizes a regression analysis to measure the relationship between inflation, interest rate, stock market performance, and gold price in six selected nations: India, Indonesia, China, Vietnam, South Korea, and Turkey, from 2014 until 2024. The validity of the data was diagnostically checked by performing a VIF procedure, autocorrelation test, and normality test on residuals, and the data were analysed via EViews software. The analysis showed mixed findings; however, two major variables that negatively affects the performance of bond markets in Asia are the “inflation and stock market,” which reflects global economic stability in the selected countries. An abrupt or sudden rise in the lending interest rate can trigger market volatility, leading to losses for bondholders and potentially discouraging corporate investment (Alam & Uddin, 2009). Moreover, the monetary policy stances adopted by central banks have systemically important ramifications for the valuation of both bond and equity markets on a global scale (Jang & Atukeren, 2019). For practical implications, this study suggests that policymakers pay extra attention to inflation to ensure a sustainable economic condition. To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this study is the first to examine the combination of both economic and financial shocks, along with gold price, both pre-and-post COVID-19 pandemic, focusing on Asia.

Downloads

Download data is not yet available.

References

Abdelkader, N. A. M., & Wahba, H. H. (2024). A Proposed Multidimensional Model for Predicting Financial Distress: An Empirical Study on Egyptian Listed Firms. Future Business Journal, 10(1), 42. https://doi.org/10.1186/s43093-024-00328-2
Abdullah, A., & Abu Bakar, M. J. (2015). The Application of Gold Price, Interest Rates and Inflation Expectations in Capital Markets. International Journal of Economics and Finance, 7(2), 293-302. https://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/document?repid=rep1&type=pdf&doi=e69501471003694a55f6a6f57c75bf529b06a26e
Akinwande, M., Dikko, H., & Samson, A. (2015). Variance Inflation Factor: As a Condition for the Inclusion of Suppressor Variable(s) in Regression Analysis. Open Journal of Statistics, 5, 754-767. https://doi.org/10.4236/ojs.2015.57075.
Aksoy, M. T. (2023). Financial Stability and Economic Competitiveness in Turkey. Journal of Business and Economic Sciences 10(1), 43-55.
Alam, M. M., & Uddin, M. G. S. (2009). Relationship between Interest Rate and Stock Price: Empirical Evidence from Developed and Developing Countries. Journals International Journal of Business and Management 4(3), 43-51.
Asgharian, H., Christiansen, C., & Hou, A. J. (2015). Effects of Macroeconomic Uncertainty on the Stock and Bond Markets. Finance Research Letters, 13, 10-16. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/j.frl.2015.03.008
Asteriou, D. (2008). Country Financial and Political Risk: The Case of Indonesia, Malaysia and Philippines. International Journal of Monetary Economics and Finance, 1(2). https://doi.org/10.1504/ijmef.2008.019220
Bai, M., & Ho, L. (2022). How Do Gold and Oil React to the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Review. Energy & Environment, 34(7), 2876-2902.
Baker, M., & Wurgler, J. (2012). Comovement and Predictability Relationships Between Bonds and the Cross-section of Stocks. The Review of Asset Pricing Studies, 2(1).
Bauer, M., & Rudebusch, G. (2013). What Caused the Decline in Long-term Yields? FRBSF Economic Letter, 19. https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:fip:fedfel:y:2013:i:july8:n:2013-19
Berry, Y. (2021). Corporate Bond Price Phenomenon on the Indonesia Stock Exchange in 2016-2018
Menejemen Bisnis, 11(1). https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.22219/mb.v11i1.14892
Can, L., & Nguyen, D. (2021). The Emerging Asia Pacific Capital Markets: Vietnam CFA Institute Research Foundation Briefs. https://ssrn.com/abstract=3836906 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3836906
Chetty, A. W. P. (2020). How To Formulate a Research Strategy? Project Guru. Retrieved 13 July from https://www.projectguru.in/how-to-formulate-a-research-strategy/
Chowdhury, A., Ratna, T. S., Akhter, T., & Hossain, S. F. A. (2024). Rise of Inflation and Formation of Interest Rate on Loans in Industrial Sector: A VECM Approach to Assess the Impact on Total Industrial Production from Evidence of Bangladesh. Heliyon, 10(3). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.heliyon.2024.e24976
Cui, B., Ge, L., & Grecov, P. (2025). Bond Defaults in China: Using Machine Learning to Make Predictions. International Review of Finance, 25(1), e70010. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1111/irfi.70010
Das, D. K. (2014). Evolving Domestic Bond Markets and Financial Deepening in Asia. Global Economy Journal 14(1), 89-112.
Dhanaraj, S., Gopalaswamy, A. K., & Babu, S. (2015). Dynamic Interdependence Between US and Asian Markets: An Empirical Study
Journal of Financial Economic Policy, 5(2). https://doi.org/10.1108/17576381311329670
Dhutia, D. (2025). Foreign Flows Into India Bonds to Come Off Record Highs in 2025. Retrieved 14 June 2025, from https://www.reuters.com/markets/rates-bonds/foreign-flows-into-india-bonds-come-off-record-highs-2025-2025-01-01/
Díaz, A., Esparcia, C., & López, R. (2022). The Diversifying Role of Socially Responsible Investments During the COVID-19 Crisis: A Risk Management and Portfolio Performance Analysis. Economic Analysis and Policy, 75, 39-60. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eap.2022.05.001
Dixit, J. K., & Gupta, S. K. (2020). Exploring the Relation between Interest Rate and Stock Market Indices - An ARDL Approach. International Journal of Public Sector Performance Management 6(1).
Duong, T. H. (2023). The Gold Price – Inflation Relation in the Case of Vietnam: Empirical Investigation in the Presence of Structural Breaks. Asian Journal of Economics and Banking, 7(2), 217-233. https://doi.org/10.1108/AJEB-05-2022-0054
Duran, N. ?., & Demirkale, Ö. (2021). The Factors Affecting the Interest Rates: The Example of Fragile Five Countries. Gazi Journal of Economics and Business
Dwi, K., & Nelmida. (2019). The Impact of Interest Rate, Inflation Rate, Time to Maturity and Bond Rating: Indonesia Case. International Journal of Economics, Business, and Entrepreneurship, 2(1). https://doi.org/10.23960/ijebe.v2i1.52
Frost, J. (2024). How To Interpret R-squared in Regression Analysis? https://statisticsbyjim.com/regression/interpret-r-squared-regression/
Fu, J. (2024). The Impact and Prospect of China’s Low Interest Rates on the Economy [10.1051/shsconf/202420704024]. SHS Web Conferences, 207. https://doi.org/10.1051/shsconf/202420704024
Fung, H.-G., “Wilson”, L. Q., & and Zhang, F. (2019). The Development of China’s Bond Market. The Chinese Economy, 52(1), 107-123. https://doi.org/10.1080/10971475.2018.1523982
Gherghina, ?. C. (2023). The Impact of COVID-19 on Financial Markets and the Real Economy. Economies, 11(4).
Hack, M., & Close, C. C. (2013). East Asian Corporate Bond Markets. RBA Bulletin.
Hale, G. (2011). Could We Have Learned from the Asian Ffinancial Crisis of 1997–98? FRBSF Economic Letter(feb28), 06. https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:fip:fedfel:y:2011:i:feb28:n:2011-06
Hassan, M. K., Djajadikerta, H. G., Choudhury, T., & Kamran, M. (2022). Safe Havens in Islamic Financial Markets: COVID-19 Versus GFC. Global Finance Journal, 54, 100643. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gfj.2021.100643
Ibrahimov, O., Vancsura, L., & Parádi-Dolgos, A. (2025). The Impact of Macroeconomic Factors on the Firm’s Performance—Empirical Analysis from Türkiye. Economies, 13(4). https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.3390/economies13040111
IndiaBonds. (2024). The Impact of Inflation on Bond Investments. IndiaBonds. https://www.indiabonds.com/bonduni/blogs/the-impact-of-inflation-on-bond-investments/
Jang, J. Y., & Atukeren, E. (2019). Sustainable Local Currency Debt: An Analysis of Foreigners’ Korea Treasury Bonds Investments Using a LA-VARX Model. Sustainability, 11(13).
Jansen, D. (2021). How To Choose Your Research Methodology https://gradcoach.com/choose-research-methodology/
Jape, S., & Ambhore, M. (2019). Study of Rising Benchmark 10-Year Bond Yield and Its Relevance to Economic Factors Journal of Management 6(21-30).
Jeasakul, P., Lim, C. H., & Lundback, E. (2014). Why Was Asia Resilient? Lessons from the Past and for the Future. Journal of International Commerce, Economics and Policy, 05(02), 1450002. https://doi.org/10.1142/S1793993314500021
Kang, J., & Pflueger, C. E. (2015). Inflation Risk in Corporate Bonds. The Journal of Finance, 70(1), 115-162. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1111/jofi.12195
Kang, L. H. (2012). The uses of Asianization: figuring crises, 1997-98 and 2007-? American Quarterly, 64(3).
Khan, G. R., Abdulrahman, A. T., Alamri, O., Iqbal, Z., & Ahmad, M. (2021). Risk Analysis of Gold Prices in Pakistan Using Extreme Value Theory. Mathematical Problems in Engineering, 2021(1), 2704142. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1155/2021/2704142
Kumamoto, M., & Zhuo, J. (2020). Government Bond Market Integration in ASEAN Countries. Asian Economic and Financial Review, 10. https://doi.org/10.18488/journal.aefr.2020.103.289.312
Kumar, P., & Singh, V. K. (2023). Examining the Time Varying Spillover Dynamics of Indian Financial Indictors from Global and Local Economic Uncertainty. Journal of Quantitative Economics, 21(1), 99-121. https://doi.org/10.1007/s40953-022-00333-8
Lee, S. (2025). A Comprehensive Guide to Durbin-Watson Test in Regression Models.
McKay, D. R., & Peters, D. A. (2019). Bond Basics and the Yield Curve. Plastic Surgery, 27(1).
Mead, R. (2024). Preparing for Market Volatility: Why Bonds Should Be a Key Component of Portfolios Today
Economic and Market Commentary. https://www.pimco.com/au/en/insights/preparing-for-market-volatility-why-bonds-should-be-a-key-component-of-portfolios-today
Min, O. S.-m. (2025). BOK Holds Key Rate Unchanged Amid Weak Currency, Trump Uncertainty. YonHap News. https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20250116003452320
Mishra, V., & Nangru, P. (2024). Expanding India’s Bond Market
https://www.lexology.com/library/detail.aspx?g=2cc1de28-b0d8-4e2b-8d7b-480148608f2f
Moon, I. J., Yang, D. Y., & Huh, I. (2015). The Changes in China's Bond and Foreign Exchange Market and Their Effects on Korea KIEP Research Paper. https://doi.org/ http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2770204
Nair, K. S., & Thenmozhi, M. (2012). Macroeconomic Factors and Conditional Bond Volatility: Evidence from Emerging and Developed Bond Markets. American Journal of Finance and Accounting, 2(4), 326-345. https://doi.org/10.1504/AJFA.2012.046875
Neemey, P., & Sahay, N. (2019). Indian Corporate Bond Market: An Analysis of Growth and Impact of Macroeconomic Determinants. Vision, 23(3), 244-254. https://doi.org/10.1177/0972262919850925
Rose, A. K. (2014). The Bond Market: An Inflation-Targeter's Best Friend In N. B. o. E. R. (NBER) (Ed.), Working Paper Series The US.
Santosa, P. W. (2021). Macroeconomic Indicators and Yield Curve of Indonesian Government Bond. Business, Management and Economics Engineering, 19(1), 34-48. https://doi.org/10.3846/bmee.2021.13167
Schaar, R. v. d. (2025). Indonesia Investments February 2025 Report Indonesia-Investments. https://www.indonesia-investments.com/news/news-columns/indonesia-investments-february-2025-report-introduction/item9795?
Sharma, A., & Kumar, A. (2020). A Review Paper on Behavioral Finance: Study of Emerging Trends. Qualitative Research in Financial Markets, 12(2), 137-157.
Sharma, S. C., Chhabra, B., & Saxena, N. (2020). Empirical Study on the Factors Affecting Bond Market Returns-Evidence from Indian Markets. International Journal of Bonds and Derivatives 4(2).
Shroders. (2025). Perspective for Year Ahead 2025: Asian Bonds. https://www.schroders.com/en-hk/hk/individual/insights/year-ahead-2025-asian-bonds/
Sia, P.-C. (2023). Asymmetric Effects of Inflation Rate Changes on the Stock Market Index: The Case of Indonesia. Journal of International Studies 16(1).
Tainer, E. M. (2012). National Income and Product Accounts. In Using Economic Indicators to Improve Investment Analysis (pp. 23-51). https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1002/9781119201557.ch2
Usman, B., Chandra, F. D., & Syofyan, S. (2021). Determinant of Indonesian Government Bond Yield in Domestic Primary Market. Media Ekonomi, 28(2).
Vanneaux, C., & Plaque, N. (2025). Bond Market Volatility Presents More Opportunities for Multi-Asset Investors. https://www.axa-im.com/investment-institute/asset-class/multi-asset/bond-market-volatility-presents-more-opportunities-multi-asset-investors
Villafuerte, J., & Yap, J. T. (2015). Managing Capital Flows in Asia: An Overview of Key Issues In A. D. B. Economics (Ed.), Working Paper Series No. 464.
Wahyuningsih, M., Utami, W., Kurniasih, A., & Endri, E. (2025). Green Bond Yield Determinants in Indonesia: The Moderating Role of Bond Ratings. Journal of Risk and Financial Management, 18(4).
Xu, M., Fralick, D., Zheng, J. Z., Wang, B., Tu, X., & Feng, C. (2017). The Differences and Similarities Between Two-Sample T-Test and Paired T-Test
PubMed, 29(3).
Yudaruddin, R. (2022). Bank Concentration and Stability in Central Asia: The Effect of Capital Regulation and Financial Freedom. Journal of Eastern European and Central Asian Research 9(2). https://doi.org/10.15549/jeecar.v9i2.733
Yulia, V. S., Kristina, A. O., Ekaterina, A. N., Eugene, A. K., & Alina, S. U. (2019, 2019/12/12). Modeling of the Bond Issue Parameters for the Capital Structure Optimization. Proceedings of the Fourth Workshop on Computer Modelling in Decision Making (CMDM 2019),
Yun, J. (2019). Bond Risk Premia in a Small Open Economy with Volatile Capital Flows: The Case of Korea. Journal of International Money and Finance, 93, 223-243. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jimonfin.2019.01.007
Zhang, J., Zhang, Z., & Liu, Y. (2021). Impact of Interest Rate Risk on Supply Chain Network under Bank Credit and Trade Credit Financing. Mathematical Problems in Engineering, 2021(1), 4718912. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1155/2021/4718912
Zhou, X., & Cui, Y. (2019). Green Bonds, Corporate Performance, and Corporate Social Responsibility. Sustainability, 11(23).
Published
2025-09-13
How to Cite
Mohd Yusoff, Z. Z., Syed Nor, S. H., Mohamed, R. N., Mohamad Besir, M. S., Mohd Masdek, N. R. N., Ahmad, N. L., & Sawangchai, A. (2025). How Economic and Financial Indicators Shape Bond Market Performance in Asia?. Information Management and Business Review, 17(3(I), 330-345. https://doi.org/10.22610/imbr.v17i3(I).4703
Section
Research Paper