The Export-Led and Import-Led Growth Hypothesis Test in Malaysia, Indonesia and Singapore
Keywords:
Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Export-led growth hypothesis (ELGH), import-led growth hypothesis (ILGH), Vector Error Correction Model (VECM)
Abstract
There are various discussions on the hypothesis of export-led growth, but due to different methods, the results are controversial. Nonetheless, this research aims to examine the short-run and long-run relationships between exports, imports, services, and economic growth of Malaysia, Indonesia and Singapore in the time range from January 2010 to December 2021. The dynamic analysis approach utilized in this study is the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) to investigate whether Malaysia, Indonesia and Singapore are export-led growth (ELGH) or import-led growth hypothesis (ILGH) during the selected period. The findings indicate that, in addition to imports and economic growth, both countries show that there is a bilateral relationship between exports and economic growth in the short-run and long run. Thus, international trade is the engine of rapid growth, where the hypothesis of export-oriented growth and the hypothesis of import-oriented growth are reasonable. Therefore, the policymakers should ease the trade barrier to encourage trade liberalization and foreign investment, besides controlling the trade services.
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References
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Bakari, S., & Krit, M. (2017). The nexus between exports, imports and economic growth: Evidence from Mauritania. International Journal of Economics and Empirical Research, 5(1), 10–17.
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Chimobi, O.P. (2010). The estimation of the long-run relationship between economic growth, investment, and exports in Nigeria. International Journal of Business and Management, 5(4), 215-219.
Choong, C. K., Law, S. H., Yusop, Z., & Soo, S. C. (2005). Export-Led Growth Hypothesis in Malaysia: A Revisit. The ICFAI Journal of Monetary Economics, 3(4), 13–22.
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Department of Statistics Singapore. (2021). Singapore's international trade in goods and services 2020. Ministry of Trade and Industry.
Dickey, D. A., & Fuller, W. A. (1979). Distribution of the estimators for autoregressive time series with a unit root. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 74(366), 427–431. https://doi.org/10.2307/2286348
Ebrahimi, N. (2017). An analysis of the relationship of imports and economic growth in Iran (Comparison of systematic and unsystematic cointegration methods with neural network). International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, 7(2), 338–347. https://www.econjournals.com/index.php/ijefi/article/view/4458
Elbeydi, K. R. M., Hamuda, A. M., & Gazda, V. (2010). The Relationship between Export and Economic Growth in Libya Arab Jamahiriya. Theoretical and Applied Economics, 1(1), 69-76.
Enders, W. (1995). Applied econometric time series. John Wiley & Sons.
Engle, R. F., & Granger, C. W. J. (1987). Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing. Econometrica, 55(2), 251–276. https://doi.org/10.2307/1913236
Engle, R. F., & Granger, C. W. J. (1987). Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing. Econometrica, 55(2), 251–276. https://doi.org/10.2307/1913236
Granger, C. W. (1969). Investigating causal relations by econometric models and cross-spectral methods. Econometrica, 37(3), 424. doi:10.2307/1912791
Gries, T., & Redlin, M. (2020). Trade and economic development: Global causality and development- and openness-related heterogeneity. International Economics and Economic Policy, 17(4), 923-944
Gonzalo, J. (1994). Five alternative methods of estimating long-run equilibrium relationships. Journal of Econometrics, 60(1-2), 203-233. doi:10.1016/0304- 4076(94)90044-2
Grossman, G. M., & Helpman, E. (2015). Globalization and growth. American Economic Review, 105(5), 100–104. https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.p20151068
Hashim, A., Rambeli, N., Jalil, N., Zulkifli, N., Hashim, E., & Karim, N. A. (2019). Does the Export-Led Growth Hypothesis Hold Under the World Crisis Recovery Regime in Malaysia? Research in World Economy, 10(5), 9-19. https://doi.org/10.5430/rwe.v10n5p9
Hassouneh, I., & Fannoun, Z. (2019). The Causal Relationship between Exports, Imports, and Economic Growth in Palestine. Journal of Reviews on Global Economics, 8, 258-268.
Herzer, D. (2013). Cross-country heterogeneity and the trade-income relationship. World Development, 44, 194–211.
Hussain, I., Hussain, J., Khan, A. A., & Khan, Y. (2019). An analysis of the asymmetric impact of exchange rate changes on G.D.P. in Pakistan: Application of non-linear ARDL. Economics Research-Ekonomska Istrazivanja, 32(1), 3100–3117.
Imam, A. (2013). Faktor-faktor yang memengaruhi impor barang konsumsi di Indonesia [Factors influencing consumer goods imports in Indonesia]. Universitas Negeri Padang.
Johansen, S. (1995). Likelihood-based inference in cointegrated vector autoregressive models. Oxford University Press.
Johansen, S., & Juselius, K. (1990). Maximum likelihood estimation and inference on cointegration—with applications to the demand for money. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 52(2), 169–210. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-0084.1990.mp52002003.x
Kalaitzi, A. S., & Cleeve, E. (2017). Export-led growth in the UAE: Multivariate causality between primary exports, manufactured exports, and economic growth. Eurasian Business Review, 8, 341-365. https://doi.org/10.1007/s40821-017-0089-1
Kim, D.H., & Lin, S.C. (2009). Trade and Growth at Different Stages of Economic Development. Journal of Development Studies, 45(8), 1211-1224.
Kumar, M., Nargis, N., & Begam, A. (2020). Export-led growth hypothesis: Empirical evidence from selected South Asian countries. Asian Journal of Economic Modelling, 8(1), 1-15. doi:10.18488/journal.8.2020.81.1.15
Leamer, E. E., & Levinsohn, J. (1995). International trade theory: The evidence. In G. M. Grossman & K. Rogoff (Eds.), Handbook of International Economics (1st ed., Vol. 3, pp. 1339-1394). Elsevier.
Mayorova, E. (2019). Corporate social responsibility disclosure: Evidence from the European retail sector. Entrepreneurship and Sustainability Issues, 7(2), 891-905.
MacKinnon, J. G. (1996). Numerical distribution functions for unit root and cointegration tests. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 11(6), 601–618. https://doi.org/10.1002/(SICI)1099-1255(199611)11:6%3C601::AID-JAE417%3E3.0.CO;2-T
Md Albiman, M., & Suleiman, N. N. (2016). The relationship among export, import, capital formation, and economic growth in Malaysia. Journal of Global Economics, 4(2), 1-9. doi:10.4172/2375-4389.1000186
Medina-Smith, E. J. (2001). Is the export-led growth hypothesis valid for developing countries? A case study of Costa Rica (Policy Issues in International Trade and Commodities Study Series No. 7). United Nations.
Michelis, L., & Zestos, G. K. (2004). Exports, imports, and GDP growth: Causal relationships in six European Union countries. Journal of Economic Integration, 19(4), 485–497. https://doi.org/10.11130/jei.2004.19.4.485
Ministry of International Trade and Industry. (2021). Malaysia's external trade statistics for December 2020. Ministry of International Trade and Industry Malaysia.
Monetary Authority of Singapore. (2020). Monetary policy operations and liquidity management in Singapore.
Moyo, V., & Mapfumo, A. (2015). Causal relationship between imports and economic growth in Zimbabwe: An empirical analysis 1975 – 2013. The Economics and Finance Letters, 2(4), 35–44.
Noor, S. I., & Rambeli, N. (2018). Impact of export, import, and growth: Evidence using econometric analysis in Malaysia. International Journal of Accounting, Finance and Business, 3(16), 12-19.
Pazim, K. H. (2009). Panel data analysis of the export-led growth hypothesis in BIMP-EAGA countries. MPRA Paper No. 13264. https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/13264
Pesaran, M. H., Shin, Y., & Smith, R. J. (2001). Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 16(3), 289–326. https://doi.org/10.1002/jae.616
Phillips, P. C. B., & Perron, P. (1988). Testing for a unit root in time series regression. Biometrika, 75(2), 335–346. https://doi.org/10.1093/biomet/75.2.335
Rangasamy, L. (2008). Exports and economic growth: The case of South Africa. Journal of International Development, 21(5), 603-617.
Rani, R., & Kumar, N. (2018). Is there an export- or import-led growth in BRICS countries? An empirical investigation. Jindal Journal of Business Research, 7(1), 13–23.
Sakyi, D. (2011). Trade openness, foreign aid, and economic growth in post-liberalisation Ghana: An application of the ARDL bounds test. Journal of Economics and International Finance, 3(3), 146-156. https://doi.org/10.5897/JEIF.9000116
Saputra, F. D. (2015). Analisis impor Indonesia dari Cina. E-Jurnal Perdagangan, Industri dan Moneter, 3(1), 1-6.
Shandre, M., Thangavelu, M., & Gulasekaran, R. (2006). Is there export or import-led productivity growth in rapidly developing Asian countries? A multivariate VAR analysis. Applied Economics, 36(9), 1083–1093.https://doi.org/10.1080/00036840500391234
Stracca, L., Mileva, E., & Habib, M. M. (2016). The real exchange rate and economic growth: Revisiting the case using external instruments (Working Paper Series No. 1921). European Central Bank.
Solow, R. M. (1957). Technical change and the aggregate production function. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 39(3), 312–320. https://doi.org/10.2307/1926047
Sukirno, S. (2006). Teori Pengantar Ekonomi Makro. PT. RajaGrafindo Persada.
Sulaiman, M., & Md. Saad, N. (2009). An analysis of export performance and economic growth of Malaysia using co-integration and error correction models. Journal of Developing Areas, 43(1), 217-231.
Sulaiman, M., & Md. Saad, N. (2009). An analysis of export performance and economic growth of Malaysia using Co-integrating and error correction models. The Journal of Developing Areas, 43(1), 217-231. doi:10.1353/jda.0.0031
Tan, A., Brewer, P., & Liesch, P. W. (2007). Before the first export decision: Internationalisation readiness in the pre-export phase. International Business Review, 16(3), 294-309.
Tan, S. H., M. S. Habibullah, Mohamed Azali, & Baharumshah, A. Z. (2007). Testing for Financial-Led, Export-Led and Import-Led Growth Hypotheses on Four Asian 131 Emerging Economies. International Journal of Economics and Management 1(3), 307–35.
Tang, C. F., & Lai, Y. W. (2011). The Stability of Export-led Growth Hypothesis: Evidence from Asia's Four Little Dragons (MPRA Paper No. 27962).
Thangavelu, S. M., & Rajaguru, G. (2006). Is there export or import-led productivity growth in rapidly developing Asian countries? A multivariate VAR analysis. Applied Economics, 36 (pp. 1083-1093).
Thangavelu, S., & Rajaguru, G. (2004). Is there export or import-led productivity growth in rapidly developing Asian countries? A multivariate VAR analysis. Applied Economics, 36, 1083-1093. doi:10.1080/0003684042000246795.
Tsen, W. H. (2007). Exports, domestic demand, and economic growth: Some empirical evidence of the Middle East countries. Journal of Economic Cooperation, 28(2), 57-82.
Tuffour, J. K. (2010). Export-led growth hypothesis: A causality analysis of Ghana. International Journal of Economics, 4, 233-247.
Turay, M. J. (2019). Relationship between Exports, Imports and Economic Growth in Sierra Leone. Journal of Innovation and Social Science Research, ISSN 2591, Retrieved from https://www.researchgate.net/profile/MatthewTuray
Ullah, Z., Zaman, F., Farooq, M., & Javid, A. (2009). Cointegration and causality between exports and economic growth in Pakistan. European Journal of Social Sciences, 10(2), 264-272.
World Bank. (2018, April 3). Stronger open trade policies enable economic growth for all. https://www.worldbank.org/en/results/2018/04/03
World Bank. (2022). World development indicators: External balance on goods and services. https://databank.worldbank.org/
Zahonogo, P. (2016). Trade and economic growth in developing countries: Evidence from sub-Saharan Africa. Journal of African Trade, 3(1/2), 41-56. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.joat.2017.02.001
Awokuse, T. (2007). Trade openness and economic growth: Is growth export-led or import-led? Applied Economics, 40(2), 161-173.
Bakari, S., & Krit, M. (2017). The nexus between exports, imports and economic growth: Evidence from Mauritania. International Journal of Economics and Empirical Research, 5(1), 10–17.
Bakari, S. (2018). The impact of domestic investment on economic growth: New policy analysis from Algeria. Bulletin of Economic Theory and Analysis, 3(1), 35-51.
Bank Negara Malaysia. (2020). Annual report 2020. bnm.gov.my
Chimobi, O.P. (2010). The estimation of the long-run relationship between economic growth, investment, and exports in Nigeria. International Journal of Business and Management, 5(4), 215-219.
Choong, C. K., Law, S. H., Yusop, Z., & Soo, S. C. (2005). Export-Led Growth Hypothesis in Malaysia: A Revisit. The ICFAI Journal of Monetary Economics, 3(4), 13–22.
Choong, C. K., Yusop, Z., & Liew, K. S. (2003). Export-Led Growth Hypothesis in Malaysia: An Application of Two-Stage Least Squares Technique. International Finance, 3(September), 1–21.
Department of Statistics Singapore. (2021). Singapore's international trade in goods and services 2020. Ministry of Trade and Industry.
Dickey, D. A., & Fuller, W. A. (1979). Distribution of the estimators for autoregressive time series with a unit root. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 74(366), 427–431. https://doi.org/10.2307/2286348
Ebrahimi, N. (2017). An analysis of the relationship of imports and economic growth in Iran (Comparison of systematic and unsystematic cointegration methods with neural network). International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, 7(2), 338–347. https://www.econjournals.com/index.php/ijefi/article/view/4458
Elbeydi, K. R. M., Hamuda, A. M., & Gazda, V. (2010). The Relationship between Export and Economic Growth in Libya Arab Jamahiriya. Theoretical and Applied Economics, 1(1), 69-76.
Enders, W. (1995). Applied econometric time series. John Wiley & Sons.
Engle, R. F., & Granger, C. W. J. (1987). Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing. Econometrica, 55(2), 251–276. https://doi.org/10.2307/1913236
Engle, R. F., & Granger, C. W. J. (1987). Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing. Econometrica, 55(2), 251–276. https://doi.org/10.2307/1913236
Granger, C. W. (1969). Investigating causal relations by econometric models and cross-spectral methods. Econometrica, 37(3), 424. doi:10.2307/1912791
Gries, T., & Redlin, M. (2020). Trade and economic development: Global causality and development- and openness-related heterogeneity. International Economics and Economic Policy, 17(4), 923-944
Gonzalo, J. (1994). Five alternative methods of estimating long-run equilibrium relationships. Journal of Econometrics, 60(1-2), 203-233. doi:10.1016/0304- 4076(94)90044-2
Grossman, G. M., & Helpman, E. (2015). Globalization and growth. American Economic Review, 105(5), 100–104. https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.p20151068
Hashim, A., Rambeli, N., Jalil, N., Zulkifli, N., Hashim, E., & Karim, N. A. (2019). Does the Export-Led Growth Hypothesis Hold Under the World Crisis Recovery Regime in Malaysia? Research in World Economy, 10(5), 9-19. https://doi.org/10.5430/rwe.v10n5p9
Hassouneh, I., & Fannoun, Z. (2019). The Causal Relationship between Exports, Imports, and Economic Growth in Palestine. Journal of Reviews on Global Economics, 8, 258-268.
Herzer, D. (2013). Cross-country heterogeneity and the trade-income relationship. World Development, 44, 194–211.
Hussain, I., Hussain, J., Khan, A. A., & Khan, Y. (2019). An analysis of the asymmetric impact of exchange rate changes on G.D.P. in Pakistan: Application of non-linear ARDL. Economics Research-Ekonomska Istrazivanja, 32(1), 3100–3117.
Imam, A. (2013). Faktor-faktor yang memengaruhi impor barang konsumsi di Indonesia [Factors influencing consumer goods imports in Indonesia]. Universitas Negeri Padang.
Johansen, S. (1995). Likelihood-based inference in cointegrated vector autoregressive models. Oxford University Press.
Johansen, S., & Juselius, K. (1990). Maximum likelihood estimation and inference on cointegration—with applications to the demand for money. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 52(2), 169–210. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-0084.1990.mp52002003.x
Kalaitzi, A. S., & Cleeve, E. (2017). Export-led growth in the UAE: Multivariate causality between primary exports, manufactured exports, and economic growth. Eurasian Business Review, 8, 341-365. https://doi.org/10.1007/s40821-017-0089-1
Kim, D.H., & Lin, S.C. (2009). Trade and Growth at Different Stages of Economic Development. Journal of Development Studies, 45(8), 1211-1224.
Kumar, M., Nargis, N., & Begam, A. (2020). Export-led growth hypothesis: Empirical evidence from selected South Asian countries. Asian Journal of Economic Modelling, 8(1), 1-15. doi:10.18488/journal.8.2020.81.1.15
Leamer, E. E., & Levinsohn, J. (1995). International trade theory: The evidence. In G. M. Grossman & K. Rogoff (Eds.), Handbook of International Economics (1st ed., Vol. 3, pp. 1339-1394). Elsevier.
Mayorova, E. (2019). Corporate social responsibility disclosure: Evidence from the European retail sector. Entrepreneurship and Sustainability Issues, 7(2), 891-905.
MacKinnon, J. G. (1996). Numerical distribution functions for unit root and cointegration tests. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 11(6), 601–618. https://doi.org/10.1002/(SICI)1099-1255(199611)11:6%3C601::AID-JAE417%3E3.0.CO;2-T
Md Albiman, M., & Suleiman, N. N. (2016). The relationship among export, import, capital formation, and economic growth in Malaysia. Journal of Global Economics, 4(2), 1-9. doi:10.4172/2375-4389.1000186
Medina-Smith, E. J. (2001). Is the export-led growth hypothesis valid for developing countries? A case study of Costa Rica (Policy Issues in International Trade and Commodities Study Series No. 7). United Nations.
Michelis, L., & Zestos, G. K. (2004). Exports, imports, and GDP growth: Causal relationships in six European Union countries. Journal of Economic Integration, 19(4), 485–497. https://doi.org/10.11130/jei.2004.19.4.485
Ministry of International Trade and Industry. (2021). Malaysia's external trade statistics for December 2020. Ministry of International Trade and Industry Malaysia.
Monetary Authority of Singapore. (2020). Monetary policy operations and liquidity management in Singapore.
Moyo, V., & Mapfumo, A. (2015). Causal relationship between imports and economic growth in Zimbabwe: An empirical analysis 1975 – 2013. The Economics and Finance Letters, 2(4), 35–44.
Noor, S. I., & Rambeli, N. (2018). Impact of export, import, and growth: Evidence using econometric analysis in Malaysia. International Journal of Accounting, Finance and Business, 3(16), 12-19.
Pazim, K. H. (2009). Panel data analysis of the export-led growth hypothesis in BIMP-EAGA countries. MPRA Paper No. 13264. https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/13264
Pesaran, M. H., Shin, Y., & Smith, R. J. (2001). Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 16(3), 289–326. https://doi.org/10.1002/jae.616
Phillips, P. C. B., & Perron, P. (1988). Testing for a unit root in time series regression. Biometrika, 75(2), 335–346. https://doi.org/10.1093/biomet/75.2.335
Rangasamy, L. (2008). Exports and economic growth: The case of South Africa. Journal of International Development, 21(5), 603-617.
Rani, R., & Kumar, N. (2018). Is there an export- or import-led growth in BRICS countries? An empirical investigation. Jindal Journal of Business Research, 7(1), 13–23.
Sakyi, D. (2011). Trade openness, foreign aid, and economic growth in post-liberalisation Ghana: An application of the ARDL bounds test. Journal of Economics and International Finance, 3(3), 146-156. https://doi.org/10.5897/JEIF.9000116
Saputra, F. D. (2015). Analisis impor Indonesia dari Cina. E-Jurnal Perdagangan, Industri dan Moneter, 3(1), 1-6.
Shandre, M., Thangavelu, M., & Gulasekaran, R. (2006). Is there export or import-led productivity growth in rapidly developing Asian countries? A multivariate VAR analysis. Applied Economics, 36(9), 1083–1093.https://doi.org/10.1080/00036840500391234
Stracca, L., Mileva, E., & Habib, M. M. (2016). The real exchange rate and economic growth: Revisiting the case using external instruments (Working Paper Series No. 1921). European Central Bank.
Solow, R. M. (1957). Technical change and the aggregate production function. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 39(3), 312–320. https://doi.org/10.2307/1926047
Sukirno, S. (2006). Teori Pengantar Ekonomi Makro. PT. RajaGrafindo Persada.
Sulaiman, M., & Md. Saad, N. (2009). An analysis of export performance and economic growth of Malaysia using co-integration and error correction models. Journal of Developing Areas, 43(1), 217-231.
Sulaiman, M., & Md. Saad, N. (2009). An analysis of export performance and economic growth of Malaysia using Co-integrating and error correction models. The Journal of Developing Areas, 43(1), 217-231. doi:10.1353/jda.0.0031
Tan, A., Brewer, P., & Liesch, P. W. (2007). Before the first export decision: Internationalisation readiness in the pre-export phase. International Business Review, 16(3), 294-309.
Tan, S. H., M. S. Habibullah, Mohamed Azali, & Baharumshah, A. Z. (2007). Testing for Financial-Led, Export-Led and Import-Led Growth Hypotheses on Four Asian 131 Emerging Economies. International Journal of Economics and Management 1(3), 307–35.
Tang, C. F., & Lai, Y. W. (2011). The Stability of Export-led Growth Hypothesis: Evidence from Asia's Four Little Dragons (MPRA Paper No. 27962).
Thangavelu, S. M., & Rajaguru, G. (2006). Is there export or import-led productivity growth in rapidly developing Asian countries? A multivariate VAR analysis. Applied Economics, 36 (pp. 1083-1093).
Thangavelu, S., & Rajaguru, G. (2004). Is there export or import-led productivity growth in rapidly developing Asian countries? A multivariate VAR analysis. Applied Economics, 36, 1083-1093. doi:10.1080/0003684042000246795.
Tsen, W. H. (2007). Exports, domestic demand, and economic growth: Some empirical evidence of the Middle East countries. Journal of Economic Cooperation, 28(2), 57-82.
Tuffour, J. K. (2010). Export-led growth hypothesis: A causality analysis of Ghana. International Journal of Economics, 4, 233-247.
Turay, M. J. (2019). Relationship between Exports, Imports and Economic Growth in Sierra Leone. Journal of Innovation and Social Science Research, ISSN 2591, Retrieved from https://www.researchgate.net/profile/MatthewTuray
Ullah, Z., Zaman, F., Farooq, M., & Javid, A. (2009). Cointegration and causality between exports and economic growth in Pakistan. European Journal of Social Sciences, 10(2), 264-272.
World Bank. (2018, April 3). Stronger open trade policies enable economic growth for all. https://www.worldbank.org/en/results/2018/04/03
World Bank. (2022). World development indicators: External balance on goods and services. https://databank.worldbank.org/
Zahonogo, P. (2016). Trade and economic growth in developing countries: Evidence from sub-Saharan Africa. Journal of African Trade, 3(1/2), 41-56. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.joat.2017.02.001
Published
2026-06-28
How to Cite
Mt Nor, M. S. N., & Rambeli, N. (2026). The Export-Led and Import-Led Growth Hypothesis Test in Malaysia, Indonesia and Singapore. Information Management and Business Review, 18(2(I), 47-66. https://doi.org/10.22610/imbr.v18i2(I).4847
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Copyright (c) 2026 Mohd Shahrol Nizam Mt Nor, Norimah Rambeli
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