Determinants of Inflation Rate Fluctuations in Five ASEAN Nations

  • Norliza Che Yahya Universiti Teknologi MARA
  • Bushra Mohd Zaki Universiti Teknologi MARA
  • Siti Nur Aqilah Ab Wahab Universiti Malaysia Sabah
  • Muhammad Hazdaniel Bin Roslan Universiti Teknologi MARA
  • Fauziana Bt Fauzi Mat Rawi Universiti Teknologi MARA
Keywords: Inflation Fluctuations, ASEAN-5 Countries, Unemployment Rate, Economic Growth, Exchange Rate Determinants

Abstract

This paper examines the key relationships between independent variables and inflation fluctuations in the ASEAN-5 countries, which include Malaysia, Indonesia, Singapore, Thailand, and the Philippines. Using annual data from 2001 to 2020, a static panel data regression model is employed. The empirical results reveal that at least two independent variables significantly impact inflation rates in these five ASEAN nations. Specifically, the unemployment rate has a significant negative correlation with inflation fluctuations, while economic growth shows a significant positive correlation. Overall, this study provides valuable insights into how exchange rate determinants influence inflation fluctuations, highlighting the importance of balanced policies to address the interactions between unemployment, economic growth, and inflation.

Downloads

Download data is not yet available.

References

Abraham, C. J. C., & Camba, A. L. (2021). The mean-reverting behavior of inflation in the Philippines. Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business, 8(10), 239-247.

Adaramola, A. O., & Dada, O. (2020). Impact of inflation on economic growth: evidence from Nigeria. Investment Management & Financial Innovations, 17(2), 1. DOI: https://doi.org/10.21511/imfi.17(2).2020.01

Alieu, B. L. (n.d.). The impact of exchange rate on inflation: a case study of the Gambia (1978-2016). International University College of Turin (IUC), Italy, 15(10), 261.

Atif, B. (2021). The nature of the relationship between the money supply and inflation in the Jordanian economy (1980-2019). Business Perspectives, 16(2), 38-46. DOI: https://doi.org/10.21511/bbs.16(2).2021.04

Bloch, H., Dockery, A. M., & Sapsford, D. (2004). Commodity Prices, Wages, and Growth in the Periphery: What Can Africa Learn from the Asian Experience? Journal of African Economies, 13(4), 602-635. https://doi.org/10.1093/jae/ejh041 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1093/jae/ejh041

Charles, O. N., & Chilaka, E. N. (2019). The impact of exchange rates on inflation in Nigeria (1981-2015). Management Studies and Economic Systems (MSES), 4(3), 171-195. DOI: https://doi.org/10.12816/0054686

Dany-Knedlik, G., & Garcia, J. A. (2018). Monetary Policy and Inflation Dynamics in ASEAN Economies. IMF Working Papers, WP/18/147. International Monetary Fund. Available at: https://www.imf.org. DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781484363041.001

Dinh, D., (2019). Analyzed Money Supply and Inflation: Evidence from Vietnam Economy. Advances and Applications in Statistics, 56(2). DOI: https://doi.org/10.17654/AS056020125

Ditimi, A., Keji, S., & Emma-Ebere, O. (2018). The influence of money supply on inflation in Nigeria. Journal of Economics Management, 31(1), 6-23.

Edvin, S., & Kaleb, T. (2020). The relationship between inflation and unemployment in Sweden. Malardalens Universitet.

FoEh, J., Suryani, N. K., & Silpama, S. (2020). The influence of inflation level, exchange rate and Gross Domestic Product on foreign direct investment in the ASEAN countries from 2007-2018. European Journal of Business and Management Research, 5(3). DOI: https://doi.org/10.24018/ejbmr.2020.5.3.311

Friedman, M., & Schwartz, A. J., (1963). Money and Business Cycles. Money in Historical Perspective. https://doi.org/10.7208/9780226742298-007.

Ghanayem, A., Downing, G., & Sawalha, M. (2023). The impact of political instability on inflation volatility: The case of the Middle East and North Africa region. Cogent Economics & Finance, 11(1), 2213016. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/23322039.2023.2213016

Ghosh, J. (2023). The social consequences of inflation in developing countries. The Economic and Labour Relations Review, 34(2), 203-211. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1017/elr.2023.11

Gokal, V., & Hanif, S. (2004). Relationship Between Inflation and Economic Growth. Working Paper. Economic Department Reserve Bank of Fiji.

Hasnul, A. G. (2015). The effects of government expenditure on economic growth: the case of Malaysia. MPRA Paper No. 71254, posted 22 May 2016 14:44 UTC.

Ha, J., Stocker, M. M., & Yilmazkuday, H. (2020). Inflation and exchange rate pass-through. Journal of International Money and Finance, 105, 102187. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jimonfin.2020.102187

Hernández, J. R., Ventosa-Santaulària, D., & Valencia, J. E. (2024). Global supply chain inflationary pressures and monetary policy in Mexico. Emerging Markets Review, 58. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ememar.2023.101089. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ememar.2023.101089

James, E. M., Felican, M., & Robert, E. M. (2014). The effects of money supply on inflation in Tanzania. Science Publishing Group, 3(2), 19-26.

Kandil, M., & Morsy, H. (2011). Determinants of Inflation in GCC. Middle East Development Journal, 3(02), 141-158. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1142/S1793812011000351

Kayamo, S. E. (2021). Asymmetric impact of real exchange rate on inflation in Ethiopia: a non-linear ARDL approach. Cogent Economics & Finance, 9(1). DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/23322039.2021.1986931

Khattak, D., Muhammad, A., & Iqbal, K., (2014). Determining the Relationship between Income Inequality, Economic Growth & Inflation. Journal of Social Economics. 1(3), 104-114.

Louangrath, I., (2022). INFLATION: Challenges and Threats to Economic Growth in ASEAN. The Liberal Arts Journal Faculty of Liberal Arts, Mahidol University. Vol. 5 No. 2 July - December 2022. https://so02.tci-thaijo.org/index.php/lajournal.

Madesha, W., Chidoko, C. and Zivanomoyo, J. (2013) Empirical Test of the Relationship between Exchange Rate and Inflation in Zimbabwe. Journal of Economics and Sustainable Development, 4, 52-58.

Maximova, A. (2015). The relationship between inflation and unemployment: a theoretical discussion about the Philips Curve. Journal of International Business and Economics, 3(2), 89-97. DOI: https://doi.org/10.15640/jibe.v3n2a7

Md. Nezum, U., Mohammed, J. U., & Monir, A. (2019). Money and inflation nexus in Bangladesh. Asian Economics and Financial Review, 9(6), 702-711. DOI: https://doi.org/10.18488/journal.aefr.2019.96.702.711

Mehraraa, M., Behzadi, M. & Rezaei, S. (2016). The Impact of Government Spending on Inflation through the Inflationary Environment, STR approach. World Scientific News, 37, 153-167.

Omran, E. A. M., & Bilan, Y. (2021). The impact of inflation on the unemployment rate in Egypt: a VAR approach. SHS Web of Conferences 107, 06009. https://doi.org/10.1051/shsconf/202110706009. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1051/shsconf/202110706009

Ovamba, K. E., & Ouma, D., (2018). Effect Of Trade Taxes on Trade Deficit in Kenya. International Journal of Economics, Business and Management Research, 2(5).

Panigrahi, K. S., Azizan, A. N., Sorooshian, S. and Thoudam, P. (2020). Effects of Inflation, Interest, and Unemployment Rates on Economic Growth: Evidence from ASEAN Countries. ABAC Journal Assumption University, 40(2).

Sanam, S. M., & Fetullah, A. (2017). The relationship between exchange rate and inflation: the case of Iran. European Journal of Sustainable Development, 6(4), 329-340. DOI: https://doi.org/10.14207/ejsd.2017.v6n4p329

Senawi, N. F., & Che Sulaiman, N. F. (2020). The Relationship Between Government Expenditure on Selected Sectors Towards Economic Growth In Malaysia. UMT Journal of Undergraduate Research. 2(3). DOI: https://doi.org/10.46754/umtjur.v2i3.169

Setiartiti, L., & Hapsari, Y. (2019). The determinants of inflation rate in Indonesia. Jurnal Ekonomi & Studi Pembangunan, 20(1), 112-123. DOI: https://doi.org/10.18196/jesp.20.1.5016

Shifaniya, A. J. F., Hettiarachchi K. H. I. S., Weeraddana, M. N. and Parmila N. S. (2022). The Impact of Government Expenditure on Inflation: Evidence from Sri Lanka and India. Sri Lankan Journal of Banking and Finance. 5. DOI: https://doi.org/10.4038/sljbf.v5i1.28

Tenzin, U., (2019). The Nexus Among Economic Growth, Inflation and Unemployment in Bhutan. South Asia Economic Journal. Volume 20, Issue 1. https://doi.org/10.1177/1391561418822204. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1177/1391561418822204

Totonchi, J. (2011). Macroeconomic Theories of Inflation. In 2011 International Conference on Economics and Finance Research (pp. 459-462). IACSIT Press.

Wulandari, D., Utomo, H. S., Narmaditya, S. B. and Kamaludin, M. (2019). Nexus between Inflation and Unemployment: Evidence from Indonesia. Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business, 6(2), 269-275. DOI: https://doi.org/10.13106/jafeb.2019.vol6.no2.269

Yusof, N., Liya, F. N., Haida, K. M. K., Jamilyn, R. A. T., & Amir, I. Z. (2021). Factors that influence the inflation rate in Malaysia. International Journal of Academic Research in Business and Social Sciences, 11(9), 626-637. DOI: https://doi.org/10.6007/IJARBSS/v11-i9/10838

Zakaria, M., Khiam, S., & Mahmood, H. (2021). Influence of oil prices on inflation in South Asia: Some new evidence. Resources Policy, 71, 102014. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resourpol.2021.102014

Published
2024-10-27
How to Cite
Che Yahya, N., Zaki, B. M., Ab Wahab, S. N. A., Bin Roslan, M. H., & Mat Rawi, F. B. F. (2024). Determinants of Inflation Rate Fluctuations in Five ASEAN Nations. Information Management and Business Review, 16(3S(I)a), 817-830. https://doi.org/10.22610/imbr.v16i3S(I)a.4238
Section
Research Paper