An Exploratory Study on the Effect of Macroeconomic Indicators on the Stock Market Performance among 6-ASEAN Countries
Abstract
The stock market's performance has been impacted by the global economy's recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic. This study investigates the impact of various factors on stock market performance, with a focus on the global economic recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic. The stock market has experienced positive growth, driven by low interest rates, ample liquidity, and sustained investor optimism, despite concerns over rising inflation and interest rates. This research aims to analyze stock market performance across six ASEAN countries, using a range of data sources, including historical stock prices, financial reports, and macroeconomic indicators. The findings reveal that the real exchange rate exerts the most significant influence on stock market performance. The insights from this study provide valuable information for investors, policymakers, and government bodies, aiding in strategic decision-making and investment planning in these markets.
Downloads
References
Adjasi, C. K., & Biekpe, N. (2006). Stock market development and economic growth: The case of selected African countries. Journal of International Business and Law, 144-161. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-8268.2006.00136.x
Aggarwal, R. (1981). Exchange rates and stock prices: A study of the U.S. capital markets under floating exchange rates. Journal of Financial Research, 7-12.
Agrawal, G., Srivastav, A. K., & Srivastava, A. (2010). A study of exchange rates movement and stock market volatility. International Journal of Business and Management, 5(12), 62-73. DOI: https://doi.org/10.5539/ijbm.v5n12p62
Bank of England. (2022, November 3). What are interest rates? Bank of England. https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/knowledgebank/what-are-interest-rates
Banton, C. A. (2021). Examining faculty’s transition to 100% online learning during a pandemic. Journal of Higher Education Athletics & Innovation, 1(7), 1-16. DOI: https://doi.org/10.46743/2160-3715/2023.5731
Bhargava, V., & Konku, D. (2023). Impact of exchange rate fluctuations on US stock market returns. Managerial Finance, 49(10), 1535-1557. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1108/MF-08-2022-0387
Biedny, C. (2012). Financial development and economic growth: Does stock market openness matter? Journal of International Business and Law, 225.
Boyd, J. H., Levine, R., & Smith, B. D. (2001). The impact of inflation on financial market performance. The Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 33(3), 659-678.
Campbell, J. Y., & Shiller, R. J. (1991). Yield spreads and interest rate movements: A bird's eye view. The Review of Economic Studies, 495-514. DOI: https://doi.org/10.2307/2298008
Chikwira, C., & Mohammed, J. I. (2023). The impact of the stock market on liquidity and economic growth: Evidence of volatile market. Economies, 11(155). DOI: https://doi.org/10.3390/economies11060155
Chen, Y., & Wu, C. (2022). Environmental, social, and governance (ESG) and artificial intelligence in finance: State-of-the-art and research takeaways. Artificial Intelligence Review.
Deng, W., Lin, N. R., Guo, X., & Pan, P. (2023). Influence of the real exchange rate on economic growth. In C. T. Dang, J. Cifuentes-Faura, & X. Li (Eds.), Proceedings of the 2nd International Conference on Business and Policy Studies (pp. 154-161). Springer, Singapore. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-99-6441-3_154
Drukker, D. M. (2003). Testing for serial correlation in linear panel-data models. Stata Journal, 3(2), 168-177. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1177/1536867X0300300206
Eldomiaty, T., Saeed, Y., Hammam, R., & AboulSoud, S. (2020). The associations between stock prices, inflation rates, interest rates are still persistent: Empirical evidence from stock duration model. Journal of Economics, Finance and Administrative Science, 25(49), 149-161.Fama, E. F. (1981). Stock returns, real activity, inflation, and money. The American Economic Review, 545-565. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1108/JEFAS-10-2018-0105
Fisher, I. (1911). Effect of money supply on the stock market. The Journal of Finance, 1-8.
Ghazali, N. A., & Yakob, N. A. (1998). The money supply and stock prices: The case of Malaysia. Capital Markets Review, 6(1&2), 69-83.
J.P. Morgan. (2023, December 22). 2024 economic outlook: 10 considerations for the US economy. J.P. Morgan.
Khodaparasti, S. (2014). The role of macroeconomic variables in the stock market in Iran. Polish Journal of Management Studies, 10(2), 56-66.
Lee, H. L., Padmanabhan, V., & Whang, S. (1997). Information distortion in a supply chain: The bullwhip effect. Management Science, 43(4), 546-558. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.43.4.546
Mehar, M. A. (2022). Role of monetary policy in economic growth and development: From theory to empirical evidence. Asian Journal of Economics and Banking, 99-120.
Talla, J. T. (2013). Impact of macroeconomic variables on the stock market prices of the Stockholm Stock Exchange (OMXS30) [Master’s Thesis, Jönköping International Business School]. Jönköping University.
T, L. (2021). The relationship between exchange rate and stock market volatilities in India: ARCH-GARCH estimation of the causal effects. International Journal of Finance Research, 1-15.
Thorbecke, W. (2023). The impact of monetary policy on the US stock market since the COVID-19 pandemic. International Journal of Financial Studies, 11(4), 134. DOI: https://doi.org/10.3390/ijfs11040134
Dibor-Alfred, C., Somoye, O. A., & Ozdeser, H. (2023). Stock market performance and economic growth: Empirical evidence from Nigeria employing the ARDL approach. SN Business & Economics, 3(218). DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s43546-023-00603-4
Harris, R. (1997). Stock markets and development: A re-assessment. European Economic Review, 139-146. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/S0014-2921(96)00021-9
Jamaludin, N., Ismail, S., & Manaf, S. A. (2017). Macroeconomic variables and stock market returns Panel analysis from selected ASEAN countries. International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, 7(1), 37-45.
Limpanithiwat, P., & Rungsombudpornkul, C. (2010). Effects of macroeconomic variables on stock market volatility. International Journal of Econometrics and Financial Management, 42- 59.
Maxwell, L. K., & David, C. H. (1995). The application of the Durbin-Watson test to the dynamic regression model under normal and non-normal errors. Econometric Reviews, 14(4), 487–510. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/07474939508800333
Mehar, M. A. (2022). Role of monetary policy in economic growth and development: From theory to empirical evidence. Asian Journal of Economics and Banking, 99-120. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1108/AJEB-12-2021-0148
Naik, P. K., & Padhi, P. (2012). The impact of macroeconomic fundamentals on stock prices revisited: An evidence from Indian data. Munich Personal RePEc Archive. https://mpra.ub.uni- muenchen.de/id/eprint/38980 DOI: https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2150208
Potters, J. (2022). Variance Inflation Factor (VIF). Corporate Finance Institute. https://corporatefinanceinstitute.com/resources/knowledge/statistics/variance-inflation-factor- vif/
Pradhan, R. P. (2018). Development of stock market and economic growth: The G-20 evidence. Eurasian Economic Review, 8, 161-181. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s40822-018-0094-4
Ramasamy, B., & Yeung, M. C. (2002). The relationship between exchange rates and stock prices: Implications for capital controls. Asia Pacific Journal of Economics & Business, 46-58.
Shapiro, A. C. (1975). Exchange rate changes, inflation, and the value of the multinational corporation. The Journal of Finance, 485-495. DOI: https://doi.org/10.2307/2978728
Singh, A. (1998). Emerging stock markets, portfolio capital flows, and long-term economic growth: Micro and macroeconomic perspectives. Finance and Development, 43, 46-58.
Singh, A. (2012). Financial liberalization, stock markets, and economic development. Journal of Development Economics, 3, 56-70.
Singh, A., & Weisse, B. (1998). Emerging stock markets, portfolio capital flows, and long-term economic growth: Micro and macroeconomic perspectives. Journal of Development Economics, 10(2), 56-66.
Sprinkel, B. W. (1965). Money and stock prices. The Journal of Finance, 146-148. DOI: https://doi.org/10.2307/2977764
T, L. (2021). The relationship between exchange rate and stock market volatilities in India: ARCH-GARCH estimation of the causal effects. International Journal of Finance Research, 1- 15.
Ullah, M., Sohag, K., Khan. S. & Sohail, H. M. (2023). Impact of Russia–Ukraine conflict on Russian financial market: Evidence from TVP-VAR and quantile-VAR analysis. Russian Journal of Economics 9(3), 284-305. DOI: https://doi.org/10.32609/j.ruje.9.105833
Verma, R. K., & Bansal, R. (2021). Impact of macroeconomic variables on the performance of stock exchange: A systematic review. International Journal of Emerging Markets, 16(7), 1291- 1329. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1108/IJOEM-11-2019-0993
Wongbangpo, P., & Sharma, S. C. (2002). Stock market and macroeconomic fundamental dynamic interactions: ASEAN-5 countries. Journal of Asian Economics, 13, 27-51. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/S1049-0078(01)00111-7
Copyright (c) 2024 Zahirah Hamid Ghul, Zetty Zahureen Yusoff , Norhasimah Shaharuddin, Nurul Haziqah Shamsudin, Nik Rozila Nik Mohd Masdek
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
Author (s) should affirm that the material has not been published previously. It has not been submitted and it is not under consideration by any other journal. At the same time author (s) need to execute a publication permission agreement to assume the responsibility of the submitted content and any omissions and errors therein. After submission of revised paper in the light of suggestions of the reviewers, the editorial team edits and formats manuscripts to bring uniformity and standardization in published material.
This work will be licensed under Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0) and under condition of the license, users are free to read, copy, remix, transform, redistribute, download, print, search or link to the full texts of articles and even build upon their work as long as they credit the author for the original work. Moreover, as per journal policy author (s) hold and retain copyrights without any restrictions.