A Study of Intercept Adjusted Markov Switching Vector Autoregressive Model in Economic Time Series Data

Abstract

Commodity price always related to the movement of stock market index. However real economic time series data always exhibit nonlinear properties such as structural change, jumps or break in the series through time. Therefore, linear time series models are no longer suitable and Markov Switching Vector Autoregressive models which able to study the asymmetry and regime switching behavior of the data are used in the study. Intercept adjusted Markov Switching Vector Autoregressive (MSI-VAR) model is discuss and applied in the study to capture the smooth transition of the stock index changes from recession state to growth state. Results found that the dramatically changes from one state to another state are continuous smooth transition in both regimes. In addition, the 1-step prediction probability for the two regime Markov Switching model which act as the filtered probability to the actual probability of the variables is converged to the actual probability when undergo an intercept adjusted after a shift. This prove that MSI-VAR model is suitable to use in examine the changes of the economic model and able to provide significance, valid and reliable results. While oil price and gold price also proved that as a factor in affecting the stock exchange.