Macro-Financial Determinants of Electricity Power Loss in Uganda

  • Alex Twinomuhwezi Mbarara University of Science and Technology
  • Dr Benjamin Musiita Mbarara University of Science and Technology
  • Frederick Nsambu Kijjambu Mbarara University of Science and Technology
Keywords: Electricity power loss, GDP per capita, inflation, lending rates, real effective exchange rate, energy investment

Abstract

This study examined the macro-financial determinants of electricity power loss in Uganda, with objectives that looked at GDP per capita, inflation, lending rates, the real effective exchange rate, and energy investment in electricity power loss. This study adopted a time series quantitative methodology. The secondary data was collected from reliable sources such as the World Bank, the Bank of Uganda, and the Electricity Regulatory Authority, spanning 20 years. The research applied a VAR model to analyze the short-run dynamics of the variables under consideration. The data were first cleaned to handle heteroscedasticity issues and missing values. The study found some of Uganda's most significant determinants of electricity losses to be macro-financial factors such as inflation, GDP per capita differences, and energy investment. Inflation volatility increased power losses, as did differences in GDP per capita, while low investment in energy translated to inefficiency within the electricity sector. Lending rates inhibited the infrastructural development of energy and, hence, power distribution and transmission efficiency. Therefore, the study concludes that addressing these macro-financial factors- inflation control, efficient energy investment, and economic policies- minimizes losses of electricity power in Uganda. This study suggests focusing on inflation stabilization, attracting investment in the energy sector, controlling the lending rate, and upgrading energy infrastructure management for better efficiency in the overall Ugandan electricity system. In addition, addressing issues of exchange rates and modern energy distribution technologies is central to minimizing losses and promoting an efficient energy sector.

Downloads

Download data is not yet available.

References

Abbasi, K. R., Hussain, K., Abbas, J., Adedoyin, F. F., Shaikh, P. A., Yousaf, H., & Muhammad, F. (2021). Analyzing the role of industrial sector's electricity consumption, prices, and GDP: a modified empirical evidence from Pakistan. Aims Energy, 9(1), 29-49.
Abdallah, C., & Kpodar, K. (2023). How large and persistent is the response of inflation to changes in retail energy prices?. Journal of International Money and Finance, 132, 102806.
Abdin, Z., & Mérida, W. (2019). Hybrid energy systems for off-grid power supply and hydrogen production based on renewable energy: A techno-economic analysis. Energy Conversion and Management, 196, 1068-1079.
Abu-Rayash, A., & Dincer, I. (2020). Analysis of the electricity demand trends amidst the COVID-19 coronavirus pandemic. Energy Research & Social Science, 68, 101682.
Adams, S., Atsu, F., Klobodu, E. M., & Richmond, L. (2020). Electricity transmission, distribution losses and economic growth in South Africa. Heliyon, 6(11).
Adi, T. W., Prabowo, E., & Prasadjaningsih, O. (2022). Influence of electricity consumption of industrial and business, electricity price, inflation and interest rate on GDP and investments in Indonesia. International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, 12(3), 331-340.
African Climate Foundation. (2022). Energy data challenges in Africa's electricity landscape. African Climate Foundation.
Atangana, A., & Goufo, E. F. D. (2022). Modern and generalized analysis of exogenous growth models. Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, 163, 112605.
Beckmann, J., Czudaj, R. L., & Arora, V. (2020). The relationship between oil prices and exchange rates: Revisiting theory and evidence. Energy Economics, 88, 104772.
Bedná?, O., ?e?rdlová, A., Kade?ábková, B., & ?ežábek, P. (2022). Energy prices impact on the inflationary spiral. Energies, 15(9), 3443.
Bigerna, S., Wen, X., Hagspiel, V., & Kort, P. M. (2019). Green electricity investments: Environmental target and the optimal subsidy. European Journal of Operational Research, 279(2), 635-644.
Chen, H., Jin, L., Wang, M., Guo, L., & Wu, J. (2023). How will power outages affect the national economic growth: Evidence from 152 countries. Energy Economics, 126, 107055.
Comin, D. A., Johnson, R. C., & Jones, C. J. (2023). Supply chain constraints and inflation (No.. w31179). National Bureau of Economic Research.
Coskun, S., & Korn, R. (2021). Modeling the intraday electricity demand in Germany. Mathematical modeling, simulation and optimization for power engineering and management, 3-23.
Das, A., & McFarlane, A. (2022). Remittances, electricity consumption and electric power losses in Jamaica. Journal of Economic Studies, 49(3), 558-575.
Deryugina, T., MacKay, A., & Reif, J. (2020). The long-run dynamics of electricity demand: Evidence from municipal aggregation. American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, 12(1), 86-114.
Dokas, I., Panagiotidis, M., Papadamou, S. and Spyromitros, E., 2022. The determinants of energy and electricity consumption in developed and developing countries: International evidence. Energies, 15(7), p.2558.
Dokas, I., Panagiotidis, M., Papadamou, S., & Spyromitros, E. (2022). The determinants of energy and electricity consumption in developed and developing countries: International evidence. Energies, 15(7), 2558.
Dornbusch, R. (2019). The theory of flexible exchange rate regimes and macroeconomic policy. In Flexible Exchange Rates/h (pp. 123-143). Routledge.
Durani, F., Anwar, A., Sharif, A., Hamid, A., Ali, S. and Syed, Q.R., 2024. Exploring the link between inflation, tourism, trade, foreign direct investment, and renewable energy consumption: evidence from a novel wavelet quantile correlation approach. Clean Technologies and Environmental Policy, pp.1-15.
Edwards, S. (2019). Real Exchange Rates in Developing Countries: Concepts and Measurement 1. In International financial markets and agricultural trade (pp. 56-108). CRC Press.
Eickmeier, S., & Hofmann, B. (2022). What drives inflation? Disentangling demand and supply factors.
Godinho, C., & Eberhard, A. A. (2019). Learning from power sector reform: The case of Uganda. World Bank Policy Research Working Paper, (8820).
Grant, L., Latchman, H., & Alli, K. (2023). Detection of electricity theft in developing countries machine learning approach. Trends in Computer Science and Information Technology, 8(2), 038-049.
Gutium, T. (2019, October). The Correlation between Energy Resources Tariffs, Inflation and Competitiveness. In 2019 International Conference on Electromechanical and Energy Systems (SIELMEN) (pp. 1-6). IEEE.
Hassan, M. A., Bailek, N., Bouchouicha, K., & Nwokolo, S. C. (2021). Ultra-short-term exogenous forecasting of photovoltaic power production using genetically optimized non-linear auto-regressive recurrent neural networks. Renewable Energy, 171, 191-209.
Iddi, E. S., Umaru, K., Eze, V. H. U., Asikuru, S., Musa, N., & Ochima, N. (2024). Voltage Optimization on Low-Voltage Distribution Transformer Zones Using Batteries in Uganda. Journal of Engineering, Technology, and Applied Science (JETAS), 6(1), 40-48.
International Energy Agency. (2022). World electricity capacity and demand. International Energy Agency.
International Energy Agency. (2023). Electricity market report – January 2023. International Energy Agency.
International Energy Agency. (2024). Electricity 2024: Executive summary. International Energy Agency.
Islam, M. M., & Islam, M. S. (2021). Energy consumption–economic growth nexus within the purview of exogenous and endogenous dynamics: evidence from Bangladesh. OPEC Energy Review, 45(2), 191-216.
Itskhoki, O., & Mukhin, D. (2021). Exchange rate disconnect in general equilibrium. Journal of Political Economy, 129(8), 2183-2232.
Kabeyi, M. J. B., & Olanrewaju, O. A. (2021, December). Relationship between electricity consumption and economic development. In 2021 International Conference on Electrical, Computer and Energy Technologies (ICECET) (pp. 1-8). IEEE.
Kumar, S. (2019). Asymmetric impact of oil prices on exchange rate and stock prices. The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, 72, 41-51.
Laksono, R., 2024. Analysis of the influence of macroeconomic factors on long-term and short-term fluctuations of the Indonesian stock exchange (BEI) using the error correction method (ECM) approach. Technium Soc. Sci. J., 63, p.162.
Lehtola, T., & Zahedi, A. (2019). Solar energy and wind power supply supported by storage technology: A review. Sustainable Energy Technologies and Assessments, 35, 25-31.
Magweva, R., & Sibanda, M. (2020). Inflation and infrastructure sector returns in emerging markets—panel ARDL approach. Cogent Economics & Finance, 8(1), 1730078.
Maulidia, M., Dargusch, P., Ashworth, P., & Ardiansyah, F. (2019). Rethinking renewable energy targets and electricity sector reform in Indonesia: A private sector perspective. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 101, 231-247.
Memarzadeh, G., Keynia, F., Amirteimoury, F., Memarzadeh, R., & Noori, H. (2025). A new hybrid intelligent method for accurate short-term electric power production forecasting from uncertain renewable energy resources. International Journal of Industrial Electronics Control and Optimization, 8(1), 45-55.
Migisha, A. G., Ntayi, J. M., Adaramola, M. S., Buyinza, F., Senyonga, L., & Abaliwano, J. (2024). Effects of technical and security factors on grid electricity reliability: evidence from Uganda national electricity grid network. Technological Sustainability, 3(1), 41-67.
Murshed, M. and Ozturk, I., 2023. Rethinking energy poverty reduction through improving electricity accessibility: A regional analysis on selected African nations. Energy, 267, p.126547.
Musbah, H., Aly, H.H. and Little, T.A., 2023. A proposed novel adaptive DC technique for non-stationary data removal. Heliyon, 9(3).
Obafemi, M. O. (2021). Determinants, Prevalence And Effects Of Electricity Theft Among Households In Lagos State (Doctoral Dissertation).
Ohaegbulem, E.U. and Iheaka, V.C., 2024. On remedying the presence of heteroscedasticity in a multiple linear regression model.
Olivares, K. G., Challu, C., Marcjasz, G., Weron, R., & Dubrawski, A. (2023). Neural basis expansion analysis with exogenous variables: Forecasting electricity prices with NBEATSx. International Journal of Forecasting, 39(2), 884-900.
Özdemir, Ö., Hobbs, B. F., van Hout, M., & Koutstaal, P. R. (2020). Capacity vs energy subsidies for promoting renewable investment: Benefits and costs for the EU power market. Energy Policy, 137, 111166.
Patel, N., Wang, Z., & Wei, S. J. (2019). Global value chains and effective exchange rates at the country?sector level. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 51, 7-42.
Paudel, A., Sampath, L. P. M. I., Yang, J., & Gooi, H. B. (2020). Peer-to-peer energy trading in the smart grid considering power losses and network fees. IEEE Transactions on Smart Grid, 11(6), 4727-4737.
Pérez, H. D. J. G., & Ortega, M. V. (2021). Mathematical economics in the explanation of economic growth in economies with endogenous and exogenous technological change. Revista Boletín Redipe, 10(5), 101-109.
Probst, B., Westermann, L., Anadón, L. D., & Kontoleon, A. (2021). Leveraging private investment to expand renewable power generation: evidence on financial additionality and productivity gains from Uganda. World Development, 140, 105347.
Razavi, R., & Fleury, M. (2019). Socio-economic predictors of electricity theft in developing countries: An Indian case study. Energy for Sustainable Development, 49, 1-10.
Ridzuan, A. R., Kamaluddin, M., Ismail, N. A., Razak, M. I. M., & Haron, N. F. (2020). Macroeconomic indicators for the electrical consumption demand model in Malaysia. International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, 10(1), 16-22.
Roeger, W., & Welfens, P. J. (2022). Gas price caps and electricity production effects in the context of the Russo-Ukrainian War: modeling and new policy reforms. International Economics and Economic Policy, 19(4), 645-673.
Sadovskaia, K., Bogdanov, D., Honkapuro, S., & Breyer, C. (2019). Power transmission and distribution losses–A model based on available empirical data and future trends for all countries globally. International Journal of Electrical Power & Energy Systems, 107, 98-109.
Sam, C. Y., McNown, R., & Goh, S. K. (2019). An augmented autoregressive distributed lag bounds test for cointegration. Economic Modelling, 80, 130–141. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2018.11.001
Saqib, A., Chan, T. H., Mikhaylov, A., & Lean, H. H. (2021). Are the responses of sectoral energy imports asymmetric to exchange rate volatilities in Pakistan? Evidence from the recent foreign exchange regime. Frontiers in Energy Research, 9, 614463.
Shapiro, A. H. (2022). How much do supply and demand drive inflation?. FRBSF Economic Letter, 15, 1-6.
Shen, W., Chen, X., Qiu, J., Hayward, J. A., Sayeef, S., Osman, P., ... & Dong, Z. Y. (2020). A comprehensive review of variable renewable energy levelized cost of electricity. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 133, 110301.
Si, D. K., Li, X. L., & Huang, S. (2021). Financial deregulation and operational risks of energy enterprise: The shock of liberalization of bank lending rate in China. Energy Economics, 93, 105047.
Simionescu, M., Bilan, Y., Kraj?áková, E., Streimikiene, D., & G?dek, S. (2019). Renewable energy in the electricity sector and GDP per capita in the European Union. Energies, 12(13), 2520.
Sridharan, V., Broad, O., Shivakumar, A., Howells, M., Boehlert, B., Groves, D. G., ... & Cervigni, R. (2019). Resilience of the Eastern African electricity sector to climate-driven changes in hydropower generation. Nature communications, 10(1), 302.
Sridharan, V., Shivakumar, A., Niet, T., Ramos, E. P., & Howells, M. (2020). Land, energy and water resource management and its impact on GHG emissions, electricity supply and food production- Insights from a Ugandan case study. Environmental Research Communications, 2(8), 085003.
Steinberg, D. C., Brown, M., Wiser, R., Donohoo-Vallett, P., Gagnon, P., Hamilton, A., ... & Prasanna, A. (2023). Evaluating impacts of the Inflation Reduction Act and the bipartisan infrastructure law on the US power system (No NREL/TP-6A20-85242). National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States).
Stern, D. I., Burke, P. J., & Bruns, S. B. (2019). The impact of electricity on economic development: A macroeconomic perspective.
Szustak, G., D?browski, P., Grado?, W., & Szewczyk, ?. (2021). The relationship between energy production and GDP: Evidence from selected European economies. Energies, 15(1), 50.
Trotter, P. A., Cooper, N. J., & Wilson, P. R. (2019). A multi-criteria, long-term energy planning optimization model with integrated on-grid and off-grid electrification–The case of Uganda. Applied Energy, 243, 288-312.
Tudor, C., & Sova, R. (2021). On the impact of GDP per capita, carbon intensity and innovation for renewable energy consumption: worldwide evidence. Energies, 14(19), 6254.
Uganda Electricity Regulatory Authority. (2024). Minister’s speech on the occasion to announce the 2024 electricity end-user tariffs.
Wabukala, B. M., Bergland, O., Rudaheranwa, N., Watundu, S., Adaramola, M. S., Ngoma, M., & Rwaheru, A. A. (2022). Unbundling barriers to electricity security in Uganda: A review. Energy strategy reviews, 44, 100984.
Wabukala, B. M., Mukisa, N., Watundu, S., Bergland, O., Rudaheranwa, N., & Adaramola, M. S. (2023). Impact of household electricity theft and unaffordability on electricity security: A case of Uganda. Energy Policy, 173, 113411.
Wang, J., Hassan, M. S., Alharthi, M., Arshed, N., Hanif, I., & Saeed, M. I. (2022). Inspecting non-linear behavior of aggregated and disaggregated renewable and non-renewable energy consumption on GDP per capita in Pakistan. Energy Strategy Reviews, 39, 100772.
World Bank. (2020). Forecasting electricity demand: An aid for practitioners. World Bank.
Published
2025-04-26
How to Cite
Twinomuhwezi, A., Musiita, B., & Kijjambu, F. N. (2025). Macro-Financial Determinants of Electricity Power Loss in Uganda. Journal of Economics and Behavioral Studies, 17(1(J), 96-107. https://doi.org/10.22610/jebs.v17i1(J).4458
Section
Research Paper