Human Capital Development and Unemployment in Uganda: The Keynesian Theory of Unemployment in Perspective
Keywords:
Human Capital Development, Unemployment, Keynesian Theory
Abstract
This study delves into the dynamic relationship between human capital development and unemployment in Uganda, employing a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) to analyze time series data on education and health expenditures as a percentage of GDP, Gross Fixed Capital Formation, and Government Consumption Expenditure. The study applied aggregated secondary data on an annual basis trenching from 1986 to 2022 and from the World Bank Development Indicators (WBDI). For data analysis purposes, the STATA software was utilized. The findings reveal a significant negative effect of education expenditure on unemployment rates in the short term, highlighting the critical role of educational investment in mitigating unemployment. Health expenditure is similarly beneficial in the long term, though its short-term effects are less pronounced. The results advocate for prioritizing educational spending in economic policies to foster sustainable employment growth. These insights are crucial for policymakers aiming to leverage human capital development as a means to counter unemployment and promote economic stability.
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References
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Alfonsi, L., Bandiera, O., Bassi, V., Burgess, R., Rasul, I., Sulaiman, M., & Vitali, A. (2020). Tackling youth unemployment: Evidence from a labor market experiment in Uganda. Econometrica, 88(6), 2369-2414.
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Anguyo, F. L., Gupta, R., & Kotzé, K. (2020). Inflation dynamics in Uganda: a quantile regression approach. Macroeconomics and Finance in Emerging Market Economies, 13(2), 161-187.
Anowor, O. F., Ichoku, H. E., & Onodugo, V. A. (2020). Nexus between healthcare financing and output per capita: Analysis of countries in ECOWAS sub-region. Cogent Economics & Finance, 8(1), 1832729.
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Arthur, E. (2015). Health expenditure, health outcomes and economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa (Doctoral dissertation, UNIVERSITY OF BENIN).
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Azolibe, C. B., Nwadibe, C. E., & Okeke, C. M. G. (2020). Socio-economic determinants of public expenditure in Africa: assessing the influence of population age structure. International Journal of Social Economics, 47(11), 1403-1418.
Bandiera, O., Bassi, V., Burgess, R., Rasul, I., Sulaiman, M., & Vitali, A. (2023). The search for good jobs: evidence from a six-year field experiment in Uganda (No. w31570). National Bureau of Economic Research.
Cappelli, R., Montobbio, F., & Morrison, A. (2021). Unemployment resistance across EU regions: the role of technological and human capital. Journal of Evolutionary Economics, 31, 147-178.
Chindengwike, J., & Tyagi, R. (2022). The Vector Auto Regressive Analysis identifies government expenditure policy impact on sustainable economic development. Journal of Global Economy, 18(2), 110-122.
Egessa, A., Nnyanzi, J. B., & Muwanga, J. (2021). Determinants of youth unemployment in Uganda: The role of gender, education, residence, and age. IZA Journal of Labor Policy, 11(1).
Elliot, B. (2015). The relationship between inflation and unemployment in Ghana: Analysis of the Philips Curve. African Journal of Economic Review, 3(2), 117-124.
Epeju, W. F. (2020). Getting Out of Poverty in Uganda through Education in Agriculture. European Journal of Agriculture and Food Sciences, 2(2).
Faruk, B. U., Haque, M. I., Tausif, M. R., & Khan, M. R. (2022). The association between health expenditure, institutions, and economic growth in MENA countries. Health Promotion Perspectives, 12(1), 92.
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Jeza, M. P., Greyling, L., & Ilesanmi, K. D. (2021). Inflation and Unemployment in the South African Democratic Era: Is There Any Trade-off (Doctoral dissertation, University of Zululand).
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Kan, S., & Klasen, S. (2021). Evaluating universal primary education in Uganda: School fee abolition and educational outcomes. Review of Development Economics, 25(1), 116-147.
Khan, I., Xue, J., Zaman, S., & Mehmood, Z. (2023). Nexus between FDI, economic growth, industrialization, and employment opportunities: Empirical evidence from Pakistan. Journal of the Knowledge Economy, 14(3), 3153-3175.
Kilanko, O. (2019). The effects of health care expenditures on health outcomes in West Africa: analysis of selected 14 countries from 2000 to 2018.
Kim, J. (2021). An analysis of Uganda's vocational education: Assessing human capital and human development approaches. Issues in Educational Research, 31(2), 556-573.
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Korkmaz, S., & Abdullazade, M. (2020). The causal relationship between unemployment and inflation in g6 countries. Advances in Economics and Business, 8(5), 303-309.
Lawanson, O. I., & Umar, D. I. (2020). Education Expenditure-Led Growth: Evidence from Nigeria (1980-2018). International Business Research, 13(3), 133-152.
Mathenge, S., & Muturi, W. (2021). Determinants of Unemployment in East African Community Countries. Account and Financial Management Journal, 6(10).
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Meyer, D. F., & Sanusi, K. A. (2019). A causality analysis of the relationships between gross fixed capital formation, economic growth and employment in South Africa. Studia Universitatis Babes-Bolyai Oeconomica, 64(1), 33-44.
Muchira, J. (2018). Stimulating agribusiness entrepreneurship to solve youth unemployment in Kenya. IDS Policy Briefing, (158).
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Munyambonera, E., Ndatira, C. M., & Mfite, N. E. (2023). Analysis of the viability of core inflation components based on excluded items in Uganda. Kabale University Interdisciplinary Research Journal, 2(2), 51-76.
MUSE, A. F. I. (2022). POPULATION GROWTH AND UNEMPLOYMENT RATE IN UGANDA (1991-2019).
Muvawala, J., Sebukeera, H., & Ssebulime, K. (2021). Socio-economic impacts of transport infrastructure investment in Uganda: Insight from frontloading expenditure on Uganda's urban roads and highways. Research in Transportation Economics, 88, 100971.
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Mwanika, K., Atekyereza, P., & Osterberg, T. (2021). Commercial Sugarcane Farming in Eastern Uganda: The answer to vulnerable youth? Eastern Africa Social Science Research Review, 37(1), 1-25.
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Nduhura, A., Tshombe, L. M., Molokwane, T., Twinomuhwezi, I. K., & Nuwagaba, I. (2021). Public-private partnerships and continuity of government service delivery in the era of COVID-19 outbreak in Sub-Saharan Africa. International Journal of Procurement Management, 14(4), 505-530.
Odhiambo, N. M. (2021). Health expenditure and economic growth in sub-Saharan Africa: an empirical investigation. Development Studies Research, 8(1), 73-81.
Ogujiuba, K., & Cornelissen, M. (2020). Macroeconomic theory and unemployment: A comparison between the Keynesian and new classical model. Acta Universitatis Danubius. Œconomica, 16(2).
Ouedraogo, I., Tabi, H. N., Ondoa, H. A., & Jiya, A. N. (2022). Institutional quality and human capital development in Africa. Economic Systems, 46(1), 100937.
OWUOR, C. (2022). Impact of Human Capital Development and Fixed Capital Formation on Agriculture Productivity in Uganda. (Doctoral dissertation, KENYATTA UNIVERSITY).
Pasara, M. T., & Garidzirai, R. (2020). Causality effects among gross capital formation, unemployment and economic growth in South Africa. Economies, 8(2), 26.
Piluso, N., & Colletis, G. (2021). A Keynesian reformulation of the WS-PS model: Keynesian unemployment and Classical unemployment. Economia Politica, 38(2), 447-460.
Prasetyo, P. E., & Cahyani, E. N. (2022). Investigating Keynesian Theory in Reducing Unemployment and Poverty in Indonesia. The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business (JAFEB), 9(10), 39-48.
Ramey, V. A. (2020). The macroeconomic consequences of infrastructure investment (No. w27625). Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research.
Rasul, I., Bandiera, O. R. I. A. N. A., Alfonsi, L., Burgess, R. O. B. I. N., Bassi, V., Vitali, A., & Sulaiman, M. (2020). Tackling Youth Unemployment: Evidence from a Labor Market Experiment in Uganda. Econometrica: journal of the Econometric Society, 88(6).
Robert, T., Charles, M., & Aisha, K. (2021). Effective financial resources management for school improvement and development in Uganda. African Journal of Educational Management, Teaching and Entrepreneurship Studies, 2(1), 1-18.
Sanchez, M. V., Cicowiez, M., & Pereira Fontes, F. (2022). Productive public investment in agriculture for economic recovery with rural well-being: An analysis of prospective scenarios for Uganda. Food & Agriculture Org., 16.
Semose, P. D., & Ogujiuba, K. K. (2021). Is there a nexus between inflation, exchange rate and unemployment in South Africa: an econometric analysis? Montenegrin Journal of Economics.
Singh, D., & Shastri, S. (2020). Public expenditure on education, educational attainment and unemployment nexus in India: an empirical investigation. International Journal of Social Economics, 47(5), 663-674.
Somé, J., Pasali, S., & Kaboine, M. (2019). Exploring the impact of healthcare on economic growth in Africa. Applied Economics and Finance, 6(3), 45-57.
Uddin, M. A., Ali, M. H., & Masih, M. (2021). Institutions, human capital and economic growth in developing countries. Studies in Economics and Finance, 38(2), 361-383.
Uneze, E. (2013). The relation between capital formation and economic growth: Evidence from sub-Saharan African countries. Journal of Economic Policy Reform, 16(3), 272-286.
Usman, H. M., Muktar, M., & Inuwa, N. (2015). Health outcomes and economic growth nexus: testing for long run relationship and causal links in Nigeria. International Journal of Economics and Empirical Research (IJEER), 3(4), 176-183.
Winniefred, k., & James, d. M. (2020). Supporting youths targeted agriculture programs to address youths’ unemployment: the case of the coffee value chain in Uganda
World Bank. (2023). Africa's Pulse, No. 28, October 2023: Delivering Growth to People through Better Jobs.
Adejumo, O. O., Asongu, S. A., & Adejumo, A. V. (2021). Education enrolment rate vs employment rate: Implications for sustainable human capital development in Nigeria. International Journal of Educational Development, 83, 102385.
Ajide, F. M. (2020). Infrastructure and entrepreneurship: Evidence from Africa. Journal of Developmental Entrepreneurship, 25(03), 2050015.
Akhmad, A., Amir, A., Saleh, S., & Abidin, Z. (2022). Effectiveness of Regional Government Expenditure in Reducing Unemployment and Poverty Rate. European Journal of Development Studies, 2(4), 90-99.
Alfonsi, L., Bandiera, O., Bassi, V., Burgess, R., Rasul, I., Sulaiman, M., & Vitali, A. (2020). Tackling youth unemployment: Evidence from a labor market experiment in Uganda. Econometrica, 88(6), 2369-2414.
Andyega, A. M. (2023). Analysis of inflation, unemployment, and the applicability of Philip’s curve in Uganda (Doctoral dissertation, Makerere University).
Anguyo, F. L., Gupta, R., & Kotzé, K. (2020). Inflation dynamics in Uganda: a quantile regression approach. Macroeconomics and Finance in Emerging Market Economies, 13(2), 161-187.
Anowor, O. F., Ichoku, H. E., & Onodugo, V. A. (2020). Nexus between healthcare financing and output per capita: Analysis of countries in ECOWAS sub-region. Cogent Economics & Finance, 8(1), 1832729.
Aprilianti, V., Harkeni, A., Andriany, E., & Bahri, Z. (2021, July). Paper Technical Efficiency of Infrastructure Spending Nexus Unemployment of District/Municipalities in Province of Jambi. In Proceedings of the International Conference on Industrial Engineering and Operations Management, Harbin, China (pp. 9-11).
Arthur, E. (2015). Health expenditure, health outcomes and economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa (Doctoral dissertation, UNIVERSITY OF BENIN).
Asiimwe, G. B. (2023). Interrogating unemployment amid growth: tracking youth unemployment in neo-liberal Uganda, 1990–2019. Journal of Asian and African Studies, 58(5), 812-828.
Azolibe, C. B., Nwadibe, C. E., & Okeke, C. M. G. (2020). Socio-economic determinants of public expenditure in Africa: assessing the influence of population age structure. International Journal of Social Economics, 47(11), 1403-1418.
Bandiera, O., Bassi, V., Burgess, R., Rasul, I., Sulaiman, M., & Vitali, A. (2023). The search for good jobs: evidence from a six-year field experiment in Uganda (No. w31570). National Bureau of Economic Research.
Cappelli, R., Montobbio, F., & Morrison, A. (2021). Unemployment resistance across EU regions: the role of technological and human capital. Journal of Evolutionary Economics, 31, 147-178.
Chindengwike, J., & Tyagi, R. (2022). The Vector Auto Regressive Analysis identifies government expenditure policy impact on sustainable economic development. Journal of Global Economy, 18(2), 110-122.
Egessa, A., Nnyanzi, J. B., & Muwanga, J. (2021). Determinants of youth unemployment in Uganda: The role of gender, education, residence, and age. IZA Journal of Labor Policy, 11(1).
Elliot, B. (2015). The relationship between inflation and unemployment in Ghana: Analysis of the Philips Curve. African Journal of Economic Review, 3(2), 117-124.
Epeju, W. F. (2020). Getting Out of Poverty in Uganda through Education in Agriculture. European Journal of Agriculture and Food Sciences, 2(2).
Faruk, B. U., Haque, M. I., Tausif, M. R., & Khan, M. R. (2022). The association between health expenditure, institutions, and economic growth in MENA countries. Health Promotion Perspectives, 12(1), 92.
Igbinedion, S. O., & Olele, E. H. (2018). Does public health expenditure promote health outcomes in Nigeria? Amity Journal of Healthcare Management, 3(1), 1-13.
International Labour Organization (ILO). (2024). Unemployment, total (% of total labor force) (modeled ILO estimate). Retrieved from https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SL.UEM.TOTL.ZS
James, M., Eria, H., & Ibrahim, M. (2023). Sectoral Growth Patterns and Unemployment in Uganda. East African Journal of Business and Economics, 6(1), 59-78.
Jeza, M. P., Greyling, L., & Ilesanmi, K. D. (2021). Inflation and Unemployment in the South African Democratic Era: Is There Any Trade-off (Doctoral dissertation, University of Zululand).
Julius, A., Kazaara, A. G., & Nelson, K. Relationship between Inflation and Unemployment in Uganda Arinaitwe Julius1, Ariyo Gracious Kazaara2, Kamugisha Nelson3 1, 2, 3 Metropolitan International University.
Kahn, R. F. (2022). Unemployment as seen by the Keynesians. In Richard F. Kahn: Collected Economic Essays (pp. 225-239). Cham: Springer International Publishing.
Kamanda, E., Lanpin, Y., & Sesay, B. (2022). Causal nexus between health expenditure, health outcome and economic growth: Empirical evidence from Sub?Saharan Africa countries. The International Journal of Health Planning and Management, 37(4), 2284-2302.
Kan, S., & Klasen, S. (2021). Evaluating universal primary education in Uganda: School fee abolition and educational outcomes. Review of Development Economics, 25(1), 116-147.
Khan, I., Xue, J., Zaman, S., & Mehmood, Z. (2023). Nexus between FDI, economic growth, industrialization, and employment opportunities: Empirical evidence from Pakistan. Journal of the Knowledge Economy, 14(3), 3153-3175.
Kilanko, O. (2019). The effects of health care expenditures on health outcomes in West Africa: analysis of selected 14 countries from 2000 to 2018.
Kim, J. (2021). An analysis of Uganda's vocational education: Assessing human capital and human development approaches. Issues in Educational Research, 31(2), 556-573.
King, J. E. (2022). Post Keynesian Economics. In Handbook of Alternative Theories of Political Economy (pp. 83-95). Edward Elgar Publishing.
Korkmaz, S., & Abdullazade, M. (2020). The causal relationship between unemployment and inflation in g6 countries. Advances in Economics and Business, 8(5), 303-309.
Lawanson, O. I., & Umar, D. I. (2020). Education Expenditure-Led Growth: Evidence from Nigeria (1980-2018). International Business Research, 13(3), 133-152.
Mathenge, S., & Muturi, W. (2021). Determinants of Unemployment in East African Community Countries. Account and Financial Management Journal, 6(10).
Mawejje, J., & Odhiambo, N. M. (2021). Uganda's fiscal policy reforms: What have we learned? Public Budgeting & Finance, 41(2), 89-107.
Meyer, D. F., & Sanusi, K. A. (2019). A causality analysis of the relationships between gross fixed capital formation, economic growth and employment in South Africa. Studia Universitatis Babes-Bolyai Oeconomica, 64(1), 33-44.
Muchira, J. (2018). Stimulating agribusiness entrepreneurship to solve youth unemployment in Kenya. IDS Policy Briefing, (158).
Mukisa, I., Nathan, S., & Bulime, E. W. (2020). Macroeconomic determinants of unemployment in the East African community. Tanzanian Economic Review, 10(2), 48-68.
Munyambonera, E., Ndatira, C. M., & Mfite, N. E. (2023). Analysis of the viability of core inflation components based on excluded items in Uganda. Kabale University Interdisciplinary Research Journal, 2(2), 51-76.
MUSE, A. F. I. (2022). POPULATION GROWTH AND UNEMPLOYMENT RATE IN UGANDA (1991-2019).
Muvawala, J., Sebukeera, H., & Ssebulime, K. (2021). Socio-economic impacts of transport infrastructure investment in Uganda: Insight from frontloading expenditure on Uganda's urban roads and highways. Research in Transportation Economics, 88, 100971.
Mwanika, K. (2022). Commercial sugarcane farming and rural youth livelihoods in Eastern Uganda.
Mwanika, K., Atekyereza, P., & Osterberg, T. (2021). Commercial Sugarcane Farming in Eastern Uganda: The answer to vulnerable youth? Eastern Africa Social Science Research Review, 37(1), 1-25.
Nakirijja, D. S., Kasirye, R., & Nabulya, A. (2020). Access to the job market: Findings from A venture development program for marginalized unemployed youth in Kampala Uganda. Advanced Journal of Social Science, 6(1), 26-37.
Nchake, M. A., & Shuaibu, M. (2022). Investment in ICT infrastructure and inclusive growth in Africa. Scientific African, 17, e01293.
Ndaguba, E. A., & Hlotywa, A. (2021). Public health expenditure and economic development: The case of South Africa between 1996 and 2016. Cogent Economics & Finance, 9(1), 1905932.
Nduhura, A., Settumba, J. P., Nuwagaba, I., & Lukamba, M. T. (2021). The Working of Public Private Partnerships in Local Government: Lessons for Sub-Saharan Africa. International Conference on Public Administration and Development Alternatives (IPADA).
Nduhura, A., Tshombe, L. M., Molokwane, T., Twinomuhwezi, I. K., & Nuwagaba, I. (2021). Public-private partnerships and continuity of government service delivery in the era of COVID-19 outbreak in Sub-Saharan Africa. International Journal of Procurement Management, 14(4), 505-530.
Odhiambo, N. M. (2021). Health expenditure and economic growth in sub-Saharan Africa: an empirical investigation. Development Studies Research, 8(1), 73-81.
Ogujiuba, K., & Cornelissen, M. (2020). Macroeconomic theory and unemployment: A comparison between the Keynesian and new classical model. Acta Universitatis Danubius. Œconomica, 16(2).
Ouedraogo, I., Tabi, H. N., Ondoa, H. A., & Jiya, A. N. (2022). Institutional quality and human capital development in Africa. Economic Systems, 46(1), 100937.
OWUOR, C. (2022). Impact of Human Capital Development and Fixed Capital Formation on Agriculture Productivity in Uganda. (Doctoral dissertation, KENYATTA UNIVERSITY).
Pasara, M. T., & Garidzirai, R. (2020). Causality effects among gross capital formation, unemployment and economic growth in South Africa. Economies, 8(2), 26.
Piluso, N., & Colletis, G. (2021). A Keynesian reformulation of the WS-PS model: Keynesian unemployment and Classical unemployment. Economia Politica, 38(2), 447-460.
Prasetyo, P. E., & Cahyani, E. N. (2022). Investigating Keynesian Theory in Reducing Unemployment and Poverty in Indonesia. The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business (JAFEB), 9(10), 39-48.
Ramey, V. A. (2020). The macroeconomic consequences of infrastructure investment (No. w27625). Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research.
Rasul, I., Bandiera, O. R. I. A. N. A., Alfonsi, L., Burgess, R. O. B. I. N., Bassi, V., Vitali, A., & Sulaiman, M. (2020). Tackling Youth Unemployment: Evidence from a Labor Market Experiment in Uganda. Econometrica: journal of the Econometric Society, 88(6).
Robert, T., Charles, M., & Aisha, K. (2021). Effective financial resources management for school improvement and development in Uganda. African Journal of Educational Management, Teaching and Entrepreneurship Studies, 2(1), 1-18.
Sanchez, M. V., Cicowiez, M., & Pereira Fontes, F. (2022). Productive public investment in agriculture for economic recovery with rural well-being: An analysis of prospective scenarios for Uganda. Food & Agriculture Org., 16.
Semose, P. D., & Ogujiuba, K. K. (2021). Is there a nexus between inflation, exchange rate and unemployment in South Africa: an econometric analysis? Montenegrin Journal of Economics.
Singh, D., & Shastri, S. (2020). Public expenditure on education, educational attainment and unemployment nexus in India: an empirical investigation. International Journal of Social Economics, 47(5), 663-674.
Somé, J., Pasali, S., & Kaboine, M. (2019). Exploring the impact of healthcare on economic growth in Africa. Applied Economics and Finance, 6(3), 45-57.
Uddin, M. A., Ali, M. H., & Masih, M. (2021). Institutions, human capital and economic growth in developing countries. Studies in Economics and Finance, 38(2), 361-383.
Uneze, E. (2013). The relation between capital formation and economic growth: Evidence from sub-Saharan African countries. Journal of Economic Policy Reform, 16(3), 272-286.
Usman, H. M., Muktar, M., & Inuwa, N. (2015). Health outcomes and economic growth nexus: testing for long run relationship and causal links in Nigeria. International Journal of Economics and Empirical Research (IJEER), 3(4), 176-183.
Winniefred, k., & James, d. M. (2020). Supporting youths targeted agriculture programs to address youths’ unemployment: the case of the coffee value chain in Uganda
World Bank. (2023). Africa's Pulse, No. 28, October 2023: Delivering Growth to People through Better Jobs.
Published
2024-04-07
How to Cite
Kijjambu, F. N., Musiita, B., & Katarangi, A. K. (2024). Human Capital Development and Unemployment in Uganda: The Keynesian Theory of Unemployment in Perspective. Journal of Economics and Behavioral Studies, 16(1(J), 94-108. https://doi.org/10.22610/jebs.v16i1(J).3713
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Copyright (c) 2024 Fredrick Nsambu Kijjambu, Benjamin Musiita, Asaph Kaburura Katarangi
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