Uganda’s Debt Sustainability: Testing The Efficacy of Debt Overhang Theory
Keywords:
Debt sustainability, Debt Overhang Theory, Uganda
Abstract
The primary objective of this paper is to discern the impact of key economic variables, including primary balance, real interest rate, GDP growth rate, real effective exchange rate, and current account balance, on the long-term and short-term sustainability of the country's debt. Drawing on an array of econometric analyses within the Auto Regressive Distributed Lag framework, the study establishes that a fiscal surplus and sound management positively influence debt sustainability in the long run. However, it reveals that higher real interest rates pose challenges, leading to increased debt loads. While GDP growth's impact remains inconclusive, a fluctuating real effective exchange rate and the influence of the current account balance on debt dynamics emerge as crucial determinants. The study recommends a cautious fiscal approach, interest rate management, economic growth stimulation, exchange rate stability, and a focus on achieving and maintaining current account surpluses as pivotal strategies for ensuring Uganda's long-term debt sustainability. Nonetheless, the study acknowledges limitations related to sample size and endogeneity, encouraging further research to enhance generalizability and address potential omitted variables.
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References
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Ajayi, S and Khan, J (2000), External debt and capital flight in sub-Saharan Africa, pp: 93–2
Ajayi, S. (1991). Macroeconomic Approach to External Debt: The Case of Nigeria. AERC Paper, No. 8.
Akram, N. (2011). Impact of Public Debt on the economic growth of Pakistan. The Pakistan Development Review, 599-615.
Alagidede, P., & Ibrahim, M. (2017). On the causes and effects of exchange rate volatility on economic growth: Evidence from Ghana. Journal of African Business, 18(2), 169-193.
Atta-Mensah, J., & Ibrahim, M. (2020). Explaining Africa’s debt: The journey so far and the arithmetic of the policymaker. Theoretical Economics Letters, 10(2), 409-441.
Awan, A., Asghar, N., & Rehman, H. (2011). The impact of exchange rate, fiscal deficit and terms of trade on the external debt of Pakistan. Australian Journal of Business and Management Research, 1(3), 10-24.
Awan, R., Anjum, A., Rahim, S. (2015). An econometric analysis of determinants of external debt in Pakistan. British Journal of Economics, Management and Trade, 5(4), 382391.
Babatunde, M. A. (2017). Trade openness and inflation in Nigeria: A nonlinear ARDL analysis. Journal of economics and sustainable development, 8(24), 129-148.
Bader, M. & Magableh, K. (2009). An inquiry into the main determinants of public debt in Jordan: An econometric study. Dirasat Administrative Sciences, 36(1), 181-190.
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Batrancea, L. (2021). An econometric approach regarding the impact of fiscal pressure on equilibrium: Evidence from electricity, gas and oil companies listed on the New York Stock Exchange. Mathematics, 9(6), 630.
Batrancea, L., Rathnaswamy, M. K., & Batrancea, I. (2022). A panel data analysis on determinants of economic growth in seven non-BCBS Countries. Journal of the Knowledge Economy, 13(2), 1651-1665.
Batrancea, L., Rathnaswamy, M. M., & Batrancea, I. (2021). A panel data analysis of economic growth determinants in 34 African countries. Journal of Risk and Financial Management, 14(6), 260.
Biemudo, K., Antonio, R., & Agustin, N. A. J. (2022). An empirical analysis of the impact of international trade on Philippine economic growth. Journal of Economics, Finance and Accounting Studies, 4(1), 607-628.
Bilquees, F. (2003). An analysis of budget deficits, debt accumulation, and debt instability. The Pakistan Development Review, 177-195.
Boubakri, S., Guillaumin, C., & Silanine, A. (2019). Non-linear relationship between real commodity price volatility and real effective exchange rate: The case of commodity-exporting countries. Journal of Macroeconomics, 60, 212-228.
Capital, E., & Capital, E. (2019). Barbados. Exotic Developing Markets Guide: Debt and Risk across the Frontier, 103-119.
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Chandia, K. E., Riaz, S., Javid, A. Y., Iqbal, M. B., Azam, M., & Gul, I. (2019). Assessment of public and external debt sustainability using debt dynamics equation approach: a comparative study of Pakistan and India. Millennial Asia, 10(1), 25-55.
Chhabra, M., Giri, A. K., & Kumar, A. (2023). What Shapes Economic Growth in BRICS? Exploring the Role of Institutional Quality and Trade Openness. Economic Papers: A journal of applied economics and policy.
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Eri?, M. N., & Ula?an, B. (2013). Trade openness and economic growth: Bayesian model averaging estimate of cross-country growth regressions. Economic Modelling, 33, 867-883.
Esaku, S. (2021). The long-and short-run relationship between the shadow economy and trade openness in Uganda. Cogent Economics & Finance, 9(1), 1930886.
Ghosh, A. R., Kim, J. I., Mendoza, E. G., Ostry, J. D., & Qureshi, M. S. (2013). Fiscal fatigue, fiscal space and debt sustainability in advanced economies. The Economic Journal, 123(566), F4-F30.
Greenidge, K., Drakes, L., & Craigwell, R. (2010). The external public debt in the Caribbean community. Journal of Policy Modelling, Vol (32), 418-431.
Herndon, T., Ash, M., & Pollin, R. (2014). Does high public debt consistently stifle economic growth? A critique of Reinhart and Rogoff. Cambridge journal of economics, 38(2), 257-279.
Igudia, P. O. (2004). Trade openness, investment and economic growth in Nigeria. African Economic and Business Review, 2(1), 1-15.
IMF (2000). Debt and reserve-related indicators of external vulnerability. IMF policy department paper, Washington DC: IMF.
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International Monetary Fund Annual Report (2018). Building a Shared Future.
International Monetary Fund (IMF) working paper (2020).
Kelbore, Z. G. (2015). Trade openness, structural transformation, and poverty reduction: empirical evidence from Africa.
Kim, D. H. (2011). Trade, growth and income. The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, 20(5), 677-709.
Kim, D. H., Lin, S. C., & Suen, Y. B. (2012). The simultaneous evolution of economic growth, financial development, and trade openness. The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, 21(4), 513-537.
Kiptoo, Ch. (2012). The Determinants of Kenya’s External Debt Sustainability. A Management Research Project submitted in partial fulfilment of the requirement for the award of the Degree of Masters in Business Administration (MBA), School of Business, University of Nairobi, Kenya.
Liu, Y. (2023). Government debt and risk premia. Journal of Monetary Economics.
Loser, C. M. (2004). External debt sustainability: guidelines for low-and middle-income countries (Vol. 26). UN.
Mageto, W. K. (2022). Resolving The Debt Sustainability Issues from A Legal and Institutional Perspective: A Focus on East Africa. Financing For Development, 1(4).
Mahmood, T., Rauf, S. A., & Ahmad, H. K. (2009). Public and external debt sustainability in Pakistan (1970s—2000s). Pakistan Economic and Social Review, 243-267.Malefane, M. R., & Odhiambo, N. M. (2021). Trade openness and economic growth: empirical evidence from Lesotho. Global Business Review, 22(5), 1103-1119.
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Ministry of Finance, Planning and Economic Development Annual Report (2022)
Ministry of Finance, Planning and Economic Development Annual Report (2022).
Mohammadi , L., & Tsiropoulos, V. (2020). A framework to assess debt sustainability under the Belt and Road Initiative. Journal of Development Economics, 146, 102495.
Mohammadi, H, Çak, M, & Çak, D. (2007). Capital Mobility and Foreign Debt Sustainability:
Mtar, K., & Belazreg, W. (2023). On the nexus of innovation, trade openness, financial development and economic growth in European countries: New perspective from a GMM panel VAR approach. International Journal of Finance & Economics, 28(1), 766-791.
Muhanji, S. & Ojah, K. (2011). Management and sustainability of external debt: A focus on the emerging economies of Africa. Review of Development Finance, 1, 184–206.
Mupunga, N., & Le Roux, P. (2016). Analyzing the theoretical and empirical foundations of public debt dynamics in Zimbabwe. Studies in Economics and Econometrics, 40(1), 95-118.
Mwankemwa, L. P., & Luvanda, E. (2022). Fiscal Deficit and its Threshold Effects on Inflation in Tanzania. African Journal of Economic Review, 10(1), 191-208.
Namahoro, J. P., Qiaosheng, W., & Hui, S. (2023). Economic growth, natural resource rents, and business openness nexus in regions and income levels of Africa: evidence from recent panel estimators. Mineral Economics, 1-16.
Naveed, S., & Islam, T. U. (2022). An empirical investigation of determinants & sustainability of public debt in Pakistan. Plos one, 17(9), e0275266.
Ncube, M., & Brixiová, Z. (2015). Public debt sustainability in Africa: Building resilience and challenges ahead. Development Policy Review, 33(5), 555-580.
Owusu-Nantwi, V., & Owusu-Nantwi, G. (2023). Public debt, corruption and shadow economy in Africa: an empirical analysis. Journal of Economic and Administrative Sciences, 39(1), 184-
Pesaran M. Shin Y. 1999 An Autoregressive Distributed Lag Modelling Approach to Cointegration Analysis, Econometrics and Economic Theory in the 20th Century: The Ragnar Frisch Centennial Symposium. Chapter 11, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge. https://doi:10.12691/jfe-4-6-4
Piscetek, M. (2019). Public debt dynamics in New Zealand (No. 19/01). New Zealand Treasury Working Paper.
Pyeman, J., Noor, N., Mohamad, W., & Yahya, A. (2014). Factors Affecting External Debt in Malaysia: An Empirical Investigation. Proceedings of the first AAGBS International Conference on Business Management; 2014.
Reis, R. (2022). Debt Revenue and the Sustainability of Public Debt. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 36(4), 103-24.
Reis, R. (2022). Steady Prices, Sustainable Debt. Finance and Development, 59(1), 16-19.
Serumaga, M. (2023). The case for repudiation of Uganda's public debt–CADTM.202.
Shankar, S., & Trivedi, P. (2023). Assessing India’s fiscal sustainability considering debt–deficit and financing dynamics. Indian Economic Review, 1-30.
Solomon, O. I., & Tukur, M. U. (2019). Trade openness and economic growth in the developing countries: evidence from Nigeria. International Journal of Academic Research in Economics and Management Sciences, 8(3), 30-42.
Song, L., & Zhou, Y. (2020). The COVID?19 pandemic and its impact on the global economy: what does it take to turn crisis into opportunity? China & World Economy, 28(4), 1-25.
Thullah, J. A. (2023). Rising Debt Burden and Its Impact on the Implementation of Three (3) Sustainable Development Goals in the Commonwealth African Member Countries (2016-2022). Journal of World Economic Research, 12(1), 1-18.
Thuy, V. N. T., & Thuy, D. T. T. (2019). The impact of exchange rate volatility on exports in Vietnam: A bounds testing approach. Journal of Risk and Financial Management, 12(1), 6.
Tran, V. (2022). Examine the effects of real effective exchange rates on export growth: A closer look into Asian Developing Economies. In Proceedings of the Jepson Undergraduate Conference on International Economics (Vol. 4, No. 1, p. 2).
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Wyplosz, C. (2011). Debt sustainability assessment: Mission impossible. Review of Economics and Institutions, 2(3), 37.
Ajayi, S and Khan, J (2000), External debt and capital flight in sub-Saharan Africa, pp: 93–2
Ajayi, S. (1991). Macroeconomic Approach to External Debt: The Case of Nigeria. AERC Paper, No. 8.
Akram, N. (2011). Impact of Public Debt on the economic growth of Pakistan. The Pakistan Development Review, 599-615.
Alagidede, P., & Ibrahim, M. (2017). On the causes and effects of exchange rate volatility on economic growth: Evidence from Ghana. Journal of African Business, 18(2), 169-193.
Atta-Mensah, J., & Ibrahim, M. (2020). Explaining Africa’s debt: The journey so far and the arithmetic of the policymaker. Theoretical Economics Letters, 10(2), 409-441.
Awan, A., Asghar, N., & Rehman, H. (2011). The impact of exchange rate, fiscal deficit and terms of trade on the external debt of Pakistan. Australian Journal of Business and Management Research, 1(3), 10-24.
Awan, R., Anjum, A., Rahim, S. (2015). An econometric analysis of determinants of external debt in Pakistan. British Journal of Economics, Management and Trade, 5(4), 382391.
Babatunde, M. A. (2017). Trade openness and inflation in Nigeria: A nonlinear ARDL analysis. Journal of economics and sustainable development, 8(24), 129-148.
Bader, M. & Magableh, K. (2009). An inquiry into the main determinants of public debt in Jordan: An econometric study. Dirasat Administrative Sciences, 36(1), 181-190.
Bank of Uganda. (2022). Annual Report 2020/2021
Barungi, B., & Atingi, M. (2000). Growth and foreign debt: The Ugandan experience. In Ajayi, & Khan (Eds.), External debt and capital flight in sub-Saharan Africa, pp: 93–127.
Batrancea, L. (2021). An econometric approach regarding the impact of fiscal pressure on equilibrium: Evidence from electricity, gas and oil companies listed on the New York Stock Exchange. Mathematics, 9(6), 630.
Batrancea, L., Rathnaswamy, M. K., & Batrancea, I. (2022). A panel data analysis on determinants of economic growth in seven non-BCBS Countries. Journal of the Knowledge Economy, 13(2), 1651-1665.
Batrancea, L., Rathnaswamy, M. M., & Batrancea, I. (2021). A panel data analysis of economic growth determinants in 34 African countries. Journal of Risk and Financial Management, 14(6), 260.
Biemudo, K., Antonio, R., & Agustin, N. A. J. (2022). An empirical analysis of the impact of international trade on Philippine economic growth. Journal of Economics, Finance and Accounting Studies, 4(1), 607-628.
Bilquees, F. (2003). An analysis of budget deficits, debt accumulation, and debt instability. The Pakistan Development Review, 177-195.
Boubakri, S., Guillaumin, C., & Silanine, A. (2019). Non-linear relationship between real commodity price volatility and real effective exchange rate: The case of commodity-exporting countries. Journal of Macroeconomics, 60, 212-228.
Capital, E., & Capital, E. (2019). Barbados. Exotic Developing Markets Guide: Debt and Risk across the Frontier, 103-119.
Chandia, K. E., & Javid, A. Y. (2013). An analysis of debt sustainability in the economy of Pakistan. Procedia Economics and Finance, 5, 133-142.
Chandia, K. E., Riaz, S., Javid, A. Y., Iqbal, M. B., Azam, M., & Gul, I. (2019). Assessment of public and external debt sustainability using debt dynamics equation approach: a comparative study of Pakistan and India. Millennial Asia, 10(1), 25-55.
Chhabra, M., Giri, A. K., & Kumar, A. (2023). What Shapes Economic Growth in BRICS? Exploring the Role of Institutional Quality and Trade Openness. Economic Papers: A journal of applied economics and policy.
Cirolia, L. R. (2020). Fractured fiscal authority and fragmented infrastructures: Financing sustainable urban development in Sub-Saharan Africa. Habitat International, 104, 102233
Das, S. (2023). Fiscal consolidation. In Elgar Encyclopaedia of Post-Keynesian Economics (pp. 177-179). Edward Elgar Publishing Limited.
Dauti, B., & Elezi, S. (2022). Economic growth in the Central East European Union and the Western Balkan countries in the course of the Stability and Growth Pact and COVID-19. Zbornik radova Ekonomskog fakulteta u Rijeci: ?asopis za ekonomsku teoriju i praksu, 40(1), 29-61.
Debaere., P. (2023) The European Union and the Coronavirus: What Did it Learn from the Great Recession?
Debrun, X., Ostry, J. D., Willems, T., & Wyplosz, C. (2019). Debt Sustainability. Sovereign debt: A guide for economists and practitioners, 151.
Deheri, A., & Nag, A. (2022). Assessing the Long-Run Sustainability of Public Debt and Fiscal Deficit in India. Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies, 09749101221113881.
D'Erasmo, P., & Mendoza, E. G. (2016). Optimal domestic (and external) sovereign default (No. w22509). National Bureau of Economic Research.
Eri?, M. N., & Ula?an, B. (2013). Trade openness and economic growth: Bayesian model averaging estimate of cross-country growth regressions. Economic Modelling, 33, 867-883.
Esaku, S. (2021). The long-and short-run relationship between the shadow economy and trade openness in Uganda. Cogent Economics & Finance, 9(1), 1930886.
Ghosh, A. R., Kim, J. I., Mendoza, E. G., Ostry, J. D., & Qureshi, M. S. (2013). Fiscal fatigue, fiscal space and debt sustainability in advanced economies. The Economic Journal, 123(566), F4-F30.
Greenidge, K., Drakes, L., & Craigwell, R. (2010). The external public debt in the Caribbean community. Journal of Policy Modelling, Vol (32), 418-431.
Herndon, T., Ash, M., & Pollin, R. (2014). Does high public debt consistently stifle economic growth? A critique of Reinhart and Rogoff. Cambridge journal of economics, 38(2), 257-279.
Igudia, P. O. (2004). Trade openness, investment and economic growth in Nigeria. African Economic and Business Review, 2(1), 1-15.
IMF (2000). Debt and reserve-related indicators of external vulnerability. IMF policy department paper, Washington DC: IMF.
IMF (2020). Consultation-Debt sustainability analysis. Available
Imimole, B., Ehikioya, L., & Okhuese, M. (2014). Determinants and Sustainability of External Debt in a Deregulated Economy: A Cointegration Analysis from Nigeria (1986-2010). American International Journal of Contemporary Research, 4(6), 201-214.
International Monetary Fund Annual Report (2018). Building a Shared Future.
International Monetary Fund (IMF) working paper (2020).
Kelbore, Z. G. (2015). Trade openness, structural transformation, and poverty reduction: empirical evidence from Africa.
Kim, D. H. (2011). Trade, growth and income. The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, 20(5), 677-709.
Kim, D. H., Lin, S. C., & Suen, Y. B. (2012). The simultaneous evolution of economic growth, financial development, and trade openness. The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, 21(4), 513-537.
Kiptoo, Ch. (2012). The Determinants of Kenya’s External Debt Sustainability. A Management Research Project submitted in partial fulfilment of the requirement for the award of the Degree of Masters in Business Administration (MBA), School of Business, University of Nairobi, Kenya.
Liu, Y. (2023). Government debt and risk premia. Journal of Monetary Economics.
Loser, C. M. (2004). External debt sustainability: guidelines for low-and middle-income countries (Vol. 26). UN.
Mageto, W. K. (2022). Resolving The Debt Sustainability Issues from A Legal and Institutional Perspective: A Focus on East Africa. Financing For Development, 1(4).
Mahmood, T., Rauf, S. A., & Ahmad, H. K. (2009). Public and external debt sustainability in Pakistan (1970s—2000s). Pakistan Economic and Social Review, 243-267.Malefane, M. R., & Odhiambo, N. M. (2021). Trade openness and economic growth: empirical evidence from Lesotho. Global Business Review, 22(5), 1103-1119.
Malla, M. H., & Pathranarakul, P. (2022). The Fiscal and Institutional Effects on Income Inequality: An Empirical Analysis (Doctoral Dissertation, National Institute of Development Administration).
Manasseh, C. O., Abada, F. C., Okiche, E. L., Okanya, O., Nwakoby, I. C., Offu, P., ... & Nwonye, N. G. (2022). External debt and economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa: Does governance matter? Plos one, 17(3), e0264082.
Ministry of Finance, Planning and Economic Development Annual Report (2022)
Ministry of Finance, Planning and Economic Development Annual Report (2022).
Mohammadi , L., & Tsiropoulos, V. (2020). A framework to assess debt sustainability under the Belt and Road Initiative. Journal of Development Economics, 146, 102495.
Mohammadi, H, Çak, M, & Çak, D. (2007). Capital Mobility and Foreign Debt Sustainability:
Mtar, K., & Belazreg, W. (2023). On the nexus of innovation, trade openness, financial development and economic growth in European countries: New perspective from a GMM panel VAR approach. International Journal of Finance & Economics, 28(1), 766-791.
Muhanji, S. & Ojah, K. (2011). Management and sustainability of external debt: A focus on the emerging economies of Africa. Review of Development Finance, 1, 184–206.
Mupunga, N., & Le Roux, P. (2016). Analyzing the theoretical and empirical foundations of public debt dynamics in Zimbabwe. Studies in Economics and Econometrics, 40(1), 95-118.
Mwankemwa, L. P., & Luvanda, E. (2022). Fiscal Deficit and its Threshold Effects on Inflation in Tanzania. African Journal of Economic Review, 10(1), 191-208.
Namahoro, J. P., Qiaosheng, W., & Hui, S. (2023). Economic growth, natural resource rents, and business openness nexus in regions and income levels of Africa: evidence from recent panel estimators. Mineral Economics, 1-16.
Naveed, S., & Islam, T. U. (2022). An empirical investigation of determinants & sustainability of public debt in Pakistan. Plos one, 17(9), e0275266.
Ncube, M., & Brixiová, Z. (2015). Public debt sustainability in Africa: Building resilience and challenges ahead. Development Policy Review, 33(5), 555-580.
Owusu-Nantwi, V., & Owusu-Nantwi, G. (2023). Public debt, corruption and shadow economy in Africa: an empirical analysis. Journal of Economic and Administrative Sciences, 39(1), 184-
Pesaran M. Shin Y. 1999 An Autoregressive Distributed Lag Modelling Approach to Cointegration Analysis, Econometrics and Economic Theory in the 20th Century: The Ragnar Frisch Centennial Symposium. Chapter 11, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge. https://doi:10.12691/jfe-4-6-4
Piscetek, M. (2019). Public debt dynamics in New Zealand (No. 19/01). New Zealand Treasury Working Paper.
Pyeman, J., Noor, N., Mohamad, W., & Yahya, A. (2014). Factors Affecting External Debt in Malaysia: An Empirical Investigation. Proceedings of the first AAGBS International Conference on Business Management; 2014.
Reis, R. (2022). Debt Revenue and the Sustainability of Public Debt. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 36(4), 103-24.
Reis, R. (2022). Steady Prices, Sustainable Debt. Finance and Development, 59(1), 16-19.
Serumaga, M. (2023). The case for repudiation of Uganda's public debt–CADTM.202.
Shankar, S., & Trivedi, P. (2023). Assessing India’s fiscal sustainability considering debt–deficit and financing dynamics. Indian Economic Review, 1-30.
Solomon, O. I., & Tukur, M. U. (2019). Trade openness and economic growth in the developing countries: evidence from Nigeria. International Journal of Academic Research in Economics and Management Sciences, 8(3), 30-42.
Song, L., & Zhou, Y. (2020). The COVID?19 pandemic and its impact on the global economy: what does it take to turn crisis into opportunity? China & World Economy, 28(4), 1-25.
Thullah, J. A. (2023). Rising Debt Burden and Its Impact on the Implementation of Three (3) Sustainable Development Goals in the Commonwealth African Member Countries (2016-2022). Journal of World Economic Research, 12(1), 1-18.
Thuy, V. N. T., & Thuy, D. T. T. (2019). The impact of exchange rate volatility on exports in Vietnam: A bounds testing approach. Journal of Risk and Financial Management, 12(1), 6.
Tran, V. (2022). Examine the effects of real effective exchange rates on export growth: A closer look into Asian Developing Economies. In Proceedings of the Jepson Undergraduate Conference on International Economics (Vol. 4, No. 1, p. 2).
Tsigaris, P., Teixeira da Silva, J. A., & Honma, M. (2023). The impact of COVID-19 on Japan’s economic outlook. Available at SSRN 4372146.
World Bank. (2020). Poverty and shared prosperity 2020: Reversals of fortune. The World Bank.
Wray, L. R. (2019). Alternative paths to modern money theory. real-world economics review, 89(1), 5-22.
Wyplosz, C. (2011). Debt sustainability assessment: Mission impossible. Review of Economics and Institutions, 2(3), 37.
Published
2023-12-27
How to Cite
Musiita, B., Kijjambu, F. N., Katarangi, A. K., Kahangane, G., & Akampwera, S. (2023). Uganda’s Debt Sustainability: Testing The Efficacy of Debt Overhang Theory. Journal of Economics and Behavioral Studies, 15(4(J), 37-54. https://doi.org/10.22610/jebs.v15i4(J).3657
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Research Paper
Copyright (c) 2023 Benjamin Musiita, Fredrick Nsambu Kijjambu, Asaph Kabuura Katarangi, Geoffrey Kahangane, Sheila Akampwera
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