Determinants of Export Performance in Uganda (1989-2020)
Keywords:
Export performance; Foreign Direct Investment net inflows; inflation; Real Exchange Rate; co-integration tests; Uganda
Abstract
The study is set to investigate the factors determining export performance in Uganda. The specific objectives of the study are to examine the relationship between Foreign Direct Investment net inflows, inflation, Real Exchange Rate and export performance from 1989 to 2020. The study adopted a longitudinal design and the analysis was based on stationarity tests, co-integration tests, ordinary least squares tests and finally diagnostic tests. The study results show that there is a significant relationship between foreign direct investments and export performance. Secondly, it was found that there was a relationship between inflation and export performance. The study also observed a significant relationship between inflation and export performance. Finally, it was found that the real exchange rate affects export performance. The study concludes that the development of foreign direct investments induces export performance; hence export performance can be generated through foreign direct investments. The study also concludes that the state of inflation reduction can be a general development of the export performance for the countries, while the real exchange rate is a key determinant for the export performance in Uganda from 1989 to 2020. The study recommends that there is a need for regulations and monitoring to ensure the proper form of foreign businesses in the country together with enhancing the management situation for the management of the business. Secondly, the policies intended to reduce inflation are needed to increase the capacity of businesses to operate and attain mechanisms for the reduction of inflation. Finally, the government should also embark on strong fiscal policy to reduce unnecessary money supply which can lead to inflation that negatively impacts on economy & reduces economic growth.
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References
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Terrain: A Study of Non-Family Station Organization", Information Management and Business Review, 12(1), 45-62
Bosscher, R.J. and Smit, J.H. (1998), "Confirmatory factor analysis of the general self-efficacy scale”, Behaviour Research and Therapy, 36(3), 339-343.
Büthe& Milner (2008). ‘‘The Volatility of Foreign Direct Investment Flows into Developing Countries: Impact of International and Domestic Institutions’’, A paper presented at the International Economics Institutions Workshop in Seoul.
Camarero&Tamarit (2003). ‘‘Estimating exports and imports demand for Manufactured goods: The role of FDI’’, Working Paper no. 22/2003.
Cardoza, G., Fornes, G., Farber, V., Duarte, R.G. and Gutierrez, J.R. (2016), “Barriers and public policies affecting the international expansion of Latin American SMEs: evidence from Brazil, Colombia, and Peru”, Journal of Business Research, 69(6), 2030-2039.
Chugan, P.K. and Singh, S. (2015), “Export commitment and its impact on firm-level export performance: evidence from SMEs cluster of Ahmedabad, India. Journal of behavioural economics”, Finance, Entrepreneurship, Accounting and Transport, 3(3), 90-95
Development Indicators, Washington DC: Eastern Africa Department, The World Bank
Eze, T.O. & Awolusi, O.D. (2018) ‘Effect of Critical Factors on Expatriate Assignment Performance in the
Nigerian Oil and Gas Sector, Global Journal of Interdisciplinary Social Sciences, 7(2), 6-19
Fernandez-Mesa, A. and Alegre, J. (2015), “Entrepreneurial orientation and export intensity: examining the interplay of organizational learning and innovation”, International Business Review, 24(1), 148-156.
Fernando, Y., Fitrianingrum, A. and Richardson, C. (2017), “Organisational determinants of export performance: evidence from exporting firms in Batam, Indonesia”, International Journal of Business Excellence, 11(1), 504-523
Freeman, J., Styles, C. and Lawley, M. (2012), “Does firm location make a difference to the export performance of SMEs?”, International Marketing Review, 29(1), 88-113
International Development Research Centre (1986). ‘‘Economic adjustment and long term development in Uganda’’, A report of the Uganda Economic Study Team, Government of Uganda and IDRC, Ottawa
Jaradat M, Al-Zeaud HA, Al-Rawahneh H. (2011). An econometric analysis of the determinants of inflation in Jordan. Journal of Middle Eastern Finance and Economics. 15(1), 121-132
Jayaraman & Chee-Keong (2006). ‘‘Foreign direct investment in the South Pacific Island Countries: a case study of Fiji’’, World Review of Entrepreneurship, Management and Sustainable Development, 2(1), 234-245
Jin, B. and Cho, H.J. (2018), “Examining the role of international entrepreneurial orientation, domestic market competition, and technological and marketing capabilities on SME’s export performance”, Journal of Business & Industrial Marketing, 33(5), 585-598
Kingori, B.M (2021). An Analysis of the determinants of Private Sector investment in Kenya using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Approach: A thesis For Masters of Science in Economics. Namibia: University of Namibia.
Joiya SA, Shahzad AA. (2013). Determinants of high food prices: The case of Pakistan. Pakistan Economic and Social Review. 51(1), 93-107
Love, J.H., Roper, S. and Zhou, Y. (2016), "Experience, age and exporting performance in UK SMEs”, International Business Review, 25(4), 806-819
Manzanares, F.V. (2019), “Export performance of SMEs: an empirical analysis of the mediating role of corporate image”, Journal of Small Business Management, 57(2), 386-399
Mohammed, O.Z, Parker, I. Fand O made, S.I. (2011).Co-integration analysis of foreign direct investment inflow and development in Uganda. Developing countries studies, 1(1), 56-67
Shirro, A. A. (2009), "The impact of foreign direct investment on the Ugandan economy”, department of finance, University of Lagos, Uganda.
Morgan, N.A., Kaleka, A. and Katsikeas, C.S. (2014), “Antecedents of export venture performance: a theoretical model and empirical assessment”, Journal of Marketing, 68(1), 90-108
Njinyah, S.Z. (2018), "The effectiveness of government policies for export promotion on the export performance of SMEs cocoa exporters in Cameroon”, International Marketing Review, 35(1), 164-185
Olatunji, G. B., Omotesho, O.A., Ayinde O & Ayinde, K. (2017). Determinants of inflation in Nigeria: A co-integration approach. Joint 3rd African Association of Agricultural Economists (AAAE) and 48th Agricultural Economists Association of South Africa (AEASA) Conference. Cape Town: Institution of Economic Research and Innovation (IERI)
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Oseni,I.O and Enilolobo, O.S.(2011).Effect of foreign direct investment and stock market development on economic growth in Uganda(1980-2009).European Journal of Business and Management. 3(12), 235-245
Oura, M.M. (2016), “Innovation capacity, international experience, and export performance of SMEs in Brazil”, International Business Review, 25(4), 921-932
Rehman FU and Khan D (2015) The determinants of food price inflation in Pakistan: An econometric analysis. Advances in Economics and Business. 3(12), 571- 576
Safari, A. and Saleh, A.S. (2020), "Key determinants of SMEs’ export performance: a resource-based view and contingency theory approach using potential mediators", Journal of Business & Industrial Marketing, 35(4), 635-654
Stoian, M.C., Rialp, A. and Rialp, J. (2011), “Export performance under the microscope: a glance through Spanish lenses”, International Business Review, 20(2), 117-135.
UBOS (2021). Monthly merchandise trade statistics bulletin
Ugochukwu, U. S., Okore, A. O. andOnoh, J. O.(2013).the impact of foreign direct investment on the Ugandan economy. European journal of business and management. 5(2), 253-259
UNCTAD (1998). “Trends and determinants”, World Investment Report.
UNCTAD (1999). ‘‘Foreign Direct Investment and the challenge of Development’’, World Investment Report.
UNCTAD (2000). ‘‘Cross-border Mergers and Acquisitions and Development’’ World Investment Report, Investment Report.
UNCTAD (2002).‘‘Transnational Corporations and Export Competitiveness’’, World Investment Report.
Wang, Z., Q., and Swain, N., J. (1995), “The Determinants of Foreign Direct Investment in transforming economies: Evidence from Hungary and China”, WeltwirtschaftlichesArchiv, 131(1), 359-82
Wheeler, D., and Mody, A. (1992), “International Investment Location Decision: The case of US Firms”, Journal of International Economics, 33(1), 57-76
WTO (1995). Trade Policy Review: Uganda 1995, Volumes I and II, Geneva: World Trade Organisation.
Yan Ga, Brouthers, L., and Mcnicol (2008), “Corruption and market attractiveness influences on different types of FDI”, Strategic management journal, 29(1), 673-680
Zakia,MandZiad,A.(2007).the impact of foreign direct investment and imports on economic growth: the case of Jordan, Journal of Economic and Administrative Sciences, 23(1), 1-31
Zhang (2001). ‘‘Does Foreign Direct Investment Promote Economic Growth? Evidence from East Asia and Latin America’’, Contemporary Economic Policy, 19 (2),175- 185
Zahonongo, P. (2020). Trade and Economic Growth in Developing Countries: Evidence from Sub-saharan Africa.” Journal of African Trade, 34(1), 12-26
resource endowment, Department of Economics and Economic History, Rhodes University,
Grahams town, South Africa.
Adeleye, J.O and O.S. and Adewuyi, M.O Adeteye. (2021). Impact of International Trade on Economic Growth in Nigeria.” International Journal of Finance Research, 6(3), 163-175
Adeolu, E.(2007). On the determinants of foreign direct investment to developing countries: Is Africa different? World Development, 30(1), 107—19.
Adofu, I. (2009).Accelerating economic growth in Uganda, the role of foreign direct investment. Current Research Journal of Economic Theory 2(1), 11-15
AgarwalJ.P.,(1980) ‘‘Determinants of Foreign Direct Investment”, WeltwirtschaftlichesArchiv, 4(116), 739-73
Agnihotri, A. and Bhattacharya, S. (2015), “Determinants of export intensity in emerging markets: an upper echelon perspective”, Journal of World Business, 50(4), 687-695.
Ahmed, A.D., Enjiang, C. and Messinis, G.(2007). ‘‘Causal Links between Export, FDI and Output: Evidence from Sub-Saharan African Countries’’, Working Paper No. 35, Centre for Strategic Economic Studies, Victoria University.
Aina, S. A., Awolusi, O. D. & Odunlami, S. A. (2015). “Dynamics of Conflict in Nigerian Educational System:
Evidence from Nigerian Universities”, International Journal of Energy Policy and Management, 1(2), 33-42
Alfaro,L.Chanda, A.Kalemli-ozcan,A and Sayek,S. (2006). How does foreign direct investment promote economic growth? Exploring the effects of financial markets on linkages.
Appleton, S, (2000) “Poverty in Uganda; Preliminary Estimates from the UNHS,” Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK, 2000.
Angomoko, B.B. (2020). The Effect of Chinese Economic Growth on South Africa's Exports to China. Submitted in accordance with the requirements for the degree of Master of Commerce in the subject of Economics. The University of South Africa.
Awokuse, T.WeishiGu and Yan Yuan (2008). “The contribution of Foreign Direct Investment to China’s Export performance: Evidence from Disaggregated sectors”, 2008 Annual Meeting, July 27-29, 2008, Orlando, Florida 6453, American Agricultural Economics Association
Awolusi, O.D. (2021), “Economic Growth and Socioeconomic Sustainability in BRICS Countries: A Vector Error Correction Modeling Approach ", Journal of Economics and Behavioral Studies, 13(3), 1-23
Awolusi, O.D. & Mbonigaba, J. (2020), “Socioeconomic sustainability and economic growth in BRICS: relationships and policy options ", International Journal of Services, Economics and Management, 11(4), 390–429
Awolusi, O.D. & Mbonigaba, J. (2020b), “Economic growth and environmental sustainability within BRICS countries: A comparative analysis ", International Journal of Green Economics, 14(3), 207–246
Awolusi, O.D. (2009), Technology Transfer, Foreign Direct Investment & Economic growth: a comparative analysis of Asian and African economies. Unpublished M.Sc. dissertation, submitted to Nottingham Business School, University of Nottingham, United Kingdom
Awolusi, O.D. (2012), “The effects of mergers and acquisitions on business Performance in the Nigerian banking
industry: an empirical analysis”, International Journal of Business Performance Management, 13(3/4), 366–385
Ayanwale,A. B. (2007).“FDI and economic growth: evidence from Uganda.”AERC research paper 165. African Economic Research Consortium, Nairobi.
Bandera, V.N. and White, J.T. (1968), “U.S. Direct Investments and Domestic Markets in Europe”, Economic Internalizationale, 21(1), 117-133.
Barrell, R, & Nigel P, (1998), "Real Exchange rates, Agglomerations, and Irreversibility: Macroeconomic Policy and FDI in EMU”, Oxford Review of Economic Policy, 14(3), 152-167
Basu and Srinivasan (2002), “Foreign Direct Investment in Africa-Some Case Studies” International Monetary Fund working paper, Issues 2002-2061.
Behname, M. (2012).Foreign direct investment and economic growth: evidence from southern Asia. Atlantic Review of Economics – 2nd volume advances in Management &Applied Economics, 3(1), 35-45.
Beleska-Spasova, E. (2014), "Determinants and measures of export performance–a comprehensive literature review”, Journal of Contemporary Economic and Business Issues, 1(1), 63 -74
Bhagwati J. N. (1978), “Anatomy and Consequences of Exchange Rates Regimes”, Studies in International Economic Relations, 1, 10, New York: NBER
Blazi, C. & Awolusi, O.D. (2020), “Employee Engagement in Multinational Diverse Organizations in Difficult
Terrain: A Study of Non-Family Station Organization", Information Management and Business Review, 12(1), 45-62
Bosscher, R.J. and Smit, J.H. (1998), "Confirmatory factor analysis of the general self-efficacy scale”, Behaviour Research and Therapy, 36(3), 339-343.
Büthe& Milner (2008). ‘‘The Volatility of Foreign Direct Investment Flows into Developing Countries: Impact of International and Domestic Institutions’’, A paper presented at the International Economics Institutions Workshop in Seoul.
Camarero&Tamarit (2003). ‘‘Estimating exports and imports demand for Manufactured goods: The role of FDI’’, Working Paper no. 22/2003.
Cardoza, G., Fornes, G., Farber, V., Duarte, R.G. and Gutierrez, J.R. (2016), “Barriers and public policies affecting the international expansion of Latin American SMEs: evidence from Brazil, Colombia, and Peru”, Journal of Business Research, 69(6), 2030-2039.
Chugan, P.K. and Singh, S. (2015), “Export commitment and its impact on firm-level export performance: evidence from SMEs cluster of Ahmedabad, India. Journal of behavioural economics”, Finance, Entrepreneurship, Accounting and Transport, 3(3), 90-95
Development Indicators, Washington DC: Eastern Africa Department, The World Bank
Eze, T.O. & Awolusi, O.D. (2018) ‘Effect of Critical Factors on Expatriate Assignment Performance in the
Nigerian Oil and Gas Sector, Global Journal of Interdisciplinary Social Sciences, 7(2), 6-19
Fernandez-Mesa, A. and Alegre, J. (2015), “Entrepreneurial orientation and export intensity: examining the interplay of organizational learning and innovation”, International Business Review, 24(1), 148-156.
Fernando, Y., Fitrianingrum, A. and Richardson, C. (2017), “Organisational determinants of export performance: evidence from exporting firms in Batam, Indonesia”, International Journal of Business Excellence, 11(1), 504-523
Freeman, J., Styles, C. and Lawley, M. (2012), “Does firm location make a difference to the export performance of SMEs?”, International Marketing Review, 29(1), 88-113
International Development Research Centre (1986). ‘‘Economic adjustment and long term development in Uganda’’, A report of the Uganda Economic Study Team, Government of Uganda and IDRC, Ottawa
Jaradat M, Al-Zeaud HA, Al-Rawahneh H. (2011). An econometric analysis of the determinants of inflation in Jordan. Journal of Middle Eastern Finance and Economics. 15(1), 121-132
Jayaraman & Chee-Keong (2006). ‘‘Foreign direct investment in the South Pacific Island Countries: a case study of Fiji’’, World Review of Entrepreneurship, Management and Sustainable Development, 2(1), 234-245
Jin, B. and Cho, H.J. (2018), “Examining the role of international entrepreneurial orientation, domestic market competition, and technological and marketing capabilities on SME’s export performance”, Journal of Business & Industrial Marketing, 33(5), 585-598
Kingori, B.M (2021). An Analysis of the determinants of Private Sector investment in Kenya using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Approach: A thesis For Masters of Science in Economics. Namibia: University of Namibia.
Joiya SA, Shahzad AA. (2013). Determinants of high food prices: The case of Pakistan. Pakistan Economic and Social Review. 51(1), 93-107
Love, J.H., Roper, S. and Zhou, Y. (2016), "Experience, age and exporting performance in UK SMEs”, International Business Review, 25(4), 806-819
Manzanares, F.V. (2019), “Export performance of SMEs: an empirical analysis of the mediating role of corporate image”, Journal of Small Business Management, 57(2), 386-399
Mohammed, O.Z, Parker, I. Fand O made, S.I. (2011).Co-integration analysis of foreign direct investment inflow and development in Uganda. Developing countries studies, 1(1), 56-67
Shirro, A. A. (2009), "The impact of foreign direct investment on the Ugandan economy”, department of finance, University of Lagos, Uganda.
Morgan, N.A., Kaleka, A. and Katsikeas, C.S. (2014), “Antecedents of export venture performance: a theoretical model and empirical assessment”, Journal of Marketing, 68(1), 90-108
Njinyah, S.Z. (2018), "The effectiveness of government policies for export promotion on the export performance of SMEs cocoa exporters in Cameroon”, International Marketing Review, 35(1), 164-185
Olatunji, G. B., Omotesho, O.A., Ayinde O & Ayinde, K. (2017). Determinants of inflation in Nigeria: A co-integration approach. Joint 3rd African Association of Agricultural Economists (AAAE) and 48th Agricultural Economists Association of South Africa (AEASA) Conference. Cape Town: Institution of Economic Research and Innovation (IERI)
Onikoyi, I. A., Awolusi, O.D. and Boyede, M.A. (2014), "Effect of Absenteeism on corporate performance: a case study of Cadbury Nigeria plc., Ikeja, Lagos State, Nigeria", British Journal of Marketing Studies, 3(2), 58–71
Oseni,I.O and Enilolobo, O.S.(2011).Effect of foreign direct investment and stock market development on economic growth in Uganda(1980-2009).European Journal of Business and Management. 3(12), 235-245
Oura, M.M. (2016), “Innovation capacity, international experience, and export performance of SMEs in Brazil”, International Business Review, 25(4), 921-932
Rehman FU and Khan D (2015) The determinants of food price inflation in Pakistan: An econometric analysis. Advances in Economics and Business. 3(12), 571- 576
Safari, A. and Saleh, A.S. (2020), "Key determinants of SMEs’ export performance: a resource-based view and contingency theory approach using potential mediators", Journal of Business & Industrial Marketing, 35(4), 635-654
Stoian, M.C., Rialp, A. and Rialp, J. (2011), “Export performance under the microscope: a glance through Spanish lenses”, International Business Review, 20(2), 117-135.
UBOS (2021). Monthly merchandise trade statistics bulletin
Ugochukwu, U. S., Okore, A. O. andOnoh, J. O.(2013).the impact of foreign direct investment on the Ugandan economy. European journal of business and management. 5(2), 253-259
UNCTAD (1998). “Trends and determinants”, World Investment Report.
UNCTAD (1999). ‘‘Foreign Direct Investment and the challenge of Development’’, World Investment Report.
UNCTAD (2000). ‘‘Cross-border Mergers and Acquisitions and Development’’ World Investment Report, Investment Report.
UNCTAD (2002).‘‘Transnational Corporations and Export Competitiveness’’, World Investment Report.
Wang, Z., Q., and Swain, N., J. (1995), “The Determinants of Foreign Direct Investment in transforming economies: Evidence from Hungary and China”, WeltwirtschaftlichesArchiv, 131(1), 359-82
Wheeler, D., and Mody, A. (1992), “International Investment Location Decision: The case of US Firms”, Journal of International Economics, 33(1), 57-76
WTO (1995). Trade Policy Review: Uganda 1995, Volumes I and II, Geneva: World Trade Organisation.
Yan Ga, Brouthers, L., and Mcnicol (2008), “Corruption and market attractiveness influences on different types of FDI”, Strategic management journal, 29(1), 673-680
Zakia,MandZiad,A.(2007).the impact of foreign direct investment and imports on economic growth: the case of Jordan, Journal of Economic and Administrative Sciences, 23(1), 1-31
Zhang (2001). ‘‘Does Foreign Direct Investment Promote Economic Growth? Evidence from East Asia and Latin America’’, Contemporary Economic Policy, 19 (2),175- 185
Zahonongo, P. (2020). Trade and Economic Growth in Developing Countries: Evidence from Sub-saharan Africa.” Journal of African Trade, 34(1), 12-26
Published
2023-11-19
How to Cite
Awolusi, O. D., & Osman, A. M. (2023). Determinants of Export Performance in Uganda (1989-2020). Journal of Economics and Behavioral Studies, 15(3(J), 34-54. https://doi.org/10.22610/jebs.v15i3(J).3330
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Research Paper
Copyright (c) 2023 Olawumi Dele Awolusi, Abdihakim Mohamed Osman
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