The Effect of Climate Change on Agricultural Crop Returns in Uganda

  • Geoffrey Norman Tumwine 1Department of Economics, University of Dar es Salaam, Dar es Salaam
  • Razack B Lokina Department of Economics, University of Dar es Salaam, Dar es Salaam,
  • John Mary Matovu Reseach for Transformation and Development, Kampala, Uganda
Keywords: Climate change, agriculture, crop returns, Ricardian model and panel Tobit model.


The study examined the effect of climate change on agricultural crop returns in Uganda using the Ricardian Panel Tobit technique and the World Bank Living Standards Measurement Survey (LSMS) data, climate data from Uganda National Meteorological Authority (UNMA) and global weather data. The findings showed that climate related risks account for over 67 percent of agricultural risks and less than 2 percent of the farming households practise irrigation. Farmers that practised irrigation earned higher agricultural returns nationally than their counterparts did. The findings show that the output elasticities with respect to temperature range from -2.02 percent to 0.543 percent. This implies that for the average temperature increase by 1 percent, maize farm returns decreased by 2.02 percent, banana by 1.7 percent, cassava by 1.50 percent and beans by 1.01 percent. While 1 percent increases in rainfall, lowered banana returns by 0.02 percent, beans by 0.08 percent, cassava by 0.035 percent, maize by 0.025 percent except for groundnuts’ returns increased by 0.115 percent. Apart from climate factors, non-climate factors such as capital, labour, farm size, fertilizers and soil quality are equally important inputs and significantly impact on agricultural farm returns. The study proposes that due to unrelenting adverse climate change effects in Uganda, adoption of multi-pronged approaches such as extensive irrigation, agro-insurance, diversification of agricultural activities, use of food cribs during bumper harvests would be the breath of life for Ugandan farmers.


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How to Cite
Geoffrey Norman Tumwine, Razack B Lokina, & John Mary Matovu. (2019). The Effect of Climate Change on Agricultural Crop Returns in Uganda. Journal of Economics and Behavioral Studies, 11(4(J), 71-87.
Research Paper