Cash Flow Volatility and Firm Investment Behaviour: Evidence from African Listed Firms
Keywords:
Cash flow Volatility, Investment, Generalised Method of Moments, Africa
Abstract
This study explored the association between cash flow variability and investment behaviour of African listed firms. The research employed a dynamic panel data model estimated with the difference and system Generalised Method of Moments estimation techniques on a panel of 815 listed African non-financial firms. The estimation techniques control for unobserved heterogeneity, endogeneity, autocorrelation, heteroscedasticity and dynamic panel bias. Two different measures of volatility were employed; the exponentially weighted moving average, a forward-looking measure that captures innovations in cash flow volatilities and the coefficient of variation that captures the mechanical effect of the possible relation between cash flow levels and volatility. The results obtained suggested that cash-flow volatility is associated with average lower investment in African firms. These findings show that not only cash flows are an important determinant of investment decisions, but the variability of the cash flows also has a significant bearing on the investment levels of African firms. Cash flow volatility has a significant negative impact on investment even for firms with higher cash flows and unconstrained firms. African firms should not only aim at achieving higher cash flows, but the stability of the cash flows is equally important to sustain solid investment levels.
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References
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Anderson, T. W. & Hsiao, C. (1982). Formulation and estimation of dynamic models using panel data. Journal of Econometrics, 18(1), 47-82.
Antoniou, A., Guney, Y. & Paudyal, K. (2008). The determinants of capital structure: capital market-oriented versus bank-oriented institutions. Journal of financial and quantitative analysis, 43(01), 59-92.
Arellano, M. & Bond, S. (1991). Some tests of specification for panel data: Monte Carlo evidence and an application to employment equations. The review of economic studies, 58(2), 277-297.
Bates, T. W. (2005). Asset sales, investment opportunities, and the use of proceeds. The Journal of Finance, 60(1), 105-135.
Baum, C. F., Barkoulas, J. T. & Caglayan, M. (2001). Nonlinear adjustment to purchasing power parity in the post-Bretton Woods era. Journal of International Money and Finance, 20(3), 379-399.
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Bloom, N., Bond, S. & Van Reenen, J. (2007). Uncertainty and investment dynamics. The review of economic studies, 74(2), 391-415.
Blundell, R. & Bond, S. (1998). Initial conditions and moment restrictions in dynamic panel data models. Journal of Econometrics, 87(1), 115-143.
Booth, L., Aivazian, V., Demirgucâ€Kunt, A. & Maksimovic, V. (2001). Capital structures in developing countries. The Journal of Finance, 56(1), 87-130.
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Calcagnini, G. & Saltari, E. (2000). Real and financial uncertainty and investment decisions. Journal of Macroeconomics, 22(3), 491-514.
Campa, J. & Goldberg, L. S. (1995). Investment in manufacturing, exchange rates and external exposure. Journal of International Economics, 38(3), 297-320.
Carpenter, R. E., Fazzari, S. M. & Petersen, B. C. (1998). Financing constraints and inventory investment: A comparative study with high-frequency panel data. Review of Economics and statistics, 80(4), 513-519.
Carpenter, R. E. & Guariglia, A. (2008). Cash flow, investment, and investment opportunities: New tests using UK panel data. Journal of Banking & Finance, 32(9), 1894-1906.
Chikan, A., Kovacs, E. & Tátrai, T. (2005). Macroeconomic characteristics and inventory investment: a multi-country study. International Journal of Production Economics, 93, 61-73.
Cleary, S. (2006). International corporate investment and the relationships between financial constraint measures. Journal of Banking & Finance, 30(5), 1559-1580.
da Costa Moraes, M. B., Nagano, M. S. & Sobreiro, V. A. (2015). Stochastic cash flow management models: A literature review since the 1980s. In Decision models in engineering and management (pp. 11-28): Springer.
Darby, J., Hallett, A. H., Ireland, J. & Piscitelli, L. (1999). The impact of exchange rate uncertainty on the level of investment. The Economic Journal, 109(454), 55-67.
DeAngelo, H., DeAngelo, L. & Stulz, R. (2004). Dividend policy, agency costs, and earned equity. Retrieved from
Donaldson, G. (1963). Financial goals: Management vs. stockholders. Harvard Business Review, 41(3), 116-129.
Driver, C. & Moreton, D. (1991). The influence of uncertainty on UK manufacturing investment. The Economic Journal, 101(409), 1452-1459.
Edmiston, K. D. (2004). Tax Uncertainty and Investment: A Crossâ€Country Empirical Examination. Economic Inquiry, 42(3), 425-440.
Fazzari, S., Ferri, P. & Greenberg, E. (2008). Cash flow, investment, and Keynes–Minsky cycles. Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, 65(3-4), 555-572.
Fazzari, S. M., Hubbard, R. G., Petersen, B. C., Blinder, A. S. & Poterba, J. M. (1988). Financing constraints and corporate investment. Brookings papers on economic activity, 1988(1), 141-206.
Ferderer, J. P. (1993). The impact of uncertainty on aggregate investment spending: an empirical analysis. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 25(1), 30-48.
Ferreira, M. A. & Vilela, A. S. (2004). Why do firms hold cash? Evidence from EMU countries. European Financial Management, 10(2), 295-319.
Froot, K. A., Scharfstein, D. S. & Stein, J. C. (1993). Risk management: Coordinating corporate investment and financing policies. The Journal of Finance, 48(5), 1629-1658.
Geczy, C., Minton, B. & Schrand, C. (1997). Why rms use currency derivatives?," forthcoming in Journal of Finance.
Géczy, C., Minton, B. A. & Schrand, C. (1997). Why firms use currency derivatives. The Journal of Finance, 52(4), 1323-1354.
Ghosal, V. & Loungani, P. (2000). The differential impact of uncertainty on investment in small and large businesses. Review of Economics and statistics, 82(2), 338-343.
Gilchrist, S. & Himmelberg, C. P. (1995). Evidence on the role of cash flow for investment. Journal of Monetary Economics, 36(3), 541-572.
Goldberg, L. S. (1993). Exchange rates and investment in United States industry. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 575-588.
Guiso, L. & Parigi, G. (1999). Investment and demand uncertainty. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 114(1), 185-227.
Guo, H. (2012). Estimating Volatilities by the GARCH and the EWMA model of PetroChina and TCL in the Stock Exchange Market of China. Paper presented at the 6th International Scientific Conference Managing and Modelling of Financial Risks, VSB-TU Ostrava, Faculty of Economics, Finance Department.(September).
Guoming, A., H. (2009). The cross-section of cashflow volatility and expected stock returns. Journal of Empirical Finance, 16(2009), 409-429.
Gwatidzo, T. & Ojah, K. (2009). Corporate capital structure determinants: evidence for five African countries. African Finance Journal, 11(1), 1-23.
Hurn, A. S. & Wright, R. E. (1994). Geology or economics? Testing models of irreversible investment using North Sea oil data. The Economic Journal, 363-371.
Jensen, M. C. (1986). Agency costs of free cash flow, corporate finance, and takeovers. The American economic review, 76(2), 323-329.
Judson, R. A. & Owen, A. L. (1999). Estimating dynamic panel data models: a guide for macroeconomists. Economics Letters, 65(1), 9-15.
Kester, W. C. (1984). Turning growth options into real assets: Division of Research, Graduate School of Business Administration, Harvard University.
Kovacs, G. (2005). Financing local investments by issuing mu− nicipal bonds. Atalakulasi folyamatok KozepYEuropaban. u: szechenyi Istvan Egyetem Multidiszciplinaris Tarsadalomtudomanyi Doktori Iskola, Gyor, 107-113. Lang, L., Ofek, E. & Stulz, R., (1996). Leverage, investment, and firm growth. Journal of Financial Economics, 40(1), 3-29.
Leahy, J. V. & Whited, T. M. (1995). The effect of uncertainty on investment: Some stylized facts. Retrieved from
Lessard, D. R. & Lightstone, J. B. (1990). Management of operating exposure. A. Boris (Ed.), Management of Currency Risk, Euromoney Publications, London, 89-96.
Mark, J. F. & Hankins, W., K. (2012). Estimating dynamic panel models in corporatefinance. Journal of Corporate finance Elsevier, 19(2013), 1-19.
Minton, B., A. & Schrand, C. (1999). The impact of cash flow volatility on discretionary investment and the costs of debt and equity financing. ELSEVIER.
Minton, B. A. & Schrand, C. (1999). The impact of cash flow volatility on discretionary investment and the costs of debt and equity financing. Journal of Financial Economics, 54(3), 423-460.
Modigliani, F. & Miller, M. H. (1958). The cost of capital, corporation finance, and the theory of investment. American Economic Review, 53(3), 433–443
Monga, C. & Lin, J. Y. (2015). The Oxford Handbook of Africa and Economics: Volume 1: Context and Concepts: OUP Oxford.
Muñoz, F. (2013). Liquidity and firm investment: Evidence for Latin America. Journal of Empirical Finance, 20, 18-29.
Myers, S. C. & Majluf, N. S. (1984). Corporate financing and investment decisions when firms have information that investors do not have. Journal of financial economics, 13(2), 187-221.
Opler, T., Pinkowitz, L., Stulz, R. & Williamson, R. (1999). The determinants and implications of corporate cash holdings. Journal of financial economics, 52(1), 3-46.
Riddick, L. A. & Whited, T. M. (2009). The corporate propensity to save. The Journal of Finance, 64(4), 1729-1766.
Roodman, D. (2006). How to do xtabond2: An introduction to difference and system GMM in Stata. Center for Global Development working paper, (103).
Servén, L. (2003). Real-exchange-rate uncertainty and private investment in LDCs. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 85(1), 212-218.
Shapiro, A. & Titman, S. (1986). An integrated approach to corporate risk management. In: . Basil Blackwell,NewYork.
Shapiro, A. C. & Titman, S. (1986). An integrated approach to corporate risk management. The revolution in corporate finance, 3, 251-265.
Söderbom, M., Teal, F. & Wambugu, A. (2005). Unobserved heterogeneity and the relation between earnings and firm size: evidence from two developing countries. Economics Letters, 87(2), 153-159.
Tufano, P. (1996). Who manages risk? An empirical examination of risk management practices in the gold mining industry. The Journal of Finance, 51(4), 1097-1137. Taylor, J. W. (2004). Volatility forecasting with smooth transition exponential smoothing. International Journal of Forecasting, 20(2), 273-286.
UNCTAD. (2014). World investment report: investing in the SDGs: an action plan.
Yuan, Y. & Motohashi, K. (2014). Impact of leverage on investment by major shareholders: Evidence from listed firms in China. China Economic Journal, 7(3), 299-319. Yun, Li., Moutinho, L., Opong, K. K. & Pang, Y. (2015). Cash flow forecast for South African firms. Review of Development Finance, 5(1), 24-33.
Zamfir, l. (2016). Growth of Africa. Retrieved from European Parliamentary Research Service
Aivazian, V. A., Ge, Y. & Qiu, J. (2005). The impact of leverage on firm investment: Canadian evidence. Journal of Corporate Finance, 11(1), 277-291.
Akhtar, S. (2005). The determinants of capital structure for Australian multinational and domestic corporations. Australian Journal of management, 30(2), 321-341.
Akhtar, S. & Oliver, B. (2009). Determinants of capital structure for Japanese multinational and domestic corporations. International review of finance, 9(1â€2), 1-26.
Alfaro, L., Chanda, A., Kalemli-Ozcan, S. & Sayek, S. (2004). FDI and economic growth: the role of local financial markets. Journal of International Economics, 64(1), 89-112.
Allayannis, G. & Weston, J. P. (2003). Earnings volatility, cashflow volatility, and rm value.
Almeida, H., Campello, M. & Weisbach, M. S. (2004). The cash flow sensitivity of cash. The Journal of Finance, 59(4), 1777-1804.
Amo Yartey, C. (2011). Small business finance in Sub-Saharan Africa: the case of Ghana. Management Research Review, 34(2), 172-185.
Anderson, T. W. & Hsiao, C. (1982). Formulation and estimation of dynamic models using panel data. Journal of Econometrics, 18(1), 47-82.
Antoniou, A., Guney, Y. & Paudyal, K. (2008). The determinants of capital structure: capital market-oriented versus bank-oriented institutions. Journal of financial and quantitative analysis, 43(01), 59-92.
Arellano, M. & Bond, S. (1991). Some tests of specification for panel data: Monte Carlo evidence and an application to employment equations. The review of economic studies, 58(2), 277-297.
Bates, T. W. (2005). Asset sales, investment opportunities, and the use of proceeds. The Journal of Finance, 60(1), 105-135.
Baum, C. F., Barkoulas, J. T. & Caglayan, M. (2001). Nonlinear adjustment to purchasing power parity in the post-Bretton Woods era. Journal of International Money and Finance, 20(3), 379-399.
Baum, C. F., Caglayan, M. & Talavera, O. (2009). On the sensitivity of firms' investment to cash flow and uncertainty. Oxford Economic Papers, 62(2), 286-306.
Bigsten, A. & Söderbom, M. (2006). What have we learned from a decade of manufacturing enterprise surveys in Africa? The World Bank Research Observer, 21(2), 241-265.
Bloom, N., Bond, S. & Van Reenen, J. (2007). Uncertainty and investment dynamics. The review of economic studies, 74(2), 391-415.
Blundell, R. & Bond, S. (1998). Initial conditions and moment restrictions in dynamic panel data models. Journal of Econometrics, 87(1), 115-143.
Booth, L., Aivazian, V., Demirgucâ€Kunt, A. & Maksimovic, V. (2001). Capital structures in developing countries. The Journal of Finance, 56(1), 87-130.
Booth, L. & Cleary, S. (2006). Cash flow volatility, financial slack, and investment decisions. Paper presented at the EFMA 2006 Madrid Meetings Paper.
Calcagnini, G. & Saltari, E. (2000). Real and financial uncertainty and investment decisions. Journal of Macroeconomics, 22(3), 491-514.
Campa, J. & Goldberg, L. S. (1995). Investment in manufacturing, exchange rates and external exposure. Journal of International Economics, 38(3), 297-320.
Carpenter, R. E., Fazzari, S. M. & Petersen, B. C. (1998). Financing constraints and inventory investment: A comparative study with high-frequency panel data. Review of Economics and statistics, 80(4), 513-519.
Carpenter, R. E. & Guariglia, A. (2008). Cash flow, investment, and investment opportunities: New tests using UK panel data. Journal of Banking & Finance, 32(9), 1894-1906.
Chikan, A., Kovacs, E. & Tátrai, T. (2005). Macroeconomic characteristics and inventory investment: a multi-country study. International Journal of Production Economics, 93, 61-73.
Cleary, S. (2006). International corporate investment and the relationships between financial constraint measures. Journal of Banking & Finance, 30(5), 1559-1580.
da Costa Moraes, M. B., Nagano, M. S. & Sobreiro, V. A. (2015). Stochastic cash flow management models: A literature review since the 1980s. In Decision models in engineering and management (pp. 11-28): Springer.
Darby, J., Hallett, A. H., Ireland, J. & Piscitelli, L. (1999). The impact of exchange rate uncertainty on the level of investment. The Economic Journal, 109(454), 55-67.
DeAngelo, H., DeAngelo, L. & Stulz, R. (2004). Dividend policy, agency costs, and earned equity. Retrieved from
Donaldson, G. (1963). Financial goals: Management vs. stockholders. Harvard Business Review, 41(3), 116-129.
Driver, C. & Moreton, D. (1991). The influence of uncertainty on UK manufacturing investment. The Economic Journal, 101(409), 1452-1459.
Edmiston, K. D. (2004). Tax Uncertainty and Investment: A Crossâ€Country Empirical Examination. Economic Inquiry, 42(3), 425-440.
Fazzari, S., Ferri, P. & Greenberg, E. (2008). Cash flow, investment, and Keynes–Minsky cycles. Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, 65(3-4), 555-572.
Fazzari, S. M., Hubbard, R. G., Petersen, B. C., Blinder, A. S. & Poterba, J. M. (1988). Financing constraints and corporate investment. Brookings papers on economic activity, 1988(1), 141-206.
Ferderer, J. P. (1993). The impact of uncertainty on aggregate investment spending: an empirical analysis. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 25(1), 30-48.
Ferreira, M. A. & Vilela, A. S. (2004). Why do firms hold cash? Evidence from EMU countries. European Financial Management, 10(2), 295-319.
Froot, K. A., Scharfstein, D. S. & Stein, J. C. (1993). Risk management: Coordinating corporate investment and financing policies. The Journal of Finance, 48(5), 1629-1658.
Geczy, C., Minton, B. & Schrand, C. (1997). Why rms use currency derivatives?," forthcoming in Journal of Finance.
Géczy, C., Minton, B. A. & Schrand, C. (1997). Why firms use currency derivatives. The Journal of Finance, 52(4), 1323-1354.
Ghosal, V. & Loungani, P. (2000). The differential impact of uncertainty on investment in small and large businesses. Review of Economics and statistics, 82(2), 338-343.
Gilchrist, S. & Himmelberg, C. P. (1995). Evidence on the role of cash flow for investment. Journal of Monetary Economics, 36(3), 541-572.
Goldberg, L. S. (1993). Exchange rates and investment in United States industry. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 575-588.
Guiso, L. & Parigi, G. (1999). Investment and demand uncertainty. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 114(1), 185-227.
Guo, H. (2012). Estimating Volatilities by the GARCH and the EWMA model of PetroChina and TCL in the Stock Exchange Market of China. Paper presented at the 6th International Scientific Conference Managing and Modelling of Financial Risks, VSB-TU Ostrava, Faculty of Economics, Finance Department.(September).
Guoming, A., H. (2009). The cross-section of cashflow volatility and expected stock returns. Journal of Empirical Finance, 16(2009), 409-429.
Gwatidzo, T. & Ojah, K. (2009). Corporate capital structure determinants: evidence for five African countries. African Finance Journal, 11(1), 1-23.
Hurn, A. S. & Wright, R. E. (1994). Geology or economics? Testing models of irreversible investment using North Sea oil data. The Economic Journal, 363-371.
Jensen, M. C. (1986). Agency costs of free cash flow, corporate finance, and takeovers. The American economic review, 76(2), 323-329.
Judson, R. A. & Owen, A. L. (1999). Estimating dynamic panel data models: a guide for macroeconomists. Economics Letters, 65(1), 9-15.
Kester, W. C. (1984). Turning growth options into real assets: Division of Research, Graduate School of Business Administration, Harvard University.
Kovacs, G. (2005). Financing local investments by issuing mu− nicipal bonds. Atalakulasi folyamatok KozepYEuropaban. u: szechenyi Istvan Egyetem Multidiszciplinaris Tarsadalomtudomanyi Doktori Iskola, Gyor, 107-113. Lang, L., Ofek, E. & Stulz, R., (1996). Leverage, investment, and firm growth. Journal of Financial Economics, 40(1), 3-29.
Leahy, J. V. & Whited, T. M. (1995). The effect of uncertainty on investment: Some stylized facts. Retrieved from
Lessard, D. R. & Lightstone, J. B. (1990). Management of operating exposure. A. Boris (Ed.), Management of Currency Risk, Euromoney Publications, London, 89-96.
Mark, J. F. & Hankins, W., K. (2012). Estimating dynamic panel models in corporatefinance. Journal of Corporate finance Elsevier, 19(2013), 1-19.
Minton, B., A. & Schrand, C. (1999). The impact of cash flow volatility on discretionary investment and the costs of debt and equity financing. ELSEVIER.
Minton, B. A. & Schrand, C. (1999). The impact of cash flow volatility on discretionary investment and the costs of debt and equity financing. Journal of Financial Economics, 54(3), 423-460.
Modigliani, F. & Miller, M. H. (1958). The cost of capital, corporation finance, and the theory of investment. American Economic Review, 53(3), 433–443
Monga, C. & Lin, J. Y. (2015). The Oxford Handbook of Africa and Economics: Volume 1: Context and Concepts: OUP Oxford.
Muñoz, F. (2013). Liquidity and firm investment: Evidence for Latin America. Journal of Empirical Finance, 20, 18-29.
Myers, S. C. & Majluf, N. S. (1984). Corporate financing and investment decisions when firms have information that investors do not have. Journal of financial economics, 13(2), 187-221.
Opler, T., Pinkowitz, L., Stulz, R. & Williamson, R. (1999). The determinants and implications of corporate cash holdings. Journal of financial economics, 52(1), 3-46.
Riddick, L. A. & Whited, T. M. (2009). The corporate propensity to save. The Journal of Finance, 64(4), 1729-1766.
Roodman, D. (2006). How to do xtabond2: An introduction to difference and system GMM in Stata. Center for Global Development working paper, (103).
Servén, L. (2003). Real-exchange-rate uncertainty and private investment in LDCs. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 85(1), 212-218.
Shapiro, A. & Titman, S. (1986). An integrated approach to corporate risk management. In: . Basil Blackwell,NewYork.
Shapiro, A. C. & Titman, S. (1986). An integrated approach to corporate risk management. The revolution in corporate finance, 3, 251-265.
Söderbom, M., Teal, F. & Wambugu, A. (2005). Unobserved heterogeneity and the relation between earnings and firm size: evidence from two developing countries. Economics Letters, 87(2), 153-159.
Tufano, P. (1996). Who manages risk? An empirical examination of risk management practices in the gold mining industry. The Journal of Finance, 51(4), 1097-1137. Taylor, J. W. (2004). Volatility forecasting with smooth transition exponential smoothing. International Journal of Forecasting, 20(2), 273-286.
UNCTAD. (2014). World investment report: investing in the SDGs: an action plan.
Yuan, Y. & Motohashi, K. (2014). Impact of leverage on investment by major shareholders: Evidence from listed firms in China. China Economic Journal, 7(3), 299-319. Yun, Li., Moutinho, L., Opong, K. K. & Pang, Y. (2015). Cash flow forecast for South African firms. Review of Development Finance, 5(1), 24-33.
Zamfir, l. (2016). Growth of Africa. Retrieved from European Parliamentary Research Service
Published
2018-12-22
How to Cite
Vengesai, E., & Kwenda, F. (2018). Cash Flow Volatility and Firm Investment Behaviour: Evidence from African Listed Firms. Journal of Economics and Behavioral Studies, 10(6(J), 129-149. https://doi.org/10.22610/jebs.v10i6(J).2604
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Research Paper
Copyright (c) 2018 Edson Vengesai, Farai Kwenda
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