Comparative Analysis of Monetary Policy Shocks and Exchange Rate Fluctuations in Nigeria and South Africa

  • Sulaiman L. A. University of Kwazulu-Natal, Durban
  • Lawal N. A. Ekiti State University, Ado-Ekiti
  • Migiro S. O. University of Kwazulu-Natal, Durban
Keywords: Exchange Rate, Monetary Policy, Vector Autoregressive, Nigeria, South Africa

Abstract

The study examined a comparative analysis of monetary policy shocks and exchange rate fluctuations based on evidence from the two largest economies in Africa (Nigeria and South Africa) – from 1985 to 2015. Data were derived from various sources which include the National Bureau of Statistics, the Central Banks reports and the World Bank database. Vector Autoregressive (VAR) Analysis was used as the estimation technique. The results indicated that the foreign interest rate in South Africa had higher variations in the short-run. While in the long-run, foreign interest rate has higher percentage variations to exchange rate. In Nigeria the world oil price has the higher influence on exchange rate both in the short-run and longrun periods. Based on these results, the study then recommended that the monetary authorities and policymakers in both countries encourage external currency inflows into the economy.  

Downloads

Download data is not yet available.

References

Ade, T. O. & Philip, O. A. (2014). Exchange rate fluctuations and microeconomic performance in Sub-Saharan Africa: A dynamic panel co-integration analysis. Asian Economic and Financial Review, 4(11), 1573159. Ajakaiye, O. (2001). Economic development in Nigeria: A review of recent experience: Proceedings of the First Annual Monetary Policy Conference, Central Bank of Nigeria. Alain, K. (2007). Effect of monetary policy shocks to the Philippine economy. A vector auto regressive (VAR) approach. National Convention on Statistics (NCS), EPSA Shangri-la Hotel. Annari, D. W. & Renee, V. D. (2012). Monetary policy and inflation in South Africa: A VECM augmented with foreign variables. ERSA working paper 316 http://ecorsa.org/home/index.php?option=com_doman&gid=download&gid=494Itemid=67. Anyawu, J. C. & Oaikhena, H. E. (1995). Modern macroeconomic theory of appreciation in Nigeria. Onitsha: Joane Educational Publishers Ltd.
Anzuici, A., Marco, J. L. & Patrizio, P. (2013). The impact of monetary policy shocks on commodity prices. International Journal of Central Bank, 9(3), 119-141. Asad, I., Ahmad, N. & Hussain, Z. (2012). Impact of real effective exchange rate on inflation in Pakistan. Asian Economic and Financial Review, 2(8), 983-990. Atsin, S. B. (2010). Firm-level responses to monetary union and exchange rate regime: Evidence from Cote D’ivoire and Ghana. http://www.westminster.ac.uk/research/westminsterresearch Babatunde, W. A. & Olufemi, M. S. (2014). Monetary policy shock and exchange rate volatility in Nigeria. Asian Economic Review, 4(4), 544-562 Simeon-Oke, O. O. & Aribisala, S. E. (2010). Exchange rate Deregulation and Industrial Performance: An Assessment. An International Multi-Disciplinary Journal, 4(2), 236-251. Fatai, M. O. & Akinbobola, T. O. (2015). Exchange rate pass-through to import prices, inflation and monetary policy in Nigeria. International Finance and Banking, 2(1),60-78. Gbosi, A. N. (2002). Financial sector instability and challenges to Nigeria’s monetary authorities. Port Harcourt: African Heritage Publishers. Havva, M. T., Mohammad, R. M. & Teimour, M. (2012). Effect of the Real Effective Exchange Rate Fluctuations on Macro-Economic Indicators. Interdisciplinary Journal of Contemporary Research in Business, 4(6), 1097-1103. Mehmet, I. & Zekeriya, Y. (2013). Monetary policy shocks and macroeconomics variables: Evidence from fast growing emerging economies. Discussion paper No 2013-61. http://www.economicsejournal.org/economics/discusion papers/2013-61 Muhammad, Z. & Eatzaz, A. (2009). Testing the monetary models of exchange rate determination: Some new evidence from modern float. Chulalong korn Journal of Economics, 21(3), 125-145. Ncube, M. & Ndou, E. (2013). Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate Shocks on South African Trade Balance, Working Paper Series N° 169 African Development Bank, Tunis, Tunisia. Nnanna, O. (2001). The monetary policy framework in Africa: The Nigerian experience. Extracted from: www2.resbank.co.za/internet/publication..../Nigeria.pdf, p. 11. Ogunsakin, S. (2011). Intermediate monetary economics. Ado-Ekiti: Jossy Kay Printers. Paul, A. & Muazu, I. (2016). On the causes and effect of exchange rate volatility on economic growth: Evidence from Ghana. International Growth Centre. www.theigc.org Shaw, E. (1973). Financial deepening in economic development. New York: Oxford University Press. Sims, C. A. (1980). Macroeconomics and reality. Econometrica, 48(1), 1-48. South African Reserve Bank. (2016). Monetary policy review. South Africa. www.reservebank,co.za Sulaiman, L. A. (2006). Conceptual issues in monetary and fiscal policies management. Ondo: Adeyemo Publishing House. Zandweghe, V. W. (2015). Monetary policy shocks and aggregate supply. Economic Review, Q III, 1-56.
Published
2018-01-15
How to Cite
A., S. L., A., L. N., & O., M. S. (2018). Comparative Analysis of Monetary Policy Shocks and Exchange Rate Fluctuations in Nigeria and South Africa. Journal of Economics and Behavioral Studies, 9(6(J), 199-207. https://doi.org/10.22610/jebs.v9i6(J).2016
Section
Research Paper