Efficiency of Foreign Exchange Markets in Sub-Saharan Africa in the Presence of Structural Break: A Linear and Non-Linear Testing Approach
Abstract
This study examines the efficiency of foreign exchange (forex) market of 10 selected countries in sub-Saharan Africa in the presence of structural break. It uses data on the average official exchange rate of currencies of the selected countries to the US dollar from November 1995 to October 2015. This study employs Perron unit root test with structural break to endogenously determine the break period in the forex markets. It also employs the Kim wild bootstrap variance ratio test and BDS independence test to detect linear and nonlinear dependence in forex market returns respectively. In the full sample period, the Kim wild bootstrap joint variance ratio test shows that only two forex markets are efficient while the BDS independence test reports that all the forex markets are not efficient. The subsample period analysis indicates that the efficiency of the majority of the forex markets is sensitive to structural break, thus providing evidence in support of the adaptive market hypothesis. This study suggests that ignoring structural break and nonlinearity of returns may lead to misleading results when testing for market efficiency.
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