A Robust Application of the Arbitrage Pricing Theory: Evidence from Nigeria
Keywords:
Equilibrium models, arbitrage pricing theory, capital asset pricing theory, macroeconomic variables
Abstract
Arbitrage pricing theory (APT) is a testable theory based on the idea that in competitive financial markets arbitrage will ensure that riskless assets provide the same expected return. We sought to confirm the relevance of the arbitrage pricing theory in Nigeria. Guided by a good understanding of macroeconomic variables and stock price movements as found in the extant literature on arbitrage pricing theory (APT), we specified our APT equation for estimation. Having satisfied the integration and co-integration issues, we employ the error-correction (ECM) and the fully modified ordinary least squares (FMOLS) methods for the short-run and long-run regressions. Our short-run results seem to agree with existing theories on APT thus confirming that APT is relevant in Nigeria. However, the long-run relationship of stock returns and RGDP was found to be contentious. Even though our result runs contrary to predictions on the relationship between the two, we found peculiar events and circumstances within the Nigerian macroeconomic context that provides logical reasons for the deviation.
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References
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Al-Qenae, R., Li, C. & Wearing, B. (2002). The information content of Earnings on Stock prices: The Kuwait Stock Exchange. Multinational Finance Journal, 6(3), July
Apte, P. (2001). The Interrelationship between Stock Markets and the Foreign Exchange Market. Prajnan, 30, 17-29
Attuallah, A. (2001). Macroeconomic Variables as Common Pervasive Risk Factors and Empirical Content of the Arbitrage Pricing Theory in Pakistan. Lahore Journal of Economics, 6(1), 55-77.
Aziz, M. I. A. & Bakar, A. (2009, August). Oil Price & Exchange Rate: A Comparative Study between Net Oil Exporting and Net Oil Importing Countries. In ESDS International Annual Conference, London.
Aydemir, O. & Demirhan, E. (2009).The Relationship between Stock Returns and Exchange Rates: Evidence from Turkey. International Research Journal of Finance and Economics, 23, 207-215.
Barro, R. (1990). The Stock Market and Investment. Review of Financial Studies, 3, 115-131.
Binswanger, M. (2000). Stock Returns and Real Activity: Is there still a Connection? Applied Financial Economics, 10, 379-387
Black, N. (1972). The Effects of Macroeconomic Factors on Stock Returns: Istanbul Stock Market. Studies in Economics and Finance, 26(1), 36-45.
Brennan, M. S., Wang, A. W. & Xiu, Y. (2004). Estimation and Test of a Sample Model of Inter-temporal Capital Asset Pricing. Journal of Finance, 59, 1743-1775. August
Cagnetti, A. (2009). Capital Asset Pricing Model and Arbitrage Pricing Theory in the Italian Stock Market: An Empirical Study, available at http//:www.era.lib.ed.ac.uk/bitstream/handle/1842/1821, retrieved on 12/12/2015
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Chakaza, R. (2008). The Fiscal and Monetary Linkage between Stock Returns and Inflation in Zimbabwe. The Journal of Finance, 38(1), 1-33.
Chen, A. & Fang, S. (2009). Uniform Testing and Portfolio Strategies for Single and Multi-Factor Asset Pricing Models in the Pacific Basin Markets. Applied Economics, 41(15), 1951-1963
Chen, N. F. (1983). Some Empirical Tests of the Theory of Arbitrage Pricing. Journal of Finance, 38(5), 1393-1414. December
Chen, N. F., Roll, R. & Ross, S. A. (1986). Economic Forces and the Stock Market. Journal of Business, 59, 383-403.
Cochrane, J. H. (2001). Asset pricing, Princeton-New Jersey: Princeton University Press
Conor, G. (1995). The Three Types of Factor Models: A Comparison of their Explanatory Power. Financial Analyst Journal, 15, 42-46
Davis, J. L., Fama, E. F. & French, K. R. (2000). Characteristics, Covariances and Average Returns: 1929 to 1997. Journal of Finance, 55(1), 389-406
DeFusco, R. A., McLeavey, D. W., Pinto, J. E. & Runkle, D. E. (2004). Quantitative Methods for Investment Analysis (2nd edition), Charlottesville: CFA Institute
Demirguc-Kunt, A. & Levine, R. (1996) Stock Markets, Corporate Finance and Economic Growth: An Overview. The World Bank Economic Review, 10(2), 223–239
Diacogiannis, G. P. (1986). Arbitrage Pricing Model: A Critical Examination of its empirical Applicability for the London Stock Exchange. Journal of Business Finance and Accounting, 12, 489-504
Dornbusch, R. & Fisher, S. (1980). Exchange Rates and the Current Account. AER, 70(5), 960-971.
Fama, E. F. (1965). Random Walks in Stock Market Prices. Financial Analysts Journal, 5, 135-150
Fama, E. F. (1981). Stock Returns, Real Activity, Inflation, and Money. American Economic Review, 71, 545-65.
Fama, E. F. (1990). Stock Returns, Expected Returns, and Real Activity. Journal of Finance, 45, 1089-180.
Fama, E. & French, K. (1992). The Cross-Section of Expected Stock Returns. Journal of Finance, 47, 427-465.
Fama, E. & French, K. (1996). Multifactor Explanations of Asset Pricing Anomalies. Journal of Finance, 51, 55-84.
Fama, E. & French, K. (1997). Industry Costs of Equity. Journal of Financial Economics, 43, 153-93.
Ferraro, D., Rogoff, K. & Rossi, B. (2015). Can oil prices forecast exchange rates? An empirical analysis of the relationship between commodity prices and exchange rates. Journal of International Money and Finance, 54, 116-141.
Goetzmann, W. N. & Ibbotson, I. (2006). The Equity Risk Premium: Essays and Exploration, Oxford Yale: Oxford University Press
Harding, M. (2007) Explaining the Single factor bias of Arbitrage Pricing Models in Finite Samples. Economic letters, 99(1), 85-88
Harris, R. D. F. (1997). Stock Markets and Development: A Re-Assessment. Journal of European Economic Review, 41, 139-46
Harri, A., Nalley, L. & Hudson, D. (2009). The Relationship between Oil, Exchange Rates and Commodity Prices. Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, 41(2), 501-510, August
Hussain, F. & Uppal, J. (1998). Distribution of Stock Returns in an Emerging Market: The Pakistani Market. Pakistan Economic and Social Review, 36(1), 47-72.
Ibrahim, M. H. & Aziz, H. (2003). Macroeconomic Variables and the Malaysian Equity Market. Journal of Economic Studies, 30, 6-27
Isemila, P. A. & Erah, D. O. (2012). Share Prices and Macroeconomic Factors: A Test of the Arbitrage Pricing Theory in the Nigerian Stock Market. European Journal of Business and Management, 4(15), 66-76
Izedonmi, F. & Abdullahi, B. (2011). The Effects of Macroeconomic Factors on the Nigerian Stock Returns: A Sectorial Approach. Global Journal of Management and Business Research, 11(7), 24-30
Jecheche, P. (2012). An Empirical Investigation of Arbitrage Pricing Theory: A Case of Zimbabwe. Research in Business and Economics Journal, 6(1).
Jewczyn, N. (2014). Theory and Portfolios: An Economic History of MPT and APT, International Journal of Economics & Social Sciences, 3(2).
Kaul, G. (1987). Stock Returns and Inflation: The Role of the Monetary Sector. Journal of Financial Economics, 18, 253-276
Khilji, N. M. (1993). The Behaviour of Stock Return in an Emerging Market: A Case Study of Pakistan. Pakistan Development Review, 32(4), 593-604.
Khilji, N. M. (1994). Non-linear Dynamics and Chaos: Application to Financial Market in Pakistan. Pakistan Development Review, 3(4), 1417-1429.
Kutty, G. (2010). The Relationship between Exchange Rates and Stock Prices: The Case of Mexico. North American Journal of Finance and Banking Research, 4(4), 1-20
Kuwormu, J. K. A. & Onwusu-Nantwi, V. (2011). Macroeconomic Variables and Stock Market Returns: Full Information Maximum Likelihood Estimation. Research Journal of Finance and Accounting, 2(4), 49-63
Loflund, I. (1992). Arbitrage Pricing Theory in a Small Open Economy: Empirical Evidence from the Swedish Stock Market. For skningsrapport, Svenska Handelshogskolan, Helsingborg
MacKinlay, A. C. (1995). Multi-factor Models do not explain Deviations from the CAPM. Journal of Financial Economics, 38, 3-28
Martikainen, T., Yli-Olli, P. & Gunasekaran, A. (1991). Incremental Significance of Pre-specified Macroeconomic Factors in Testing the Arbitrage Pricing Theory: Empirical Evidence with Finnish Data. Applied Financial Economics, 1, 139-147
Masood, S. & Sarwar, S. (2015). Relationship between Stock Prices and Exchange Rates: A Bivariate and Multivariate Analysis from Pakistan’s Economy. International Affairs and Global Strategy, 32, 1-20
Nishat, M. & Shaheen, R. (2004). Macroeconomic Factors and Pakistani Equity Market. The Pakistan Development Review, 43(4), 619-637
Nyong, M. O. (1996). Capital Market Development and Long-Run Economic Growth: Theory, Evidence and Policy Proposal for another Development Strategy, In J.E.U. Ndebbio & U.Essia (Eds.), Nigeria and Development Strategy,129-155, Calabar: But-Bass Educational Book
Obamiro, J. K. (2005). Nigerian Economy: Growth and the Role of Stock Market. Journal of Economic and Financial Studies, 2(2)
Ogboi, C. & Oladipo, S. O. (2012). Stock Market and Economic Growth: The Nigerian Experience. Research Journal of Finance and Accounting, 3(4), 103-110
Ogun, T. P. & Iyoha, F. O. (2005). The Nigerian Stock Market and the Future Economic Activity: Does Deregulation of the Financial Market makes any Difference? Union Digest, 9(1&2), 31-47
Ogunkola, E. & Abubakar, T. (2008). Monetary Policy Transmission Mechanism in SierraLeone: A Vector Error Correction Approach, Ibadan: CEAR
Osinubi, T. S. & Amaghionyediowe, L. A. (2003). Stock Market Development and Long-Run Growth in Nigeria. Journal of African Business, 4(3), 103-129
Ostermark, U. (1989). Arbitrage Pricing Models for two Scandinavian Stock Markets. Omega International Journal of Management Science, 20(4), 46-67
Phillips, P. C. B. (1995). Fully Modified Least Squares and Vector Autoregression, Econometrica, 63(5), 1023-1078, September
Phillips, P. & Hansen, B. (1990). Statistical Inference in Instrumental Variables Regression with I (1) Processes, Review of Economic Studies, 57, 99-125
Reilly, F. K. & Brown, K. C. (2003). Investment Analysis and Portfolio Management, Ohio, USA: Thomson South-Western
Roll, R. & Ross, S. A. (1980). An empirical investigation of the Arbitrage Pricing Theory. Journal of Finance, 35, 1073-1103
Rosenberg, B. (1981). The Capital Asset Pricing model and the Market model. Journal of Portfolio Management, 7(2), 5-16. Winter
Ross, S. A. (1976). The Arbitrage Pricing Theory of Capital Asset Pricing. Journal of Economic Theory, 13, 341- 360
Schulmerich, M. (2012a). The Efficient Frontier on Modern Portfolio Theory: Weaknesses and how to overcome them, In Investments and Wealth monitor, 27-32, Greenwood Village: IMCA
Schulmerich, M., Leporcher, Y. M. & Eu, C. H. (2015). Modern Portfolio Theory and Its Problems. In Applied Asset and Risk Management, Springer Berlin Heidelberg, 101-173
Singh, T., Mehta, S. & Varsha, M. S. (2011).Macroeconomic Factors and Stock Returns: Evidence from Taiwan. Journal of Economics and International Finance, 2(4), 210-217, April
Stulz, R. M. (1986). Asset Pricing and Expected Inflation. Journal of Finance, 41, 209-223.
Uanguta, E. & Ikhide, S. (2002). Monetary Policy Transmission Mechanism in Namibia, Bank of Namibia (BON). Working Paper, No 2/02
Yli-Olli, P., Virtanen I. & Martikainen, T. (1990). Common Factors in the Arbitrage Pricing Model in Two Scandinavian Countries. OMEGA International Journal of Management Science, 18, 615-624.
Zubair, A. (2013). Causal Relationship between Stock Market Index and Exchange Rate: Evidence from Nigeria. CBN Journal of Applied Statistics, 4(2), 87-110
Al-Qenae, R., Li, C. & Wearing, B. (2002). The information content of Earnings on Stock prices: The Kuwait Stock Exchange. Multinational Finance Journal, 6(3), July
Apte, P. (2001). The Interrelationship between Stock Markets and the Foreign Exchange Market. Prajnan, 30, 17-29
Attuallah, A. (2001). Macroeconomic Variables as Common Pervasive Risk Factors and Empirical Content of the Arbitrage Pricing Theory in Pakistan. Lahore Journal of Economics, 6(1), 55-77.
Aziz, M. I. A. & Bakar, A. (2009, August). Oil Price & Exchange Rate: A Comparative Study between Net Oil Exporting and Net Oil Importing Countries. In ESDS International Annual Conference, London.
Aydemir, O. & Demirhan, E. (2009).The Relationship between Stock Returns and Exchange Rates: Evidence from Turkey. International Research Journal of Finance and Economics, 23, 207-215.
Barro, R. (1990). The Stock Market and Investment. Review of Financial Studies, 3, 115-131.
Binswanger, M. (2000). Stock Returns and Real Activity: Is there still a Connection? Applied Financial Economics, 10, 379-387
Black, N. (1972). The Effects of Macroeconomic Factors on Stock Returns: Istanbul Stock Market. Studies in Economics and Finance, 26(1), 36-45.
Brennan, M. S., Wang, A. W. & Xiu, Y. (2004). Estimation and Test of a Sample Model of Inter-temporal Capital Asset Pricing. Journal of Finance, 59, 1743-1775. August
Cagnetti, A. (2009). Capital Asset Pricing Model and Arbitrage Pricing Theory in the Italian Stock Market: An Empirical Study, available at http//:www.era.lib.ed.ac.uk/bitstream/handle/1842/1821, retrieved on 12/12/2015
Campbell, J. Y., Lo, A. W. & MacKinlay, C. A. (1997). The Econometrics of Financial Markets (revised edition), Princeton - New Jersey: Princeton University Press
Chakaza, R. (2008). The Fiscal and Monetary Linkage between Stock Returns and Inflation in Zimbabwe. The Journal of Finance, 38(1), 1-33.
Chen, A. & Fang, S. (2009). Uniform Testing and Portfolio Strategies for Single and Multi-Factor Asset Pricing Models in the Pacific Basin Markets. Applied Economics, 41(15), 1951-1963
Chen, N. F. (1983). Some Empirical Tests of the Theory of Arbitrage Pricing. Journal of Finance, 38(5), 1393-1414. December
Chen, N. F., Roll, R. & Ross, S. A. (1986). Economic Forces and the Stock Market. Journal of Business, 59, 383-403.
Cochrane, J. H. (2001). Asset pricing, Princeton-New Jersey: Princeton University Press
Conor, G. (1995). The Three Types of Factor Models: A Comparison of their Explanatory Power. Financial Analyst Journal, 15, 42-46
Davis, J. L., Fama, E. F. & French, K. R. (2000). Characteristics, Covariances and Average Returns: 1929 to 1997. Journal of Finance, 55(1), 389-406
DeFusco, R. A., McLeavey, D. W., Pinto, J. E. & Runkle, D. E. (2004). Quantitative Methods for Investment Analysis (2nd edition), Charlottesville: CFA Institute
Demirguc-Kunt, A. & Levine, R. (1996) Stock Markets, Corporate Finance and Economic Growth: An Overview. The World Bank Economic Review, 10(2), 223–239
Diacogiannis, G. P. (1986). Arbitrage Pricing Model: A Critical Examination of its empirical Applicability for the London Stock Exchange. Journal of Business Finance and Accounting, 12, 489-504
Dornbusch, R. & Fisher, S. (1980). Exchange Rates and the Current Account. AER, 70(5), 960-971.
Fama, E. F. (1965). Random Walks in Stock Market Prices. Financial Analysts Journal, 5, 135-150
Fama, E. F. (1981). Stock Returns, Real Activity, Inflation, and Money. American Economic Review, 71, 545-65.
Fama, E. F. (1990). Stock Returns, Expected Returns, and Real Activity. Journal of Finance, 45, 1089-180.
Fama, E. & French, K. (1992). The Cross-Section of Expected Stock Returns. Journal of Finance, 47, 427-465.
Fama, E. & French, K. (1996). Multifactor Explanations of Asset Pricing Anomalies. Journal of Finance, 51, 55-84.
Fama, E. & French, K. (1997). Industry Costs of Equity. Journal of Financial Economics, 43, 153-93.
Ferraro, D., Rogoff, K. & Rossi, B. (2015). Can oil prices forecast exchange rates? An empirical analysis of the relationship between commodity prices and exchange rates. Journal of International Money and Finance, 54, 116-141.
Goetzmann, W. N. & Ibbotson, I. (2006). The Equity Risk Premium: Essays and Exploration, Oxford Yale: Oxford University Press
Harding, M. (2007) Explaining the Single factor bias of Arbitrage Pricing Models in Finite Samples. Economic letters, 99(1), 85-88
Harris, R. D. F. (1997). Stock Markets and Development: A Re-Assessment. Journal of European Economic Review, 41, 139-46
Harri, A., Nalley, L. & Hudson, D. (2009). The Relationship between Oil, Exchange Rates and Commodity Prices. Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, 41(2), 501-510, August
Hussain, F. & Uppal, J. (1998). Distribution of Stock Returns in an Emerging Market: The Pakistani Market. Pakistan Economic and Social Review, 36(1), 47-72.
Ibrahim, M. H. & Aziz, H. (2003). Macroeconomic Variables and the Malaysian Equity Market. Journal of Economic Studies, 30, 6-27
Isemila, P. A. & Erah, D. O. (2012). Share Prices and Macroeconomic Factors: A Test of the Arbitrage Pricing Theory in the Nigerian Stock Market. European Journal of Business and Management, 4(15), 66-76
Izedonmi, F. & Abdullahi, B. (2011). The Effects of Macroeconomic Factors on the Nigerian Stock Returns: A Sectorial Approach. Global Journal of Management and Business Research, 11(7), 24-30
Jecheche, P. (2012). An Empirical Investigation of Arbitrage Pricing Theory: A Case of Zimbabwe. Research in Business and Economics Journal, 6(1).
Jewczyn, N. (2014). Theory and Portfolios: An Economic History of MPT and APT, International Journal of Economics & Social Sciences, 3(2).
Kaul, G. (1987). Stock Returns and Inflation: The Role of the Monetary Sector. Journal of Financial Economics, 18, 253-276
Khilji, N. M. (1993). The Behaviour of Stock Return in an Emerging Market: A Case Study of Pakistan. Pakistan Development Review, 32(4), 593-604.
Khilji, N. M. (1994). Non-linear Dynamics and Chaos: Application to Financial Market in Pakistan. Pakistan Development Review, 3(4), 1417-1429.
Kutty, G. (2010). The Relationship between Exchange Rates and Stock Prices: The Case of Mexico. North American Journal of Finance and Banking Research, 4(4), 1-20
Kuwormu, J. K. A. & Onwusu-Nantwi, V. (2011). Macroeconomic Variables and Stock Market Returns: Full Information Maximum Likelihood Estimation. Research Journal of Finance and Accounting, 2(4), 49-63
Loflund, I. (1992). Arbitrage Pricing Theory in a Small Open Economy: Empirical Evidence from the Swedish Stock Market. For skningsrapport, Svenska Handelshogskolan, Helsingborg
MacKinlay, A. C. (1995). Multi-factor Models do not explain Deviations from the CAPM. Journal of Financial Economics, 38, 3-28
Martikainen, T., Yli-Olli, P. & Gunasekaran, A. (1991). Incremental Significance of Pre-specified Macroeconomic Factors in Testing the Arbitrage Pricing Theory: Empirical Evidence with Finnish Data. Applied Financial Economics, 1, 139-147
Masood, S. & Sarwar, S. (2015). Relationship between Stock Prices and Exchange Rates: A Bivariate and Multivariate Analysis from Pakistan’s Economy. International Affairs and Global Strategy, 32, 1-20
Nishat, M. & Shaheen, R. (2004). Macroeconomic Factors and Pakistani Equity Market. The Pakistan Development Review, 43(4), 619-637
Nyong, M. O. (1996). Capital Market Development and Long-Run Economic Growth: Theory, Evidence and Policy Proposal for another Development Strategy, In J.E.U. Ndebbio & U.Essia (Eds.), Nigeria and Development Strategy,129-155, Calabar: But-Bass Educational Book
Obamiro, J. K. (2005). Nigerian Economy: Growth and the Role of Stock Market. Journal of Economic and Financial Studies, 2(2)
Ogboi, C. & Oladipo, S. O. (2012). Stock Market and Economic Growth: The Nigerian Experience. Research Journal of Finance and Accounting, 3(4), 103-110
Ogun, T. P. & Iyoha, F. O. (2005). The Nigerian Stock Market and the Future Economic Activity: Does Deregulation of the Financial Market makes any Difference? Union Digest, 9(1&2), 31-47
Ogunkola, E. & Abubakar, T. (2008). Monetary Policy Transmission Mechanism in SierraLeone: A Vector Error Correction Approach, Ibadan: CEAR
Osinubi, T. S. & Amaghionyediowe, L. A. (2003). Stock Market Development and Long-Run Growth in Nigeria. Journal of African Business, 4(3), 103-129
Ostermark, U. (1989). Arbitrage Pricing Models for two Scandinavian Stock Markets. Omega International Journal of Management Science, 20(4), 46-67
Phillips, P. C. B. (1995). Fully Modified Least Squares and Vector Autoregression, Econometrica, 63(5), 1023-1078, September
Phillips, P. & Hansen, B. (1990). Statistical Inference in Instrumental Variables Regression with I (1) Processes, Review of Economic Studies, 57, 99-125
Reilly, F. K. & Brown, K. C. (2003). Investment Analysis and Portfolio Management, Ohio, USA: Thomson South-Western
Roll, R. & Ross, S. A. (1980). An empirical investigation of the Arbitrage Pricing Theory. Journal of Finance, 35, 1073-1103
Rosenberg, B. (1981). The Capital Asset Pricing model and the Market model. Journal of Portfolio Management, 7(2), 5-16. Winter
Ross, S. A. (1976). The Arbitrage Pricing Theory of Capital Asset Pricing. Journal of Economic Theory, 13, 341- 360
Schulmerich, M. (2012a). The Efficient Frontier on Modern Portfolio Theory: Weaknesses and how to overcome them, In Investments and Wealth monitor, 27-32, Greenwood Village: IMCA
Schulmerich, M., Leporcher, Y. M. & Eu, C. H. (2015). Modern Portfolio Theory and Its Problems. In Applied Asset and Risk Management, Springer Berlin Heidelberg, 101-173
Singh, T., Mehta, S. & Varsha, M. S. (2011).Macroeconomic Factors and Stock Returns: Evidence from Taiwan. Journal of Economics and International Finance, 2(4), 210-217, April
Stulz, R. M. (1986). Asset Pricing and Expected Inflation. Journal of Finance, 41, 209-223.
Uanguta, E. & Ikhide, S. (2002). Monetary Policy Transmission Mechanism in Namibia, Bank of Namibia (BON). Working Paper, No 2/02
Yli-Olli, P., Virtanen I. & Martikainen, T. (1990). Common Factors in the Arbitrage Pricing Model in Two Scandinavian Countries. OMEGA International Journal of Management Science, 18, 615-624.
Zubair, A. (2013). Causal Relationship between Stock Market Index and Exchange Rate: Evidence from Nigeria. CBN Journal of Applied Statistics, 4(2), 87-110
Published
2017-03-12
How to Cite
J., O. O., & Olufemi, A. P. (2017). A Robust Application of the Arbitrage Pricing Theory: Evidence from Nigeria. Journal of Economics and Behavioral Studies, 9(1(J), 141-151. https://doi.org/10.22610/jebs.v9i1(J).1565
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Research Paper
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