An Appraisal of the National Economic Empowerment and Development Strategy I (NEEDS I) in Nigeria: The Educational Perspective

: This paper set out to assess the performance of the National Economic Empowerment and Development Strategy (NEEDS I) in Nigeria in relation to its educational goals. These goals include; increasing enrolment in primary and secondary schools, improving the quality of education, and increasing funding to this critical sector. Several economic reform programmes in Nigeria have been abandoned not because they had no accomplishments, but largely as a result of paucity of studies assessing them. No paper in the Nigerian literature has appraised the NEEDS I vis-à-vis its stated educational objectives. This paper therefore fills this void. In realizing the objective of this study, I adopted the before and after approach, which involves comparing educational performance indicators before the initiation of the NEEDSI and during the programme. The findings revealed improved performance of educational indicators such as female enrolment in primary schools, adult literacy rate, primary school completion rate, and Senior Secondary School Certificate Examinations during the NEEDS programme, although achievements were modest. Budgetary allocation to the sector as a proportion of total budget was below 10 per cent and less than the 25 per cent UNESCO recommendation. Funding to this sector should be increased and monitored in order to achieve sustainable improvements in educational outcomes. Completion rate in secondary school was also low. This paper therefore suggests the extension of the universal basic education scheme to the senior secondary level to reduce drop-out rates.


Introduction
The need to reduce poverty incidence has been a huge challenge facing the Nigerian government. Data from the World Bank quoted poverty incidence at 62.6% in 2010. Poverty in Nigeria is multi-faceted and manifests in joblessness, deprivation of basic needs of life, lack of access to credit, inability to exercise political rights amongst others (NPC 2004). In 1999, when the nation transitioned from a military regime to a democratic government, hopes of the masses were raised. There were indications that succor had come at last for the poor with the initiation of programmes such as the Poverty Alleviation Programme (PAP) and National Poverty Eradication Programme (NAPEP) in 2000 and 2001 correspondingly. The democratic government inherited an economy that had been bedeviled in moral, economic, socio, and political decadence. Poverty rate was 70 per cent, and the country was ranked by the Transparency International as the second most corrupt nation in the world 1 . Annual growth of per capita GDP (an indicator of economic development) was -1.3%, compared to sub-Saharan Africa's and Ghana's 0.1% and 2.1% respectively (African Development Indicators 2007). Similarly educational performance indicators were on the down-side. The education sector was under-funded, adult literacy rate was 57%, and primary school pupil-teacher ratio was high at 41:1. It therefore came as no surprise in 2004 when the Nigerian government launched the first phase of the National Economic Empowerment and Development Strategy (NEEDS) program. This short term policy lapsed in 2007, and second phase (NEEDS 2) was harmonized with the Seven-Point Agenda. The latter has as one of its goals, revitalization of the education sector. NEEDS was posed by the government as her poverty reduction strategy.
The reform programme was different from other poverty alleviation programmes that had been embarked upon in the past, in that the planning process was highly participatory in nature (NPC 2004). The goals of NEEDS were poverty reduction, employment generation, wealth creation and value re-orientation. One of the thrusts of the reform was people empowerment which can be achieved through increased access to quality education. The role of human capital, particularly education in stimulating economic growth and development has been emphasized in the literature 2 . For instance, Vinod and Kaushik (2007) found that increase in literacy level drives gross domestic product in Nigeria. It is therefore surprising that no study in the Nigerian literature of which I am aware have assessed the performance of the NEEDS I programme in relation to its stated educational goals. This paper therefore fills this void. A study of this nature could provide policy input into addressing the shortcomings in the education sector and identify areas that needed urgent attention. This study therefore appraises the National Economic Empowerment and Development Strategy I in order to determine to what extent its stated educational objectives were achieved. The rest of the paper is structured as follows. The next section provides some background on the Nigerian education sector before the launching of NEEDS I in 2004. Section three gives a brief review of the assessment of NEEDS in Nigeria, while the methodology is presented in section four. Section five discusses the findings. Policy suggestions are proffered in section six. Education expenditure as a % of total budget Source : Drawn using data from CBN Annual Report and Statement of Account of various years.  1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 Adult literacy rate % Source: Drawn using data from CBN Annual Report and Statement of Account of various years Table 1: Primary school pupil-teacher ratio  Primary school pupil-teacher ratio  1989  NA  1990  36  1991  37  1992  39  1993  27  1994  37  1995  36  1996  35  1997  40  1998  38  1999  41  2000  43  2001  39  2002  40  2003 43 Source: Economic and Social Statistics Bulletin (FOS) 1986(FOS) , 1999(FOS) , 2006 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 Enrolment in Primary schools Source: Drawn using data from National Bureau of Statistics of various years Figure 1 charts the total allocation to the education sector (capital and recurrent) as a proportion of the total budget in Nigeria between 1992 and 2003, before the launching of NEEDS I. Apparent is the steady rise in the trend of the education disbursement from 1992 to 1995, after which high instability manifested. The chart also shows that education expenditure reached a peak of 9.2% in 2002. This indicates that from 1992 to 2003, the United Nations Educational Scientific Organisation (UNESCO) requirement, which stipulated that developing countries should spend at least 25% of their annual budget on education, was not achieved. Figure 2 shows the adult literacy rate among people who are 15 years and above in Nigeria. From 1989 to 1995 there was a slow growth in the literacy rate. After 1995, a constant trend at 57% was observed till 2003. This suggests that in 14 years, the adult literacy rate only grew by 6.9%.

Background
In Table 1, the pupil-teacher ratio is depicted. The pupil-teacher ratio which measures the quality of education and learning condition deteriorated between 1989 and 2003. In 1990, one teacher was available to 36 students in primary schools, while in 2003, it increased to 43 students. Figure 3 shows the continuous decline in the contribution of the education sector to the real gross domestic product. Nevertheless, it is too early to make relative comparisons with the performance during the NEEDS, as this is the major goal of this paper.

Literature Review
The literature on the assessment of the performance of the National Economic Empowerment and Development Strategy I in Nigeria is scanty. A large number of studies on the topic are discursive and only appraised its theoretical underpinning, and how realistic the targets are. However, few authors have used descriptive method to assess the reform programme. A plausible reason for the inadequate empirical literature on this topic is the brevity of the programme. This suggests a small sample size, thus making a comprehensive empirical study difficult. Since the goal of this study is to appraise the performance of NEEDS I, I shall focus more on studies that have used data to assess the performance of NEEDS I, and less on those that critiqued the framework of the reform. This is necessary in order to make comparison with the findings of this study. Falokun & Adeoye (2006) examined the performance of NEEDS I with respect to its stated sectoral targets. They used data on sector contribution to the gross domestic product, employment generation, and other indicators. The authors argued that the reform did not increase the agriculture sector's contribution to economic growth as specified in the NEEDS I document. They also observed a decline in employment generation in this sector. Similarly, the target of increasing the annual growth in the manufacturing sector by 7% was not achieved. It was pointed out that NEEDS was unable to improve the potential linkages of the manufacturing sector in terms of its employment and export capabilities. One major goal of the NEEDS I, which was to diversify the productive base of the economy away from crude-oil was also not met. As argued by the authors, oil revenue still constituted 80% and 90% of revenue generated and exports respectively. However, the performance of the service sector improved, with its contribution to the GDP increasing from 11.2% in 2003 to 13.8% in 2004. Adeyemo et al. (2008) challenged the ideological underpinning and framework of the NEEDS. According to them, the document did not clearly identify any ideology for achieving its stated development goals. They criticized the plan for failing to incorporate the lingering issue of inequality in the system and further imbalance in equity which the short term plan could arouse. Marcellus (2009) extended the literature by assessing the performance of the NEEDS in Nigeria between 2003 and 2007. Unlike the previous study, he used some data to support his arguments and concluded that the programme did not achieve more than past development plans in the country. Specifically, the author argued that the goals of poverty reduction, wealth creation, employment generation, and value-reorientation were not accomplished. More recently, Bambale (2011) evaluated the NEEDS I in relation to its poverty goals and utilized more data than Marcellus (2009). His assessment of the performance of NEEDS is mixed. On the upside, he argued that the average growth rate recorded during the NEEDS surpassed its annual target of 6%, foreign direct investment also increased, and substantial part of the nation's foreign debt was written-off. On the flip side, he argued that poverty incidence and living standard worsened during the reform. Two salient inferences are apparent from the reviewed literature. The first is that no comprehensive study has been done on the appraisal of the NEEDS I, particularly with respect to the education sector. Secondly, the existing findings are not explicit enough to reach a conclusion on the performance of the reform programme. Given this scarcity of evidence, some questions still remain for analysis. How did the education sector perform during the NEEDS I? Were the set goals of increasing school enrolment, raising adult literacy level, amongst others achieved? This paper provides answers to these questions.

Methodology
My approach follows the before and after comparison method and the actual versus target technique in assessing the performance of the education sector under the National Economic Empowerment and Development Strategy (NEEDS I). This technique was adopted by Ojo (1988) and Falokun & Adeoye (2006). Specifically, this paper draws largely from Ojo (1988) in which the author used this method to appraise the Structural Adjustment Programme (SAP) in Nigeria in relation to the agriculture sector. The choice of this method is informed by the short duration of the NEEDS I programme, which makes it difficult for any meaningful empirical analysis to be carried out with such a small observation. The before and after technique compares variables of interest in the period before and after a reform. The actual-versus-target approach however compares actual programme performance key variables to the targets set in the programme. The success of the programme is then measured by the extent to which program targets are achieved. Along this line, I investigated the impact of NEEDS on the education sector in Nigeria using descriptive method. In doing this, the study examined the relevant educational performance indicators such as: total education expenditure, primary and secondary schools enrolment, gender-enrolment ratio, pupil-teacher ratio, adult literacy rate e.t.c. These indicators were examined critically with respect to NEEDS educational objectives which included increased education funding, increased enrolment in schools, especially among female students, and improvement in the quality of education. The data used were sourced from the Nigeria National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), Central Bank of Nigeria Statistical Bulletins and Annual Reports, and Statistical Information on Basic Education in Nigeria.

Results and Discussion
One major goal of the NEEDS was to reduce poverty. This was to be achieved through a set of macroeconomic framework which included people empowerment. Restructuring and investing in the Nigerian education sector is one way to empower people as highlighted in the NEEDS document. In this respect, I have analyzed the effects of NEEDS on the education sector by examining to what extent its stated objectives of increasing primary and secondary school enrolment, improving the quality of education, achieving adult literacy rate of 65 per cent by 2007, and increasing funding to the sector were achieved between 2004 and 2007. Table 2 shows the total disbursement to the education sector in Nigeria before the inception of NEEDS I and during the programme. One of the objectives of the reform was to restructure the education sector by increasing its budgetary allocation.    It is apparent that when it appears that nominal allocations to the education sector have increased substantially over the years, the relative weight of these allocations was low. This is shown by the total education expenditure as a percentage of total government expenditure, in table 2. We would note that it ranged between 3.33% and 9.21%. It has been much lower than the 25 percent recommended by the United Nations Educational Scientific Organization (UNESCO). Education expenditure as a percentage of total government expenditure in pre-NEEDS period average 6.3%, compared to 7.2% in NEEDS period. The trend of education expenditure as a percentage of total budget was unstable in the pre-NEEDS period as shown in table 2. In the NEEDS period, a rising trend was observed from 6.1% in 2004 to 8.41% in 2007. It however declined to 6.9% in 2008.   Figure 6 and table 3 both show a slow, but rising trend in primary school enrolment in Nigeria. Enrolment increased marginally by 19% between 1999 and 2008, with an average growth rate of just 2.6%. Declines in enrolment were recorded in 2004, 2007, and 2008. Enrolment in the pre-NEEDS and NEEDS period increased by 43% and 1.1% correspondingly. Increased enrolment in the pre-NEEDS period can be attributed to the launching of the Universal Basic Education in 1999, which provided free education at the primary school level up to the junior high school. The modest increase in enrolment could be partly explained by low enrolment in some States which may have contributed in slowing down the national growth rate of primary school enrolment. Table 4 presents enrolment in primary school in Abia, Kano and Oyo states representing the Eastern, Northern, and Western part of Nigeria respectively. Between 1999 and 2008, primary school enrolment in Abia-state declined by 56.4%, female enrolment dominated except in 2004 and 2005, and primary six completion rate dropped by almost half. This trend is not unexpected as men in the Eastern states of Nigeria are known to give more priority to business activities than education. In addition male children are introduced in their childhood years to business, thus leading to high drop-out rates. In the West, proxied by Oyo-state, enrolment increased by 15.7%, primary six completion rate rose significantly and female enrolment equally matched with male. Enrolment also increased in Kano-state. Nevertheless, primary six completion rate declined and male enrolment dominated female in all the years under observation. This trend can be attributed to the pronounced religious bias against the education of women in this region. Overall, primary school enrolment in Oyo and Kano states increased by 15.7% and 45.2% respectively, while it declined by 56.4% in Abia state between 1999 and 2008.  Table 3 further shows that in the pre-NEEDS period, female enrolment in primary schools average 44.3%. It however increased marginally to an average of 45.3% in the NEEDS period. Similarly, the gender ratio which reflects the balance in male-female enrolment stood at 85.1% at the end of the NEEDS programme in 2007. A gender ratio of 100% indicates parity in male-female enrolment.   Despite the high overall post-primary school enrolment between 1999 and 2008, completion rate was very low. It average 32.2%. Similarly, in the pre-NEEDS and during the NEEDS programme, completion rates were 26% and 38% respectively. A major inference that can be drawn from this is that despite the modest increase in enrolment, drop-out rate was very high. Comparing primary school with post-primary school completion rates, the data shows a higher rate of completion of primary education. For instance between 1999 and 2008 completion rates in primary and post-primary schools were 87.4% and 32.2% correspondingly. High completion rate in the primary schools could be largely explained by the free basic education in primary schools. This free basic education does not extend to the senior secondary level. However, cost of education is high at this level of education and students often drop-out to engage in activities that will supplement family income. Also, between 1999 and 2008, males completing SSS3 dominated the female. This may be traced to the fact that since educational cost at this level is not free and also expensive, female students drop-out either to assist with family businesses or farm. Also they are married-off at this age or leave school because of teenage pregnancy (UNICEF 2007). Access to learning in post-primary schools as shown by the pupil-teacher ratio in table 5 improved in the NEEDS and pre-NEEDS period by 14.7% and 10.5% respectively. Teacherpupil ratio of 29 was achieved in 2007 at the termination of the NEEDS I programme. This was a major improvement over the pupil-teacher ratio of 38 in 1999. The performances of secondary school students in the senior secondary school certificate examinations (SSSCE) between 1999 and 2008 is presented in table 6 .This is used to proxy the quality of education in secondary schools in Nigeria.
The performance of students in the two core subjects; Mathematics and English-Language are examined. A careful look at table 6 shows an overall poor performance in English Language, although there were some improvements over the years. In 1999, only 9.7% of those who registered for English-Language passed, while the figure increased to a peak of 34.9% in 2008. An intuition that can be drawn from this is that, barring other effects, each year at least 65% of these students did not gain admission into universities. This is because a credit pass in English-Language is required for entry into the university, In the pre-NEEDS period, average credit pass was 20% compared to 30% during NEEDS programme. This poor trend was mirrored in Mathematics, another core subject. However, there was a slight improvement in the performance over English language in the review period. Only 18.2% of students who sat for mathematics passed in 1999. In 2008 the statistic rose to 57%. Similarly, in the pre-NEEDS period, 31.8% passed, while during the NEEDS period, it increased to 40%. The modest improvement in the performances of students in both subjects during the NEEDS I period reflects the educational accomplishments recorded in the NEEDS I programme.

Conclusion and Policy Suggestions
The performance of the education sector in Nigeria during the National Economic Empowerment and Development Strategy I (NEEDS I) as indicated by the educational indicators suggest modest improvement over pre-NEEDS years. Although funds earmarked to the education sector did not increase much, a sustained steady and rising growth rate was apparent during the NEEDS I period. Another accomplishment during NEEDS I was the observed gradual increase and decline in the capital and recurrent expenditure component respectively. This indicated increased spending on the dilapidated physical structures and other capital educational inputs. Primary schools are still characterized by low enrolments, although completion rate is high. Increasing number of female students is also enrolling. The quality of education in primary schools as suggested by the average pupil-teacher ratio is on the upside. In secondary schools, despite the increase in enrolments, completion rate is still low, although some improvements were recorded during the NEEDS programme. Performances of students in the Senior Secondary School Certificate Examinations also improved during the NEEDS programme, albeit modestly.
Based on these findings, it is suggested that educational spending need to be increased substantially in order to achieve greater educational outcomes. Simultaneously, misappropriation of these funds should also be checked and minimized. Efforts should also be made to keep students in schools and curb drop-out rates, particularly at the secondary level. One way of achieving this is to extend the free universal basic education scheme to the senior secondary levels. Apart from the extension of the free universal basic Act, other factors that are known to aid drop-out rates such as lack of educational accessories including uniforms, shoes and proximity of schools to villages should be addressed. Scholarships for girls should be provided to ease the burden of educational financing on parents in order increase girls' enrolments in the Northern part of Nigeria, where there is a high bias toward female-child education. Similarly, strategies to keep male students in school in the Eastern Nigeria should be adopted. By doing this, a balanced school enrolment and completion rates are achieved in all the geo-political zones in the country. The Child Rights Act adopted by Nigeria in 2003 should be enforced and strict penalties imposed on those who still engage children in child labour activities. .